Brazil Serie A: Botafogo-Palmeiras
This falls into the two struggling teams camp. We looked at Palmeiras last midweek, when they hosted Chapecoense....
Our last preview of a Chapecoense match is reproduced at the foot of the email (see last Thursday's newsletter), they won that 3-0 and subsequently took a point against Criciuma, thereby collecting the four we spoke of. They led at the break in the latter and looked on course for all three points, but defensive midfielder Bruno Silva was dismissed just before half time and the visitors found a way back. He is suspended tonight and is a loss, when he plays Chap average 1.67 points per game, 0.81 without him and also concede almost half a goal more per start and he has become increasingly influential. The visitors are talking up a good game, claiming to be coming for all three points and have spoken about their solid recod in recent starts in SP, having taken four points from games against Corinthians and Sao Paulo and have prepared for this in identical fashion. However, they are 0-1-6 on the road without Silva and Palmeiras have scored in 9 of their last 11 at home and their last five starts have averaged 3.8 goals, two struggling teams and these two are well and truly in the relegation scrap, usually means goals and it is hard to see how the visitors can get anything from this without scoring at least once.
Hosts are in better shape than for some time, with the return of Lucius, Juninho, Tobio, Wesley and Leandro and possibly Valdivia (awaiting decision from the disiplinary committee) and will be up for this, which on paper is their easiest match for the forseeable future (they play four of the top 8 this month) and one where three points could take them out of the drop zone. I am torn between the home win and "over" option, but priced this as circa 1.95 Palmeiras (they are 2.0) and a full quarter goal more in terms of the goal line, so the decision is made for me.
That ended 4-2 and it is very difficult to see Palmeiras keep a clean sheet against anyone right now, but they have started scoring again. The same is true of the hosts and these two have conceded 2+ goals each on average over their last 10 starts in all comps.
Botafogo are in turmoil on and off the pitch and look in trouble and will do well to avoid relegation, the next three games, all of which are at home are likely to decide their fate, on paper, this is the easiest ( Corinthians and Recife up next), but is against a better rested opponent ( two extra days recovery time) who are also battling for survival. hosts are without starting keeper Jefferson and back up Andrey, that will mean a start for Helton Leite , who has not made a first team start in 13 months, or even played a B team game in over six and has very limited experience. Last three h2h meetings here have gone over and both have scored in 8 from 10 and I expect more of the same this evening.
1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.20 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good luck.
