Brazil: Serie A betting tip: Juventude- Chapecoense
Jul 26, 2021
Brazil: Serie A: Juventude- Chapecoense
Juventude were playing third tier football in 2019 , but back to back promotions have seen them back in the top flight for the first time in 13 years. It is a great comeback for the club and a fantastic story, but consecutive promotions are not common, they came up third with 12 points less than both America-MG and today's opponents Chapecoense and it would be a little unusual were the rapid rise not to catch up with Juventude at some stage. Ahead of a home game with Palmeiras last month which they lost 3-0 I spoke about the makeup of their squad and it looked and still feels more like a lower level group .........
These midweek games, once the season gets a few games in and teams start to reach maximum fitness and full potential, so from here on in, is when the bigger clubs have a huge advantage, especially against struggling/newly promoted teams and Juventude meet that criteria and Palmeiras the former as one of the biggest clubs in Brazil. Juventude has the lowest value squad in Serie A (Palmeiras is some 12-13 times greater) , also one of the smallest and oldest and it is not a great "treble" .
They are 14th this morning, two points clear of the drop zone with this game in hand on most teams and you do suspect they would have been very happy with that at this stage, coming into the campaign.
The visitors will be mortified by their own position, sitting bottom of the table and winless with just four points and in danger of getting cast adrift at this early stage. They have done us a couple of favours, but only away from Chapeco and at name teams (away to Flamengo and Fortaleza), on home soil they seem unable to impose themselves and they are coming off a 3-2 home loss to Cuiaba where they led twice and I detailed that road form ............
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Chapecoense are still winless (as are Cuiaba too) and seem only to be able to score and play with more freedom on the road and I touched upon that ahead of a trip to two time champion Flamengo last weekend..........
This is Chapecoense's first away start since that 3-2 loss at Fortaleza which served our purposes well and ahead of which I wrote ..............
Chapecoense were promoted last season as champions after just one year in the Serie B wilderness, most neutrals were thrilled with that and have a soft spot for the club after the horrendous Medellín plane crash in 2016. They took just one point and conceded six goals in their first three games this season and a record of 0-4-3 implies that they are still struggling, but I am going to take a different slant on things and say they are on the up, have now come to terms with the higher level and are a team we should be looking closely at and keeping on our side.
Those four draws have all come in their last five starts and three came on the road to very strong opposition, São Paulo, CAM and Atletico Paranaense, each was a score draw and no rearguard standoff as Chape "won" BC's in each and by a total 8-3. They have scored five road goals, it should be six and xGF suggests they should have scored an additional four this season, placing them 8th and given the degree of difficulty of opposition, we have to take note. Remember, it is not all about today, but what we can learn for the future, every team we discuss has a limitless number of upcoming games, but only one on the day in question.
This is another tough away game for them and they are a long way from home (3,700 km) and we know that Fortaleza are decent, but the hosts should also have conceded four more goals (xGA) and my feeling is that Chapecoense are not only better than results suggest, but on the up.
I am hoping that another road trip will inspire them to play with greater freedom as they are clearly struggling with the additional pressure on them as hosts currently.
Pre season title favourites Flamengo have lost both their way and 4/6 starts, including 3 of their last 4 and they have conceded in their last 4 home games. They will be under huge pressure today to get back to winning ways and get a couple of key players back from international duty, but remain without Everton Ribeiro and Gabriel Barbosa who were in the Brazil squad for last night's Copa final. I am expecting Chape to play their part in an open, high scoring encounter.
Chapecoense led in the second half and played pretty well creating as much as Flamengo, but found a way to lose 2-1, it suited our purposes well enough (although one more goal in the game would have been better). They are now back in Chapeco and have to find a way to start winning as host, you cannot survive in Brazil without winning home games, especially against fellow strugglers and they meet one today in Cuiaba, who were promoted at the same time last season. The visitors are one place and two points better off, but Chape could lift tehmselves off the bottom with the win and that feels like a huge incentive and this is an opponent they know well and one they have recorded positive results against as host and this game has a draw a line in the sand feel about it. XGF puts Cuiaba on 0.78 pg, Chape on 1.42 and they just have to make that greater offensive threat tell today.
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It really is an amazing run of results, with Chapecoense unable to record a home result , but having played Sao Paulo, AMG, CAP, Fortaleza and Flamengo on the road , which are amongst the five toughest away days in Brazil and drawn the first three, led in the other two, largely dominated statistically and scored in each, seven total, conceding "just" nine. It is very hard to see how they are not going to continue that scoring trend today and their need is greater and I expect them to set up with greater ambition than Juventude, who are the better of the two defensively, but who have only scored eight goals.
Juventude are averaging 0.87 xGF at home, Chapecoense 1.6 xGF on the road ,despite 5 of their six away starts coming against top 6 teams ! Those are incredible numbers for a team with 4 points from a possible 36 and no reason to give up on them just yet.
The hosts are the #20 ranked second half team in Serie A, with a -10 goals difference after the break (next worst is -6), Chapecoense are the #6 ranked second half away team with three "wins" and only Bragantino and Fortaleza have more, so even if things do not go their way early, further encouraging signs that they can eventually come out on top and/or offer good value "in running".
2 units Chapecoense level ball 2.77 asian line.
Good luck !
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