Notes taken from this morning's subscriber newsletter .........
Nov 12, 2014
There have been quite a lot of "other" winners at decent odds in the newsletter over the last week or two, Broncos to score over 38.5 points @ circa 4.33, Andre Gray to score @ 3.50 and again days later@ 3.40 and Sounders/Galaxay in the MLS Cup at a combined 2.85 which is now trading at sub 1.70. Yesterday, the notes on the Conference game included .....Dover have won six home games in all competitions this season , they have scored their opening goal in five of those between the 38th and 47th minute and the last five wins have come along with a clean sheet. Stats which look promising for "in play" betting. Dover won 1-0 with a goal in the 45th minute and traded big in running and absolutely HUGE in the half time market late in the first half.
I guess my only point is the usual one, that there is a whole lot of value in the content beyond the red type selections and which is never reflected in results, which are nonetheless incredibly good.
Copa do Brasil: Atletico Mineiro -Cruzeiro
Two legged final with the return leg in Belo Horizonte in two weeks time, by which time Cruzeiro will hope to have secured a second straight league title and maybe that scenario will see them then relax and really go for the domestic double. For now, I suspect that their priority will be that title defence and for them to play tonight with trips to Santos and Gremio in the next seven days firmly in mind and the knowledge that whatever happens this evening, they have the opportunity to turn things around in the return leg. They are three incredibly tough road games to play in a row , Cruzeiro are short of their best form and you can make a case for this being the least important of the three. Cruz have named a strong squad, but with 21 players in the group that leaves plenty of room to manoeuvre and central defender Dedé is injured and Marquinhos and Breno Lopes cup tied, which weakens them a little and they have conceded seven goals in their three away starts in the competition and if they score tonight and concede two, maybe even three, I do not feel they will be overly worried. Atletico have (incredibly) done the double over Cruzeiro this season, with both games going "over" and odds for a repeat look generous.
Hosts have won their last two starts scoring six goals and whilst they would like to hold on to their current third place, I do not feel they will lose too much sleep over a visit from Figueirense at the weekend and for me, this week will be all about tonight's game.Atletico seem really pumped for this and you can feel the excitement and anticipation leaping off the page in interview with the players in build up. We last discussed them in any detail ahead of a home win over Chapecoense three weeks ago .......
Atletico did us a favour last Sunday easing past Sao Paulo by the minimum margin....
We have not discussed Sao Paulo a lot this season, but ahead of their trip to Coritiba last month I wrote ....The visitors have a very talented squad and will be buoyed by closing the gap on the leaders, but travel without Kaka (8-1-1 when he plays) and versatile defender Paulo Miranda ( conceded two goals + in three of the last four away starts he has missed) and although striker Luis Fabiano returns , he has been out since late May and will probably only be up to a cameo role. They will be motivated to keep the pressure on Cruzeiro, but this looks a difficult task now that the hosts are close to full strength and fighting for suvival. The visitors road games have averaged a league high 3.2 goals per game and it is hard to see them winnning this without needing to score at least twice. I am torn between the hosts and goals, but in terms of odds offered, much prefer the latter. They lost that 3-1 and actually collected just a single point, conceding 11 goals from four starts, before stopping the rot with consecutive 1-0 wins in their last two outings. They are without Kaka again today, he, along with Souza, Ademilson and Alvaro pereira are on international duty, Toloi and Rodrigo Caio are injured,Paulo Miranda and Paulo Henrique Ganso suspended. That means they are without 4-5 starters, including three midfielders and a left back and three players who played largely on that flank in their last really impressive performance, a 2-0 home defeat of champions Cruzeiro. PHG is hugely influential and they are without a win in 9 when he plays 30 minutes or less.
Atletico can move back into a Copa Libertadores place with a win and within two points of SP who are currently in second spot. They are without strikers Diego Tardelli and Guilherme today , but have options upfront and it is midfield when they should win this game and boss the injury hit visitors.
They followed that up with a 4-1 Copa do Brasil thumping of Corinthians, they went with eight of the 11 starters from the SP game, plus Douglas Santos, Diego Tardelli and Guilherme who all returned to action and it was a comprehensive victory, effectively over after 75 minutes at which time, top scorer Tardelli was wrapped up in cotton wool and saved for today. It is hard to reason why ANG do not score more goals, they have an abundance of attacking options and they have brought them out in force today, naming seven strikers in the 22 man squad.
They are missing Guilherme ( see above) tonight, but we have spoken about their attacking options and threat and the goals have started to flow now and whilst I almost never oppose Cruzeiro, I see value in Atletico and also the "over" and am going to suggest a rare double bet.
1 unit Atletico Mineiro -0.25 ball 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket.
1 unit "over" 2.5 goals 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket.
Atletico: Victor, Giovanni, Uilson, Marcos Rocha, Douglas Santos, Pedro Botelho, Leonardo Silva, Jemerson, Tiago, Edcarlos, Josué, Rafael Carioca, Pierre, Eduardo, Leandro Donizete, Paulinho, Dátolo, Maicosuel, Dodô, Luan, Carlos, Marion, Diego Tardelli.
Cruzeiro: Fábio , Elisson, Ceará , Mayke, Egídio , Samudio, Alex, Bruno Rodrigo, Léo , Manoel, Henrique, Lucas Silva, Willian Farias , Nilton, Everton Ribeiro, Júlio Baptista, Marlone , Ricardo Goulart, Dagoberto, Marcelo Moreno , Willian.
Good Luck.
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