J-League notes .........
Sep 10, 2016
12 match previews for subscribers today, we have started with the "morning" J-League fixtures, I do not wish to share any of those, but the basic notes surrounding these games regarding expected goals/home wins are certainly no less valuable and probably far more so.........
J-League :
After 15 rounds of Stage 1, I spoke about the shortage of home wins and goals in J-League ............
Where have all the home wins gone !
We are one match short of 15 rounds played in JL1 and home wins are running at 34.33% (away wins 39.55%) , this is an ongoing trend, 2013 saw 46.41% of games end in a home win. 40.85 % through 2014 and 38.56% last season. It has to stop somewhere and definitely feels way below where it should be currently and surely we will see an upturn in the coming months. Goals are correspondingly down too, which I suppose is to be expected, they have averaged 2.69 over the last three seasons and we are more than a quarter goal down on that at 2.42. We often look at these numbers and, big dips and increases usually even out, at least a little, over the full campaign and we should expect an increase in both.
Since writing that, across 109 games, home wins have run at 44.03% and goals at 2.72 ,this is why I regularly take a look at these kind of stats in our leagues, they can give us a very firm indication of where these numbers are likely to "go" in the short /medium term. J-League is still running at 38.68% homes and 2.555 goals overall, so there is no real reason to expect the increase to fall away over the final rounds, given that goals tend to increase at the end of most leagues and ,as more teams have less to play for, motivation for road games should decrease a little.
Seven rounds left to play and it is very much about motivation and priorities from here on in, Japanese players do not give in easily, but the game is played at high tempo and even a small dip in intensity, which usually tends to come in the second half of games, something we have discussed quite a bit in previous seasons and will do so again over the coming weeks, can make the difference. Team news has far less importance at this stage of the campaign.
Good Luck.
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