Russia came into this tournament with (very) limited expectations, but big wins over Egypt and Saudi Arabia got a nation excited, they came back down to earth with a bump in that final group game losing 3-0 to Uruguay. We know that the South Americans are good, but Russia had just two attempts inside the box and only one on target and scored their eight group game goals from an XG of just 3.06 from all three starts. The Saudis played very nervously and turned the ball over time and time again, against two better teams they had 7 shots from inside the penalty area in 180 minutes and the truth is they will attempt to play adventurously and openly, but they got lucky in terms of opponent and how the games played out and they are really not very good. My own opinion is that Spain need to improve to go deep, but they have looked their best in open games, which we will surely get today (I do not think Russia can play differently) and, if there are 5-6 world class players on show today, they are all on their side of the pitch. Russia are no Iran in terms of discipline and the wing backs especially do not like to be pressed and Spain should be able to get in behind the host nation. I just cannot see beyond a win for Spain.
Russia have kept only two clean sheets in their 12 games at the World Cup, one against a Saudi team who on the day looked perhaps the poorest we have seen in this tournament for many years.
I thought Spain were pretty poor compared to what we have seen from them for the last decade plus, but still should have won confortably and to progress today, Russia will have to perform similiar heroics, against what might well be even better opposition and probably again need some help to score. Croatia look decent, have conceded just once from open play at these championships and have the quality to make the most of the chances that will surely come their way against what is far and away the weakest side left in the competition. The Croatians have underperformed before at the knockout stage, but this feels like the tournament where all teams have addressed those issues (England/Bellgium) and they have taken confidence from knocking out Denmark on penalties after missing a spot kick in extra time. Russia have managed two attempts on target (one a penalty) in 180 minutes against the two good level teams they have faced and I cannot believe they will be as lucky a third time. Odds are good on the Croatian win and have to be taken, ahead of their last match I wrote .....
Croatia have looked good at these championships and won all three group games, ahead of the first,a 2-0 defeat of Nigeria I spoke about their qualities .......
I was very keen on Croatia at Euro 2016 and they looked fantastic for a while............
If Spain do again fall out of the blocks, there is a real opportunity for one of the other teams in Group D to benefit and go very deep in this tournament, group winner could face Iceland/Wales and then Switzerland/ Austria something like that for a last four spot and no one would be disappointed with that. I am rather keen on the chances of Croatia, they have lost only twice since the 2014 World Cup, keeping cleansheets in 67% of all starts,they are traditionally strong tournament starters and in four previous Euros, they are unbeaten in their two opening games in each, including ties with Italy, Germany and France. Having said that, they have had disappointing trips to the last two major tournaments, unluckily going out of Euro 2012 with four points, losing their final group game 1-0 to Spain to a late, late winner and being "robbed" by the host national Brazil at the World Cup, where there were some very questionable decisions from the match officials. Those experiences, and many of those players remain, will ensure that this is a squad determined to do well and learn from past mistakes, They have a solid backline and Mario Mandzukic and Nikola Kalinic give them a big goal scoring threat, but it is the silky smooth midfield of Ivan Perisic (Inter) , Ivan Rakitic (Barce) and Luka Modric and Mateo Kovacic ( both Real Madrid) that really make them purr! Few teams at these championships can match their level of quality in central midfield and as a group they look stronger than the team which left early, but impressed at times in the last two major football championships.
They beat Spain and Turkey in the group stage , how they drew with Czech Republic from 2-0 up, it should have (seriously) have been seven, will have to remain a mystery as it will never be solved and then lost in extra time to eventual champions Portugal. They have not exactly set the international scene alight subsequently, but all that talent remains, Perisic, Brozovic, Modric, Kovaci, Rakitic, Kalinic and Mandzukic ( who looks a far more complete player now)and if they click, no one is going to match their midfield skills. They are a nation and team who seem to like the role of unlucky loser and they are not alone in that, but they are also a potential dark horse again and are under limited pressure now and could go very well. They will want the three points before facing Argentina on Thursday.
They have a real touch of class and should beat a Danish team who have probably reached their objective and who are limited, but disciplined and well organised and hugely dependent on star player Christian Eriksen who is so good for them in transition, giving his team mates some much needed extra time on the ball. Their whole game is set up to exploit his footballing brain and ability. The teams they should be less successful against (forget the "agreed" draw with France) are those strongest in midfield and they have met very few of those (none in the last 12 months), step forward Croatia who are very fluid and can play a hard midfield press when they choose (Argentina) and have so much quality in the middle of the park. I want to bet them, but Denmark have conceded just once inside 39 minutes in 11 starts and Croatia have not scored inside 32 minutes in eight games and only once before the 54th. So, I am in no rush to take pre match odds given how Denmark are likely to set up and those stats.
Good Luck.
