Brazil: Serie A betting preview : Goias- Chapecoense

Aug 12, 2015
football betting tips -

Brazil: Serie A:
 

At the weekend I wrote..........

As we have discussed many times this season, the home wins keep coming in Brazil and since the restart of domestic football after the break for last year's World Cup, which is just shy of 13 months, we have seen 55% of top flight matches end in victories for the hosting team, which is very high for what is a competitive league, although the gruelling schedule, distances travelled and need for smaller teams to "pick their battles" , which is another recurring theme of Brazilian football in clubgowi notes and featured in the Santos- Coritiba preview yesterday (reproduced below, 2-0 HT/ 3-0 FT), offer a "logical" explanation.

The point is that you have to have a very good solid reason to back a road team and even then, think twice !
 

The ten matches played on Saturday/Sunday, produced five home wins and five draws, there were no away wins, there have only been 35 of those ( 20.59%) all season, half the teams in the top flight, including one of the top 5 have failed to win more than once on the road.
 

Goias- Chapecoense

 

I previewed Goias at the weekend, when they entertained the league leaders ...........

I am not getting overly involved tonight, but the Goias- Atletico Mineiro game did make some appeal. I have been championing AMG for much of this season and they have served us well and sit top of the table with a two point advantage over Corinthians , posting a Serie A high four road wins and will be on many short lists for today's trip to Goias who sit inside the drop zone , four points from safety and without a win in four starts. However, three of those were on the road and this is a team who are normally fairly reliable on home soil with 10 + wins in each of their last four campaigns, they will have to be looking for at least four points from this and a visit from Chapecoense in midweek and whilst the win looks more likely on paper in the second, they would take the pressure of a little if they could do the harder work today and they might be facing the leaders at the ideal time. The visitors are without Argentine striker and top scorer Lucas Pratto, he has missed three starts this season in league and Copa ( 0-1-2, conceding twice in both road starts), the loss is compounded as fellow forwrads Luan and Carlos are still sidelined. Yesterday in final training coach Levir Culpi  went with Guilherme alongside Thiago Ribeiro in his preferred starting eleven, Guilherme has not scored in almost a year and seen only 138 minutes of league action this season. A further major concern was when captain Leonardo Silva left the same session early with a serious looking head wound and he is a doubt today. AMG have a 33% win rate in his absence ( 7 from 21) over the last three seasons.

A point will ensure that AMG stay top and I think they come with not losing as a priority and given the team news and with a home game in four days time, might well be happy with a draw

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That ended 0-0 and whilst no damage was done, the late shift in odds cost us a point profit and hopefully we can make up for that this evening. Goias are five points from safety and will have to gamble for all three tonight, with a terribly difficult looking trip to Sao Paulo (6-3-0 at home) this coming weekend. Chapecoense are poor travellers (1-1-6 on the road this year, 3-3-13 last) and have a degree of mid table safety courtesy of a strong home record and will have one eye on their own vist from AMG this weekend, they are also coming off a derby game with Figueirense on Sunday and if we take Sunday to Sunday, this match sandwiched in the middle is easily the least important of the three to them and given their road record, the one they were always less likely to win.
 
Hosts have spoken in build up about how important they know this game is and have pledged to do everything to win and asked the supporters to turn out in numbers to give their backing. They played some silky football in build up , especially in the second half against AMG and were denied by the woodwork and a couple of balls which just did fall for them in front of goal, on another day they would have scored twice at least and at least offensively, they are a level above the other teams in the drop zone. Home win.
 
1.5 units Goias -0.5 ball 1.93 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

Good Luck.

 

Brazil: Serie A: Santos- Coritiba (written August 8th)

Ahead of a recent home game versus Gremio I wrote the following about the hosts...........

Santos are coming from back to back road defeats and will be eager to get back on track today, they get central defender David Braz and defensive midfielder Lucas Otavio back  from suspension, the pair missed the midweek loss to Fluminense where Santos lost to a late goal (which the keeper should have saved) at a time when they were themselves pushing for a winner and there is quite a lot to like about this Santos team and I will be paying special attention to them in the coming weeks. Anyway, they have options to freshen up and improve the starting eleven today and I take them to win.

They did not win that day, but have since found a little form here on home soil and scored eight goals in winning three straight league and cup fixtures. They are still in a little trouble at the wrong end of the table , sitting just three points above the drop zone and they will be eyeing up a maximum return from both this and a midweek visit from another struggling team in Vasco da Gama. Both currently sit at the foot of the table and the points are there for the taking, football is never that easy, but if they win today it will take the pressure off for the next game and that will clearly be the target for this evening. Santos have scored an average of 2.4 goals per game in their last ten home starts against Coritiba, with at least two goals in nine of those and given that they have now found some form in front of goal, I would be surprised if that trend didn't continue.

Coritiba have yet to win on the road, already losing six times and a lack of goals ( 0.5 per game away from home) is costing them dear, they arrive without key central defender Luccas Claro who was expected to return today, he has been given a little longer to recuperate and will not be risked, with and I am reading between the lines here, the home game with Palmeiras in midweek being deemed more important/ win-able. Edit: I have only just seen their confirmed squad for today a short time before sending the newsletter, they do appear to be prioritising the midweek fixture, I can think of no other reason why they have left most of their starting defenders at home. Only one of the backline from the last league outing has travelled to Santos and four of the six defenders named have made just four appearnces this season between them. Sounds a little odd, anyway, home win and maybe a few goals.

1.75 units Santos -1 ball 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket.
 

Coritiba: Bruno , Wilson; Ivan, Juan, Juninho, Leandro Silva, Rafael Marques ,Walisson Maia; Alan Santos, Esquerdinha, Fabrício, João Paulo, Lúcio Flávio, Misael, Ruy , Thiago Galhardo; Evandro, Henrique Almeida, Negueba , Rafhael Lucas.

 

Santos are +6 (goal difference) before the break at home, -1 in the second half, Coritiba are -7 /-3 respectively, so the "wrong" way round and surely a good chance for Santos to take charge early. Santos/Santos HT/FT double result makes some appeal at circa 2.40-2.50 for example.

 

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Country: 
Brazil
Sport: 
Football

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