UEFA Champions League betting preview .....

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UEFA Champions League:
 
Chelsea- Sporting Lisbon
 
Maribor- Schalke 04

 

Chelsea have already won Group G, Sporting will finish runner up with a point, or by Schalke failing to win, Maribor can take the Europa League spot with three points.
 
Obviously it is easy to see the match at Stamford Bridge having a major influence on the one in Slovenia.
 
Chelsea will rotate and Jose Mourinho has already said that he will rest John Terry, Eden Hazard and Willian and that 18-year-old midfielder Ruben Loftus-Cheek is likely to feature, but Cesc Fabregas and Nemanja Matic should play, the latter following a ban and the former, as he is suspended for the weekend league fixture and Diego Costa will also start in an attempt to re-find his goal touch.
 
The visitors have not won on the road in Europe for over three years , conceded four at Schalke , drew at Maribor and look set to be without one of their few experienced european campaigners in Nani and also suspended right back Cedric ( just one win in three league starts he has missed), who has played every minute of all five group games. Sporting had a torrid time on that flank anyway in the reverse fixture and Andre Schurrle a host of chances, the 1-0 scoreline did not reflect the Blues superiority and if a second had come, as it should have done, they would probably have scored four. Anyway, with those two missing, I see plenty of joy on both wings for the hosts.
 
Danger would be that they are not "bothered", but three things about that, firstly, the Blues are coming off a first defeat in 24 starts and will not want to go into the busy holiday period with another under their belts and suddenly in "crisis", secondly, at least the players might wish to do former boss Roberto Di Matteo, who was wldly popular with supporters and now in charge of Shalke, a favour, thirdly I do not feel there is any love left for Sporting in Jose's heart after he was harshly treated by them and we touched upon that ahead of the earlier meeting .............
Sporting have a long and proud european record, but have not played at the group stage for seven years and will be asked a very big question this evening. They have started their season poorly and blown leads with defensive errors in their opener with Maribor and at home to Porto on Friday. Their backline looks suspect and will be tested this evening, with Chelsea set to name their strongest possible line up and get back on track after drawing at home with Schalke on Matchday 1. Jose Mourinho will surely have his team up for this on return to his homeland and at the club where he started his coaching career , but where there is no love for him after he moved to and had such great success with Porto, he was not in charge at Sporting, but number two to Bobby Robson, the pair were sacked and we have seen before that Jose has a long memory for these type of things and three points will be worth just a little more this evening . The fact that he wants Diego Costa to play, instead of saving him for the Gunners on Sunday, tells us all we need to know and desite the two dropped points, the plan remains getting this group won asap, so that the Blues can concentrate on racking up the Premier League points, ahead of the knockout stages of this competition.
 
Therefore,I expect the Blues to do their best and it should be enough to beat Sporting who are clearly a long way behind Porto and Benfica this season.
 
Maribor have already drawn at home to Chelsea and Sporting and are not going to be easy to beat, but tonight, sooner or later, they are going to have to go all out for the win, with a point meaningless, that will give Schalke the space to exploit, but what the visitors really need is to hear that Chelsea are ahead early. There is plenty of "previous" for that, with the Blues scoring in the first half in their last ten home group games, inside 13 minutes in six of those and they are clearly going to get a lot of chances tonight reagrdless of whether they play at 80, 90 or 100% intensity against an un-Portugese like team defensively and one weakened on both flanks. 
 
That would surely give Schalke the motivation to go on and win this, either side of the thumping from Chelsea in their last group game, the German side scored 11 in three Bundesliga fixtures, including three in a strong win over second placed Wolfsburg and have the firepower to take this. The worry is of course that things backfire at the Bridge, Sporting lead late and then all the motivation is with Maribor.
 
 

Therefore, today, I prefer to play the Chelsea- Schalke double which is circa 2.92- 2.97 almost across the board and I will take that for the standard 1.5 units.

 

Chelsea have won seven straight games against Portugese sides, Sporting have conceded an average of two per game on the road in 12 starts against English clubs, without a single clean sheet. Maribor have dodged a lot of bullets and no team in the Champions League has given up more attempts on target (42), with Jasmin Handanovic having a stand out campaign in goal.
 
 
 
 
 

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