clubgowi's midweek Brazilian Serie A betting previews ......
Nov 19, 2015
Four midweek previews from Brazil (two were played yesterday, two are scheduled for today) . plus a stats only look at a fifth game and you can read most of those notes below.
Brazil: Serie A
Avai-Joinville
An oft used clubgowi mantra is that two struggling teams meeting often means goals and that usually goes double at this time of year, well today we have four of them, so what does that mean ? Hopefully goals and plenty of them !
Avai come into this round of games, one point and one spot above the drop zone, also boasting the worst goal difference in Serie A, they are not going to feel much more secure than the other three, who are all in the relegation places and there will be a lot of nervous players, coaches and supporters at these games. Hosts home starts have averaged 2.82 goals which is almost half a goal above the top flight average in Brazil and they have the worst defensive home record in the division. Joinville have only scored six road goals, but they surely have to throw caution to the wind this evening and they have conceded at the rate of 1.53 per game, so probably know what they need to do to win this. This is the "easiest" opposition they face in their remaining four fixtures and the club they are looking to catch, so it should be three points or leave the pitch on their "shield" having given their all.
Avai sacked their coach last week and interim boss Raul Cabral has been given four games to save them from relegation, he has spoken about changing the "philosophy" at the club and the way they play the game, that is fine long term, but seems a bit ambitious with the time left and what they really need now is three points, regardless of how they come. Defensive midfielder Renan, centre back Jubal and club captain Marquinhos who oddly enough only seems to play in home games (!) are all missing today and the spine of the team is weaker and was not very strong to begin with. Cabral spoke yesterday about still not being sure about his line up offensively and I have my doubts about how this might play out for them, regardless of which, I expect both teams to score and the value for me on this game is ........
1.5 units "over" 2.25 goals 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket.
Avai: Diego , Vagner, Antonio Carlos, Emerson , Jéci, Eltinho, Nino Paraíba , Romário, Adriano, Claudinei, Eduardo Neto, Pablo, Rudnei , Tinga, Camacho, Everton Silva , Renan Oliveira ,Anderson Lopes, André Lima, Léo Gamalho, Roberto, Romulo , Tauã.
Goias- Coritiba
Goias are only ahead of Coritiba on goal difference and the truth is that it is going to be very tough for either team to survive without winning this game and especially Goias who have two really difficult looking road games up next, but neither seems capable of keeping a clean sheet and they will have to step up offensively to earn the three points. Both teams have seen 5 of their last six starts produce at least three goals and neither has a kept a clean sheet in seven, the reverse fixture ended 1-1 and both to score is the minimum I can see from this, but they each need more. I am not overly concerned with team news at this time of the season, but Coritiba have named quite an adventutous looking squad and the got a major boost with the news that top scorer Henrique Almeida is now available to play, four of his last six goals have come on the road and I slightly favour his team to edge this , let's say 1-2, but I feel there is better value with .............
1.5 units "over" 2.25 goals 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket.
Eight of the last nine h2h meetings here in Goiania have gone "over", the other ended 1-1 and Coritiba have scored in eight of those, twice in four. Goais have scored in in 10 of 11 h2h games home and away, notching two or more in seven.
Goias: Paulo Henrique , Renan, Everton, Gimenez , Rafael Forster,Alex Alves, Felipe Macedo , Fred, David, Juliano, Patrick , Ygor, Arthur, Felipe Menezes , William Kozlowski, Bruno Henrique, Carlos Eduardo, Erik, Ruan , Zé Love.
Coritiba: Vaná , Wilson,Carlinhos, Juan, Juninho, Leandro Silva, Luccas Claro, Rodrigo Ramos , Walisson Maia,Alan Santos, Cáceres, Esquerdinha, João Paulo, Lucio Flávio, Ruy, Thiago Galhardo , Thiago Lopes,Guilherme Parede, Henrique Almeida, Michel, Negueba , Rafhael Lucas.
Santos-Flamengo
Santos have been on course for 4th place and the final Copa Libertadores spot for many weeks now, in what has been a remarkable campaign for them, they started very poorly and looked set to struggle, before finding an incredible run of form especially here on home soil where they have won 16 straight games, scoring an amazing three or more in 12 of those, at an average of 2.875 per game !
They are also in the Copa do Brasil final where they will face wildly unpredictable Palmeiras over two legs, with the first of those next midweek. Santos would like to have 4th spot as a safeguard, although winning the cup carries with it a direct route into the second stage of the Copa Libertadores, instead of a first stage entry which goes along with 4th place in the league.I think they they will really go for the three points today and they hope that results elsewhere go their way and that they can ease off away to a buoyant Coritiba , who gave themselves a real chance of survival with that 3-1 win at Goias last night, when the two meet on Sunday.
I am incredibly proud of the fact that I was the first to pick up on the huge potential of this Santos group, that came way back in early July when I highlighted them as a team to watch, at the time they were 16th in the league, now they have won 16 home games in a row and are 180 minutes away from winning silverware !
Flamengo are safe from relegation and look booked for 10th-12th place, almost regardless of how they play from here on in, they have lost their last four on the road with a 10-1 goal difference and have failed to score in the last three of those, three of those defeats came against the top 3 and Santos can make it 4/4 losses to the top 4 today. There is a Copa Sudamericana place up for grabs (teams finishing between 6th-11th), if Flamengo want it (that is not certain), but they will remain in those places even if they lose tonight. any remaining energies they have and remeber the season is long and very gruelling in Brazil, will surely be saved for their two remaining home games, so the visit from Ponte Preta on Sunday will probably be considered more important and they do not "do" draws, just two in 34 league starts and if that trend is to continue, the winner is unlikely to be them ! Inventive Lucas Lima is missing for the hosts, but they are not a one , two or three man team and have beaten leaders Corinthians (1-0) and Sao Paulo (3-0) here in his absence and that is not enough (or even close) to stop the Santos juggernaut.
1.5 units Santos -1 ball 2.26-2.31 asian line/Sportmarket Pro.
Vasco da Gama- Corinthians
Corinthians are the best team in Brazil this season and by some way, although Santos and Cruzeiro probably both wish that the league had started 10-12 games later than it did, two months ago most people would have named Vasco da Gama as the worst team in Serie A and there might have been a mini stampede to back the visitors tonight giving up just a quarter ball. I still think those odds are...........
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Elsewhere, not much !
Chapecoense-Internacional ...........Hosts have conceded a very high 62.5% of home goals before the break, Inter have, incredibly, scored nine of ten road goals in the first half, with a second half away goal difference of 1-19 ! That is poor for anyone, let alone a top six team.
Those are all eyecatching stats and a few things make some appeal........
Internacional level ball 2.17 First Half betting.
"over" 0.75 or 1 goal First Half betting.
Chapecoense to "win" the second half, especially if they are trailing (first asian line quoted at odds of 2.0 +, as long as we are playing 11 v 11).
You can pay your money and take your choice, or not bet anything, which is ALWAYS an option.
There are a lot of tired teams around at present in Brazil and I am talking about mentally as well as physically, focus might not be what it should and that is backed up by last night's four matches seeing two goals in the opening 120 seconds or so and six in the last ten minutes, with two injury time red cards too. Of those three suggestions, I have marginal preference for the "over", which is quoted at circa and if you opt for that, I would suggest 1.25 units, personally, despite the two very early goals last night, I might hold off a short while and look to bet this in running.
Good Luck.
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