Brazil: Serie A: Chapecoense- Santos
We discussed Chapecoense several times through May-June and, following their first win of the campaign, over leaders Flamengo I noted ........
Well, that win came there with Chapecoense recording an unlikely late victory to edge it 3-2, Fla started slowly, but looked to be well on top before Chapeco scored their first two and the three home goals could all have been avoided, two errors, one very weak penalty and on another (most) days Fla would have won. Having said that Chapeco played quite well for periods and are strong aerially and from set pieces and they will probably not lose many home games, but on the road it is a different matter and this is a game Inter should win.
Then, prior to a home game with Ceara and following a 3-1 loss at Fluminense............
Chapeco had 16 attempts, 12 inside the box, five on target , so, not bad numbers and passing stats were good. Both teams also hit the woodwork and I think that Chapeco are better offensively that what we usually see from any bottom 3-4 team in Brazil, but they have conceded three more than anyone else. They play two road games after this and I am expecting a motivated performance.
They won that 2-0, it could/should have been 3-1/ 4-1 . They then went to Atletico Mineiro a few days later and despite playing just shy of an hour a man short, they twice came from behind with that disadvantage to draw 3-3, a fine point and they also hit the woodwork.
Finally ahead of a trip to Vitoria and home game with Corinthians ...........Those offensive comments remain, they can score against anyone and are not a team I would rush to oppose , as scoring goals always gives you a puncher's chance, but defensively they will ship a lot too, especially on the road. Add in the fact that after the 3,000 km round trip to Belo Horizonte, they now make double that to Salvador and back and we are going to have a tired group of players and they host champions Corinthians this coming weekend and, now that they have a road point, I think that will take priority, they might throw everything at Vitoria for 45 minutes , see what happens, but a good chance they will ease off after that and/or tire.
They lost the first 1-0 (their only defeat in six) and beat last year's champions 2-0 and went into the break with encouraging back to back clean sheets ( 0-0 away to America ). This last midweek they hosted Bahia and had to settle for just a point in a substandard showing, that is not good enough, they remain unbetaen at home and know that is where you survive and pick up points, but that was two dropped and increases pressure on them to win today, with three super tough fixtures up next.
Santos are a team we have milked in home fixtures after the last 3-4 seasons and ahead of a visit from Vitoria early last month I wrote ...........
I touched upon about the openness (even beyond the scoreline ) of Vitoria's 3-2 home midweek loss to Internacional in yesterday's newsletter. They now have at least attempt to make up those lost points and we can expect them to look for something today, despite Santos being a super tough host. I previewed their home game with Parana last month, highlighting their fearsome record here................
Santos have started poorly and sit just two points above Parana, however, they have only played one home game (2-0 win) and it is on home soil where most A teams thrive and where Santos are especially strong, something we have discussed a LOT and milked over 4-5 seasons. Over the last three they are 43-9-6 at home, posting a 74.14% win rate and averaging 1.9 goals per game. They are dealing with the loss of star playmaker Lucas Lima (now Palmeiras), but Gariel Barbosa (Gabigol) is back from Europe where things did not work out and eager to get his still very young career back on track. Santos made the decision to go with a strong line up in their midweek Copa do Brasil game and look to get some confidence back after a heavy road defeat last week and that paid off with a 5-1 win, they created a host of chances with Gabigol scoring a hat-trick, his first goals since his return. I expect him to get on the score sheet and Santos to win this by 2+. The hosts have been distracted by the Copa Libertadores, but have secured qualification now to the knockout stage, which they can forget until August, so it should all be about matters domestic.
They won that 3-1, but have subsequently lost all three starts without scoring, including one at home to Cruzeiro , but they meet nothing of that quality today, or of any of those three opponents to be honest and now, desperately need to win again. They travel to champions Corinthians and a strong Fluminese in the next two midweeks and really have to take some pressure off those. But equally, Vitoria might view Santos as at their most vulnerable and I suspect we will see two teams looking for maximum points. This is traditionally a high scoring fixture (last three meetings here all 4+ goals) and this can follow suit, probably a home win with both teams scoring.
That played out well with Santos winning 5-2, but they are a very different team on the road 1-1-4 in away starts with just 3 goals scored , they have actually scored just 12 in 19 games as visitor despite finishing third in Serie A last season and whilst they are better than 15th place currently indicates, are vulnerable away from Santos. They host the league leaders in three days who will be better rested having played last night and then struggling America and it is those two fixtures which will be given greater priority, that is the Brazilian way and teams in need (Santos are just a point above the drop zone) almost always adopt a pragmatic approach. That is not to say that they will not try today, but if and when they fall behind, thoughts can quickly switch to the upcoming games. Additionally they are without suspended midfielder Alison and they have just one win in the nine starts he has missed in the last 12 months.
1.75 units Chapecoense -0.25 ball 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
