MK Dons- Doncaster Rovers
 

Ahead of their away trip to fellow promotion hopefuls Swindon Town earlier this month, I spoke about how MK Dons were "freerolling" for an automatic promotion spot and looking to put real pressure on Preston North End .....

These two are "guaranteed" at least a playoff spot , they sit 7 and 8 points respectively behind second placed Preston North End with again, respectively, two and one games in hand. Dons have the better schedule, Town and North End have to play each other and also leaders Bristol City and there is obviously a good chance for the winner today to put pressure on that automatic promotion place. They are "free wheeling" to do so, in that they have nothing to lose and I feel we are very likely to see goals this afternoon. I slightly favour the visitors, who are the better footballing team, they won the reverse fixture 2-1, have refound some form after their usual near end of season blip and scored seven goals in winning their last two and they have scored in 13 straight road games. They get Dele Alli back today (possibly from the bench), the 18 yo has been the worst kept secret in League 1 for several years, but his 14 goals in 36 games from midfield this season , forced Tottenham Hotspur into paying big money for the teenager, who was then loaned back to Dons, he has missed six weeks with injury. With Town likely to debut a defender who have not played in five months, this looks a decent opportunity for the visitors to get amongst the goals. I will suggest 1.5 units MK Dons to score over 1.5 goals 2.50-2.625 general quote, this match is being televised, so additionally, some companies will trade this market in running. Town have conceded two or more in 8 of their last 20 home starts (40%) and even that implies these odds are too big, given that Dons are better than almost all of those previous opponents, pose more offensive threat and that the draw is of very limited use to either team.
 

 

They won that 3-0 and have gone into overdrive over the last month, taking 19 points from a possible 21 and scoring a whopping 21 goals at an average of three per game, they come into this on the back of a 6-1 demolition of a Leyton Orient team battling for their lives, with all offensive players in stunning form. The aforementioned Alli, who has just been named Football League young player of the year, has a goal in each of his last two outings, top scorer Will Grigg, who is on loan from Brentford, has eight in his last six apperances and recent addition Robert Hall, who has recently signed from Bolton until the end of the season, notched a hat-trick at the weekend ! So many options and competition for places with that gap to Preston down to just a single point and North End face a very tricky trip to Notts County, who are two points from safety and probably need to win two of their remaining three games to survive.

Dons look well up to winning their last three, they go to Rochdale next and host already relegated Yeovil Town on the last day of the season and both they and County, can put huge pressure on PNE this evening. We have been here before with Preston ,who blew a big promotion chance last season with a poor run of form over the closing weeks which they took into the post season. I would not say they are playing badly, but three consecutive draws have left them vulnerable and there have been clear signs of nerves in each of those. They led in all three, allowing runaway leaders Bristol City to equalised in the first was "acceptable", but blowing a 2-0 lead at home against a team with nothing to play for and allowing a struggling Port Vale side already reduced to ten men (for 30+ minutes) to equalise late, after leading twice in the game, makes dismal reading for fans of Proud Preston and will have alarm bells ringing. They have dropped 13 points in the final 15 minutes of games and manager Simon Grayson tends to have a very negative approach late on, too often looking to hold on to what his team have got, when the two goal+ cushion doesn't come early, that puts pressure on everyone and has a groundhog day effect, with the same thing happening again and again with players almost "expecting" to concede. On the road, PNE have conceded 8 goals in those last 15 minutes, just 9 in the previous 75, County have conceded over 72% of home goals in the opening hour and if they can enter the final 20-25 minutes (60-65 minute mark) of this level, or just one goal down , I would suggest they can put huge pressure on the visitors through the closing quarter of the game, 1.25 units Notts County at the first asian line quote over 2.0 as long as we are playing 11 v 11.