Brazil: Serie A betting tip: Chapecoense- Atletico Paranaense
Sep 13, 2018
Brazil: Serie A: Chapecoense- Atletico Paranaense
I often speak about the gruelling schedule of almost all teams in Brazil and Atletico Paranaense have got the short straw this round. They played in Belo Horizonte on Monday evening, losing 3-1 to Atletico Mineiro which is a 2,000 km round trip and are tonight in Chapeco which is a very short trip from Curitiba in Brazilian terms, but one I doubt you can make by plane, so 7 hours on the road. They are two tough games inside three days with a lot of travel, actually this is their third away game in little over a week and the first two have been v top 5 teams and with very limited preparation time for this fixture. AP also have a home game with Fluminense on Sunday and have to at least play today with that in mind to some extent. They were in very good form until that trip to Palmeiras last midweek and we had been siding with them for several weeks, my notes on their home game with Bahia which preceded the road trips are reproduced at the foot of this email. AP won that 2-0 and that was their seventh home victory, but they are 0-5-7 on the road and have scored just three times away from Curitiba ( 9 in their last 21).
Chapecoense whom everyone has a soft spot for after the 2016 plane crash are in trouble, two points from safety with only "doomed" Parana below them in the table, but they have this game in hand on most and would move out of the drop zone with the win this evening. They have lost only once on home soil, but have drawn too many games ( 4-5-1), they have 5/6 games here in Chapeco starting today and need to win three you feel to survive, you could make a case for this being the "easiest" and failure to claim three points is going to put huge pressure on them for the visit of league leaders Internacional on Monday. That sole home defeat came in their last start here, a 2-1 loss to Palmeiras , a game played in awful conditions on a very heavy pitch, waterlogged in places. As usual and this is something we have covered before, Chapecoense posed a huge aerial threat should have drawn missed a huge chance late in the game and think offensively they match up pretty well with AP who were vulnerable to crosses from AMG on Monday , the hosts had two big chances from them before their opener which came from an unchallenged cross /header from the penalty spot .
1.75 units Chapecoense -0.25 ball 2.15 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
Brazil: Serie A: Atletico Paranaense- Bahia (written September 2nd)
I opposed Bahia at Ceara in midweek where my notes mainly focussed on the hosting team but included ............
Ceara won that 1-0 and have conceded just three goals in four subsequent starts, three draws and a 1-0 defeat at league leaders Sao Paulo over last weekend, where they held out for 78 minutes, so again a team with not many goals in them, but incredibly difficult to score against and they have given up the 9th fewest in Serie A. Ceara have taken 9 points from 5 unbeaten starts against fellow bottom 8 teams in the last six weeks and will like their cahnces today against a Bahia side who arrive 5 points better off in 15th, but with a poor road record of 0-3-6 (scoring three goals total). The visitors have also had to make 1,100 km trip up to Fortaleza where it is almost always hot and sticky looking to win for just the second time in ten starts and having scored just once in circa 400 minutes of football.
Bahia actually won 2-0, but Ceara dominated every single stat category and the visitors rode their luck. However, the three points have given Bahia a degree of safety for the time being and I expect their main attention to be on the midweek home game with Sport Recife. Today they are on the road again and will have travelled 4,500 km inside five days ahead of this game.
Atletico Paranaense are a team very much on the up and ahead of their midweek win over Vasco da Gama I wrote .........
Ahead of a home game with highfling Flamengo 10 days ago I touched upon the huge improvement made by Atletico Paranaense............
22 points separate these two , Flamengo are pushing Sao Paulo hard for the title and Atletico Paranaense battling to finish above four teams and are currently four points from safety. However, it is hard not to be impressed by the hosts recent form and something has clicked with them this last month. They have taken five points from their last three starts along with a trio of clean sheets , plus a 6-1 aggregate win over top Uruguyan side Penarol in the Copa Sudamericana sandwiched inbetween. They have had a free midweek to rest up, prepare and get ready to go again after a 0-0 draw at Ceara last weekend ahead of which I wrote .......
Atletico are winless on the road and have scored just twice in nine starts away from Curitiba, they have made the 2,700 km trip up to Fortaleza without suspended striker Pablo who is the only player with more than two goals to his name and face the same steamy conditions ( we discussed above , edit: Conditions up in Fortaleza are also very different to the Sao Paulo region and it will very hot and sticky tonight, about 8-10 degrees hotter than the relatively cool evenings they have left behind. ) upon arrival.
Ceara were in great form themselves and favoured by conditions ,so a very well earned point. Atletico have finished 3-8-10-6-11 in the last five seasons and concentrate fully on Brasileirão,
with little attention given to state league games and it is a surprise therefore to see them in their current position, but perhaps, not such a shock to see them improving now as they should have more left in the tank than some opponents who put full focus on the early year state contests. Anyway, all games from here on in are big for them, especially here in Curitiba at the Arena da Baixada where they play on an artificial surface.
Flamengo have not won in seven visits and played a very competitive Copa do Brasil quarter final second leg with Gremio in midweek, so their focus on today only really started on Thursday. Today they will be without suspended striker Henrique Dourado, he "only" has four goals this season , but do not underestimate his value to any team, he was joint top scorer in Serie A last year with 19 goals whilst with Fluminense and Fla are 2-3-3 this season when he plays 30 minutes or less, 9-1-0 when he is fully available ! That has to be seen as a big loss against a better rested opponent who have tightened up considerably defensively.
AP won that 3-0 and followed up by beating Gremio 2-1 here on Saturday and they are on fire !
Vasco da Gama got a much needed home win over Chapecoense on Sunday which followed on from a hard earned 0-0 midweek draw away to AMG, that is one of the few away trips outside of their own city which they would make by road ( 9 hour round trip) and AP did not have a midweek game and come into this with 24 hours longer recovery time and no travel, Vasco have additionally had to make the journey down to Curitiba. The visitors achieved their objectives for last week, for this I suspect main focus will be on their home game with Santos on Saturday (not Sunday as you might expect) and few favours from the scheduler for them and sometimes in Brazil, you have to pick your battles and that is the one most likely to produve three points ! AP have a 7-3-0 h2h home record v Vasco scoring 31 goals and winning six by 2+ goals, they have conceded just twice in seven starts now (winning five) and have to be the selection.
Atletico have three road games after this, the next two versus top 6 teams and, still just three points above the drop zone, it will surely be all about the win today.
1.75 units Atletico Paranaense -0.75 ball 2.18 asian line/Sportmarket.
We don't just sell football betting tips, as you can see there is an extensive analysis behind our asian handicap selections. Subscribing to our sports betting advice service need not break the bank. Learn more by visiting our subscriptions page.
Country:
Sport: