Argentina to make yet another fast start!
Oct 18, 2023
CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers: Peru-Argentina
The World champions hosted Paraguay on Thursday and I wrote .......
Argentina have lost one of their last 49 starts (35-13-1) which, incredibly, was that famous World Cup defeat to Saudi Arabia.
However, they led at the break in that game and it is Argentina's unbelievable record in the opening half that has featured heavily in my notes on them (sample preview from last year, they led 1-0 at HT in that, is reproduced at the foot of this email) in recent years. In their last 37 games they have conceded ONE first half goal (none in the last 21), those 37 half time scores were ........
0-0 x6
1-0 x19
2-0 x8
3-0/4-0/5-0/2-1 x1 each
Paraguay have not scored in their two qualifiers to date, despite playing two of the weaker teams in CONMEBOL and against ten men at home for 50+ minutes in the first and hard to see how they are going to trouble the world champions in Buenos Aires and the visitors probably already have one eye on what is a must win home game with Bolivia on Tuesday and attention will surely fully switch to that if things do not go their way early today and we know that Argentina will be looking to come out strong.
Argentina led very early (3 minutes) and that was how the score remained, it should probably have been 2-0 at half time and La Albiceleste also hit the woodwork in both halves and gave up just two attempts ITB in 90+ minutes. They now travel to Peru and it is difficult to see this playing out too differently, which just leaves us with 0-0 at the break or an Argentina lead. Peru have not scored in their three qualifiers to date, but did hold Brazil here in Lima, until very late actually, losing 1-0, but creating next to nothing. Peru were very poor in a 2-0 defeat in Chile last midweek, it was total one way traffic, some of their defending was shambolic and Chile, but for some poor finishing, might have been 2-3 up by half time. In the last WC qualifying h2h meetings Argentina led 2-0 at the break in this fixture and 1-0 at the half in BA. Lionel Messi featured only from the bench on Thursday, but is expected to start today and that just about swings it.
2 units Argentina -0.75 ball 2.38 First Half betting asian handicap.
Good luck!
World Cup Qualifiers : CONMEBOL:Argentina- Colombia (February 1st 2022)
Both teams made the notes on Thursday for the last round of games.............
Hard to know how Brazil and Argentina will approach these games, they are both missing their biggest stars, in Neymar and Messi and have no need to win, but are also unbeaten in qualifying and might not want to easily give up that record, also, competition for starting places is always fierce. Ecuador and Brazil played out two close games last year (each was all square entering the final 25 minutes and one stayed that way), Copa and WCQ, both in Brazil and Chile and Argentina also met twice within 10 days last June and both finished 1-1 and served us well, as I went with Chile +0.5 ball in each and there are notes on both below the "good luck" sign off. I spoke about the traditionally close nature of their h2h games and the last 10 have seen five draws and five single goal wins (90 mins) all for Argentina. Chile are motivated , but Argentina do not concede (none in last six starts and just 3 in 13 games) and are unbeaten in 26 starts and the most important thing for the hosts is to hang on in there, so a point might not be terrible. They are also with a key player of their own in Arturo Vidal and they are winless in six when he is absent, they have drawn 2 of the last 3 of those, including with Argentina and both fixtures look set to finish all square, or at least offer best value to do so.
Colombia are a big favourite at home to Peru and did win the reverse fixture 3-0, but they have not scored in five starts and did lose to Peru on neutral soil last year (Brazil) and it is a while since they lived up to what remains a lofty reputation, they have won just 3 of 18 WCQ's, turning into draw specialists ( 11 ending all square, which is 61.1 %) and key players Falcao (36 yo in two weeks time) and James (playing his football in Qatar) and Cuadrado ( 33yo) all have issues and/or are a bit long in the tooth. By the time this game kicks off, both teams might have avoiding defeat as a priority and even be happy with a point, at least to some degree.
Argentina lead 2-1 at the break,in a game which ended with the same scoreline, it perhaps should have been the draw we were looking for, as their second goal was scored as the home side were about to substitute their injured goalkeeper, who could not handle a shot, only parry it, from about 40m out. But it was another game where Argentina showed their best early and that was something which featured heavily in our notes on them last year and we really milked that, landing bets at some very juicy odds, typical of which was the Copa America final when I wrote ...........
Ahead of their semi final with Colombia I spoke about how strongly Argentina had been starting games ............
Argentina will be looking to set up that Copa final with their biggest rival and victory today will make the tournament a success, almost regardless of how that plays out. Ahead of their last group stage game against a poor Bolivian side I wrote ..........
Argentina should win with the minimum of fuss and it is a chance for them to throw the shackles off and I feel they should take it, as they too often seem content to do the absolute minimum to win games.
They won that 4-1 which was great for our purposes and followed up with a 3-0 QF demolition of Ecuador, seven goals was as many as they had managed in the previous six starts and I just wonder if they suddenly realise that you don't have to win every game by a single goal. They should certainly be aware that Columbia are dangerous to invite pressure from, having blown a very early 2-0 lead in a World Cup qualifier in Barranquilla last month in build up to this competition, conceding a 95th minute equaliser. La Albiceleste should have been out of sight by then and will have hopefully learned a lesson.
One thing that Argentina have been doing is starting games like their lives depended upon it and in their last eight starts they were .........
2-0 after 28 minutes
1-0 23 minutes
2-0 8 minutes (in Colombia)
1-0 33 minutes
1-0 13 minutes
1-0 10 minutes
3-0 42 minutes
1-0 40 minutes
Taking a first half lead in each and having very early multiple goal leads on three occasions and I think that is where the value lies this evening.
They led after 7 minutes and at the break, Colombia equalised in the second half , before La Albiceleste won on penalties. Argentina were 4-0 for BC's in that game so it was hard to argue against them being a worthy winner, but now the hard work begins !
Brazil are the best team in South America and are on home soil, but Argentina are the second best and sooner or later they are going to have to win another Copa or title of some sort, they must know they cannot fall behind and another fast start is on the cards and that is very much their modus operandi. The goals have dried up a little for the Samba Boys, the competition format is at least partly to blame and in their last four starts, they have not scored before the 35th minute (78-37-46-35) and twice their opener came after the break and I will again side with Argentina in first half betting............
They won that, beating Brazil 1-0 with a 22nd minute goal and within those notes you will see that they led at the break in two games v Colombia.
Argentina clearly have great team spirit and the fact that they have little to play for did not stop them last midweek and both goals were celebrated wildly and it is difficult to see that not being the case today given their long unbeaten record and the fact they are on home soil. It is now seven games since the visitors scored and whilst they need something from this, it might be after the break that they throw caution to the wind and they get back into things, as they did in the last two h2h meetings, if they do so at all. I might bet the "over" at half time as this has goal potential if Colombia are in that position, but once again, best pre match value is surely with ..................
1.75 units Argentina First Half betting -0.5 ball 2.77 asian line.
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