Busy day today with six match previews for clubgowi subscribers, you can read one of those below. It is probably the least detailed, but is a good sample of what I am looking for and trying to provide, which is staying ahead of the market/oddsmakers. Looking for teams that are under/over valued and following them for a game or 2-3-4 until the market catches up, maybe going back to them later in the campaign. I saw a recent Corinthians game (which they won 2-0) and spotted something, an issue/possible weakness, which I wrote about at the time, one game doesn't mean much, but they lost comfortably next time out and again, the same problems were evident. No point in being modest, I think I am fantastic in picking up on things like this and quickly (which is key) and that is why I always urge subscribers to take a few minutes, read the previews fully as there is often something in there which you can use not just on the day in question, but in the future. I don't have to be right about Corinthians on this occasion, but I am correct more times than not and that is all we should be trying to do, putting ourselves in good positions as often as possible.
Brazil Serie A: Corinthians - Cruzeiro
Briefly, I wrote on Saturday ...............
Tough week for Botafogo, visiting champions Corinthians in midweek and now a derby game with league leaders Flamengo . They lost the first 2-0 , but 'won' the attempts on goals 24-8. on target 8-3, inside box 15-2 (!!), big chances 6-0 (!) and saves 1-8 and have to be considered a very unlucky loser. Of course Corinthians scored very early and are never too gung ho, but it was actually pretty open, Botofogo were very good from crosses and set pieces and created several golden opportunities and this looks a problem area for Corinthians. For probably 85 minutes Boto were on top and on another day would have scored (seriously) 3-4 goals. I do not know if that says more about Corinthians, but as they have only conceded 3 in 7 home games total , probably not.
Botafogo lost 2-0 at Flamengo, Corinthians 3-1 away to Sao Paulo , where I should have gone with the evidence of my own eyes and opposed them. SP also hit the woodwork from a free kick of which there were many (Corinthians giving up 12 more fouls than SP, many in and around the box) and the opener dierct from a corner, after they had just created a big opportunity from a cross. This is clearly a big issue for Corinthians who also have a couple of players being targetted by other clubs and who might be distracted, Angel Romero is said to be wanted by West Ham (comes from a good source) and makes sense as former team mate central defender Fabian Balbuena has already signed for the Hammers this month.
Cruzeiro are good, late last season I wrote .........
My stats suggest that Cruzeiro are one of the two best teams in Brazil, probably better than champions Corinthians, they gave up too much ground early (15 points adrift after 11 games !) , but are comfortably top 5 despite not needing points now (or for recent weeks) as they have won the Copa do Brasil and alreday claimed a Copa Libertadores group place . However, they are good, so can play at even 80-90% and still beat most teams and when they really put their mind to it.........anyone !
They are currently 4th, six points behind leaders Flamengo but in position for a big push, their numbers are again good, they have created more attempts home and away from inside the box than 13 of 14 opponents , only coming up short when they played a half with ten men and within those stats have created 13 and 14 more attempts in h2h games than two top 12 opponents, which are very unusual levels of superiority and make eyecatching reading.
1.75 units Cruzeiro -0.25 ball 2.20 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
