Brazil: Serie A betting tip: Atletico Mineiro- Internacional
Aug 06, 2018
Scream for goals !
Brazil: Serie A: Atletico Mineiro- Internacional
Hosts are sixth and could move up to 4th with a win. Inter are currently in that position, but would go third or better with a point. This is traditionally a high scoring fixture with 8 of the last 9 meetings here in Belo Horizonte producing three or more, five with at least four goals.
Atletico's last 10 starts have averaged 3.9 goals their most recent being a 2-2 draw at Bahia last Monday which is reproduced at the foot of this email. 1-0 at the half, that played out well with three very late goals. Atletico might consider themselves unlucky as they led for a combined 81 minutes, but they did allow their opponent 22 attempts on goal, 16 from inside the box and they continue to give up a lot of scoring opportunities and goals.
Inter's last five road games have produced 15 goals, with four having 3+ , most recent was another trip to BH when they played a struggling (at the time) America here 11 days ago and I wrote .............
Quick turnaround week for Internacional who played on Monday and are at home again in three days time, add in the 3,300 km round trip up to Belo Horizonte to play this evening and hard time they had getting past Ceara ,plus suspension to key midfielder Rodrigo Dourado (Inter lost 3/7 games that Dourado missed in the Inter Serie B promotion camapign, just 4/31 when he played). On Monday I wrote ..............
Nothing much to look at today, but I can say just a few words about the Serie A game between Internacional- Ceara. I have spoken often about Inter being a big club and an incredibly well supported one and it was shock when they were relegated in 2016, but their absence was a brief one and like many before them, they have probably bounced back stronger and in better shape as a club. They will expect to beat basement club Ceara and are short priced to do so, the three points would take the hosts up to 3rd and that is a good incentive, but this might not be as easy as it looks on paper.
Inter will be without suspended left winger Lucca and since he joined earlier in the year and started to play regularly they are unbeaten in nine (5-4-0) in those five victories he has scored and/or assisted in four, with three wins by a single goal. This is only Ceara's third season in the top flight in 25 years and bottom of the table, seven points from safety, it looks set to be a brief one. However, there have been signs of life and immediately before the WC break there was some encouragement from draws with Botafogo and Palmeiras and a narrow loss to AMG and last midweek they recorded their first win a 1-0 defeat of Sport Recife. No need for a parade or to get the bunting out just yet, but possibly something to build on. They have another win-able home game up next and normally I would say that would be their priority, but it is not until Saturday and with Inter playing on the road on Thursday, it is perhaps they who have to be more mindful of the upcoming fixture.
Having said all that, Inter have averaged 2.6 points and 2.4 goals in their five starts against bottom half of the table teams (1.25 points and 0.625 goals v top half opposition) so these are the games they do well in and perhaps target. So should win, but Ceara are not that easy to score against and have only lost 1 from 9 by more than a single goal, they also start solidly and have only conceded one of nine road goals allowed in the opening 30 minutes of games, this is mirrored by Inter, who have scored just one of their home goals through that same opening third. If you wanted to bet Inter I would definitely suggest waiting for better odds "in running" and until close to that half hour mark, but personally, I do feel there is a little value in Ceara +1 ball at good odds and they have won on their last three visits here, including last season in "B" so this is not the trip into the unknown that many of these top flight away games are for them.
Inter won 1-0, with a 77th minute goal and little chance to ease off or take things easy with today in mind.
America started this season well enough, but are now five without a win, however, three of those were on the road and 13/14 points they collected have been at home. Having fallen to 17th they should be fully focussed on stopping the rot ahead of a trip to strong home side Santos in a couple of days time. The two home games they have lost (Sao Paulo and the derby with Atletico) were the only two in which they have conceded early here, inside 12th minutes in both, not otherwise allowing a home goal inside 30 minutes. Inter are not the type to go too gung ho early and I expect a cautious start from them and this feels like a good match up and at the right time for America.
America won 2-1, led 2-0 early, then sat back with the consolation coming in the 90th minute, Inter have subsequently beaten Botafogo comfortably at home 3-0, but are a long way from Porto Alegre tonight and whilst both have had, in Brazilian terms, a longish break since their last game, there is an advantage of sorts for AMG who played last Monday and have been able to stay on that schedule for more than a week. At least one goal for both and it feels like the match has been priced almost solely on Inter's somewhat miserly reputation and not what we have seen from them on the road recently,or at all from AMG and historically, in this match up.
1.75 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.20 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
Brazil Serie A: Bahia- Atletico Mineiro (written July 30th)
I discussed Atletico's last road game a trip to highflying Palmeiras ..............
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We opposed AMG in midweek for their visit to Gremio .......
Lots of transfer dealings in recent days with the window reopening and it is difficult to keep on top of everything and there are some players set to move, not wanting to play or be risked. Gremio have lost Arthur to Barcelona, that has long been planned and he has not been a constant in the team this season. Atletico have sold top scorer Roger Guedes , who will join the ever increasing Brazilian community in China. He has 9 goals and 3 assists and will most definitely be missed ,given the open nature of most recent AMG games and their inability to keep a clean sheet. Ahead of a match at the end of May my notes included ......
Atletico Mineiro have had to make the 2,000 km trip up from Belo Horizonte on a quick turnaround, after playing league leaders Flamengo (0-1) last weekend and with another home game in three days time which they dare not lose. They have dodged a bit of a bullet today in that it is not as humid as usual in Recife today and their recent record is OK in a fixture which ALWAYS produces goals ( 33 in last 8 meetings here). Sport will be overjoyed with the surprise three points they picked up at Palmeiras last weekend, which was a massive bonus , especially as they trailed at the break. Palmeiras missed a late penalty (in the 98th minute) and both sides hit the woodwork in a very open encounter and I expect the same tonight given the history between these two, Sport's desire to make the most of home advantage and Atletico playing catch up after the weekend.
They lost that 3-2, drew 3-3 with Chapecoense, beat America 3-1 away, then went into the break with home wins over Fluminense (5-2) and Ceara (2-1). 10 points is decent and they were scoring freely, but 10 goals is a lot to concede, especially as most of that opposition are/were struggling and now, sans Guedes and with others seemingly on the move it will be tougher at the other end of the pitch.
They lost 2-0 and were fortunate to score nil ! Creating next to nothing, one attempt on goal from one inside the box ! They could easily have conceded a couple more and facing another strong team on the road so soon afterwards will be super tough and it is hard to see where their goals are coming from today. AMG do have a good record in this fixture, but that was then and this is now and really the only positive I can find.
Palmeiras are looking to push into the title race and could move into third and above Atletico with the win today, they drew 1-1 with Santos in midweek conceding a late equaliser in the derby game after leading for 70 minutes, they will be disappointed but motivated by that and despite losing Lucas Lima today to suspension will actually be much stronger and able to freshen things up, with four starters returning from bans after sitting out that game ( midfielders Dudu and Moises, centre back Luan and goalkeeper Jailson ). My numbers indicate Palmeiras are top 3 and a chance they will be there after today.
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They lost that 3-2, did bounce back with a 2-0 home win over struggling Parana, but the visitors who are 0-1-7 on the road, scoring just two goals , largely dominated, winning attempts 21-6, on target 8-4, inside the box 10-4, saves 2-8 with twice as many crosses into the penalty area and defensively AMG who have been leaky, dodged a lot of bullets.
Bahia are inside the relegation zone on goal difference, so a win today would be huge with a trip to Fluminense up next and having collected 15 of 16 points at home. They have and will continue to play a lot of football ( Sudamericana and Copa do Brasil too) and are in the middle of 12 games in 37 days ! They host Palmeiras in the Copa QF first leg on Thursday and might have one eye on that, although surely survival is their priority. They are also without suspended central defender Lucas Fonseca ( two wins in 13 starts he has missed since the start of last season , with just one clean sheet , conceding at the rate of 1.77 goals pg. Atletico do not play this midweek, so should not be looking to conserve energy.
This played out 2-2 last season, with three goals after the break and over 73% of strikes in AMG away games this season have come in the second half and Bahia have scored 9 of 14 home goals and conceded 4/8 in the final 30 minutes and I think that we can again expect late action.
1.5 units "over" goals at half time at first line quoted at odds of 2.20 + as long as we are still playing 11 v 11.
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