Champions League : Atletico Madrid- Bayern Munich
Ahead of Atletico's 2-0 quarter final win over Barcelona my preview read .................
I have spoken recently about Barcelona maybe looking a little tired/jaded and that has surely been backed up by the Catalan giants collecting just a single point from three La Liga starts, including losing to Real Sociedad last weekend. They did manage to win the home leg of this tie last Tuesday by a 2-1 scoreline, but Atletico controlled the first 30 minutes there and led courtesy of a Fernando Torres goal, before he turned from hero to villan by needlessly getting himself dismissed and that turned the game on it's head and playing with ten men for an hour against a team who move the ball as well and as quickly as Barce, was always likely to be a thankless task. My notes from that game, in which I spoke about how tough it was to defend the Champions League nowadays and highlighted why Barcelona could be running out of gas, the bad luck that Atleti had in recent h2h meetings and how tough the team from Madrid are to score against, are reproduced in full at the foot of this email and I would suggest that you start by re-reading those..
I suspect that Diego Simeone and his team will stick with their game plan, look to mainly defend and frustrate Barce and to try and win 1-0, the scoreline which would see them progress on the away goal rule. Barcelona do not need to win to progress and might be similarly happy to play out the opening period quietly and will be mindful that when they lost out to Atletico at this stage two years ago, it was a very similar scenario, 1-0 would see the hosts progress and they took a very early lead and then played like the away team, sat back and dared Barce to break them down. To be honest, the home side were much the better team for me in that game, despite having only 36% possession and flew out of the blocks, hitting the woodwork three times in the opening 19 minutes ! Maybe they will tear at the visitors again from the off, the home crowd will definitely be willing them to do so, but whether the goal comes early or late, I favour Atletico and feel that all the value remains with them and that odds of 2.30 + off level ball are wrong about two well matched teams and there are plenty of scorelines by which the hosts can win and Barce still be in the competition after 90 minutes, which I always feel is a bonus in these situations.
The morning after they had won I added ......
I do not think I have ever seen a team press like Atletico in the opening 45 minutes, they often had seven players in the Barcelona third when the Catalan side had gained possession and the best passing side of all time were anchored deep with nowhere to go. Once they took the lead Atletico dropped deeper and deeper, but I doubt they had too much choice over that, as despite their huge fitness levels and Simeone put them through hell in the off season to get as fit as they are, they were never going to be able to keep that up for 90 minutes +. That match made a mockery of possession stats, I do not know exactly how much of the ball Barcelona had in the opening 45 minutes, maybe 70% (?), but it was worthless possession and they were never going to hurt Atletico. The home side were by far the better team, Barce should have had a penalty late, which might have taken the game into extra time, but Iniesta played a big part in that move and should not have still been on the pitch after his handball for the penalty . Unbelievably good tactics from Simeone and his men, everyone says Barcelona were poor, they were nowhere near their best, but that would still have been good enough to beat most teams, but I think the real truth is that they are shattered and have run out of steam.
Now Atletico have to pitch themselves against another giant of European football in Bayern, but I see no reason to desert them. Bayern dominate the Bundesliga and that is half the problem, in that they are so rarely tested. At least in La Liga , the big three meet each other and the second best group, Athletic, Sevilla, Villarreal and Valencia are capable of pushing the best and have six european finals between them in the last dozen years (five wins) and might have another two finalists in the Europa League this season. Bayern's quality takes them through the early rounds, but I always feel they are at a disadvantage once we reach the business end due to lack of real and regular top quality opposition. I know they won the Champions League in 2013, but they were really an exceptional team that year and even a bit of a surprise package . Since the turn of the year they have played five top level games against three opponents, Juventus, Dortmund and Benfica and won just one (1-0) inside 90 minutes and are winless in their last seven away starts in the Champions League knockout stages .
Maybe they will go through over two legs, but I am not so sure and I just cannot agree with them being big favourites to win in Madrid, where Atletico rarely lose and under Diego Simeone they have only conceded in 4 of 16 CL home games, he his bound to have a surprise or two in store for Guardiola and co and I have to go with ...........
1.75 units Atletico Madrid level ball 2.29 asian line/Sportmarket.
Atletico have been drifting like a barge over the last 24 hours, some of you don't like that (to oppose the money), that is fine, but I like to stick to my guns (which has always worked out well long term) and the only change that I have had to make is increasing my stake a liitle, which as you know is odds related and (almost) outside of my control ! Late edit: odds dropped a little again just before sending down from 2.36.
Diego Godín is out for the home side, but we have know about that for some time and Atleti have won 5/6 in his absence this season.
Good Luck.
