I previewed one Champions League and two Championship matches today, one of which you can read below, along with some thoughts about Derby County who went into last weekend top of the table......
Championship: Millwall-Blackburn Rovers
These two met at the end of last season, at the time Millwall were at the foot of the table with games fast running out and Rovers just running into form and with an outside chance of making the playoffs .....
The two previews today are centred around the bottom three, they all look in big trouble, they might only be three points behind Charlton, but Athletic have 2-3 games in hand and taking goal difference into account, the trio probably need to pick up seven + points with time fast running out.
Millwall are coming off a costly 3-2 home defeat to Birmingham City in midweek, a win there would have dragged the Blues right into the heart of the equation, now they have a buffer over the drop zone and the Lions case is clear and they have to be all guns blazing for the three points today. Rovers were also involved in a high scoring match in midweek, sharing six goals with Watford at Vicarage Road, that is their second straight high scoring away game, after winning 4-2 at Huddersfield.
There is no point in thir holding back here either, they are safe in midtable, but "only" eight points behind Reading who hold the final playoff spot, with a game in hand. They have home games up next against teams in 8th and 9th, so a mathematical chance still, but one which will effectively evaporate if they do not win this afternoon.
Lions boss Ian Holloway said after the midweek loss:"We've got eight games left and we've probably got to win five of them, then we might stay up."You probably think I'm crazy, but I don't. I think we can do it with the chances we are creating. "I'm devastated, I have to say that. It was a must-not-lose game and we've lost it. We've got to keep fighting."
Rovers are still talking about the post season and feel they have build up a lot of momentum over the last three games. A draw will not help either team overly much, both are happier on the front foot and their need will drive them forward.
The Lions led twice, but Rovers were the better team for my money and came away with a 2-2 draw, that helped us as we took the "over", but was a blow to their respective ambitions. However, Millwall did survive and Rovers came up just two points short of a post season spot, after collecting 39 points through the second half of the season which was 5th best in the division and would have been enough for exactly that, a 5th placed finish over a full campaign.They have started along similar lines this season and are just a point off 5th spot and they have clearly been playing at exactly this level since Christmas.
They showed great ambition by extending the contract of star striker Jordan Rhodes in the summer and elsewhere made shoring up a backline which was too porous at times, a priority and whilst they have conceded the most goals of any team in the top half of the Championship, those numbers are improving now that new players are bedding in and changes taking effect and in terms of productivity at the other end of the pitch, they have created the second most attempts on goal and also on target. Worrying for the rest of the division is that Rhodes has not fully hit his stride yet and "only" has five goals, Rudy Gestede has eight and Ben Marshall six. Reports on Marshall have been amazing, rave reviews and my friend who is a Reading supporter said that he could have beaten the Royals on his own at the weekend, as it was, Rovers won 3-1 and Rhodes wasted three golden opportunities and if this team can find some real consistency and Rhodes his touch and that will definitely come, as he is far too good a striker at this level for it not to, there is no telling how far they could go .
Hosts have "forgotten" how to win and have tasted victory just once in ten starts, which came here at the New Den against a poor travelling Cardiff team who missed two one on one's before Millwall scored the only goal of the game. This is a game the visitors should be looking to win if they hold genuine top 6 ambitions.
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I find the other Championship and CL games tough to call, or priced correctly. I saw Derby County on Saturday and for 35 minutes they were far and away the best team who have played at Griffim Park this season. They were 1-0 up at the time and it could have been more, perhaps should have been and 0-3 at the time would not have been totally unjust. However, Brentford ended the first half on the front foot, scored early in the second and were the only team who looked like winning from that point on.
County made a couple of odd decisions in terms of their line up, which looked like working out early on, with Will Hughes ( in favour of an inferior player) and Jordon Ibe both left on the bench for an hour. Ibe is unbelievably quick, the Bees have a player on the right, Moses Odubajo, who is very pacy and he looked totally stunned when Ibe gave him a start and a beating, as I doubt it has happened before. They had also done a lot of homework on Brentford in terms of tactics and how the Bees play, which was spot on and caused all the early problems. What I am trying to say is that I do not feel there is too much wrong with Derby, if there are two better teams in the Championship, I would be as stunned as MoJo and whilst they have blown leads in losing their last two, I am sure they will be back on track soon and if odds had been a little better, I would probably have backed them this evening.
Good Luck.
