Cruzeiro- Gremio
Cruzeiro won two home games by wide margins for us last month ....
Cruzeiro rarely let us down and are the best team in Brazil by some way, once they again open a big lead at the top of the table and it is already up to five points, motivation for Cruz to extend themselves in the non key games will evaporate, so we should bet them whilst we can, especially against a team as poor as Figueirense.
We discussed the hosts last week ahead of their comfortable win over Vitoria ....
We were behind champions Cruzeiro pretty much from the get go last season, landed some nice bets and were fulsome in our praise for a team with an abundance of attacking options who had the title basically won with a dozen matches to play and from that stage onwards, largely picked the games in which they were going to display their talents. If they had gone flat out for 38 rounds, I am convinced they would have won the championship by at least 20 points.
That is a lot of ground for the "pack" to make up and I feel that is very unlikely to happen, they entered the break for the World Cup with a three point lead, although Sao Paulo closed that up with a road win last night and already look back on track for a convincing title defence. On a going day, they are head and shoulders above even the better Brazilian teams and have goals in them from all over the pitch, highlighted by the fact they scored 77 goals last season, with no one player contributing more than ten. Their Copa Libertadores campaign is now over and they can fully concentrate on building up a lead in Serie A and with SP closing that gap and three of their next four starts on the road, I suspect they will be focused on a win tonight and if things click, it will be an emphatic one.
Vitoria had an amazing and very unexpected first season back in the top flight last year following promotion in 2012, they finished a dizzy 5th and were always going to struggle to emulate that this season and are currently lodged in the bottom four. Their problem today is that they struggled big time in both meetings with Cruzeiro last year, losing by a combined 8-2 and in truth, and with little exaggeration, Cruz could have scored 15 across the two matches. I remember watching the home game ( 5-1) and that could/should have been 10-1, they had huge joy down both flanks, won everything aerially in the box and missed more and easier chances than they scored. These highlights (Preview) (Preview) (Preview) (Preview) do not really reflect Cruzeiro's superiority that night, but will give you some idea. It is a fair assumption that the hosts are at a similar level this time round and that the visitors are quite a bit weaker and I cannot see beyond another convincing home win.
Hosts are without striker Borges, but they have so many offensive options, it hardly mattters, it is Ricardo Goulart and Marcelo Moreno, who have been leading the way this season in any case, with ten goals between them. Very attacking line up expected and the coach has made it clear it is all about the three points, once they take the lead, Vitoria again seem sure to leave those big gaps out wide for the home side to exploit.
They have since won 2-1 at Palmeiras , going two up early and then taking their foot off the gas. Home coach Marcelo Oliveira is clearly not worried about giving anything away and named his starting eleven as soon as Friday training was completed ........Cruzeiro: Fábio; Ceará, Léo, Dedé , Egídio; Henrique, Lucas Silva, Everton Ribeiro , Ricardo Goulart; Marquinhos and Marcelo Moreno, which I always feel sends out a firm statement of intent...."let them worry about us", but it easier when you have the best squad in the country.
Even so, they have two road games up next and will surely want maximum points this evening.
They won that, the second of the two , 5-0 and then drew both of those away starts, despite dominating each, they then defeated Santos 3-0 here at the weekend. Motivation is an issue, they can beat almost any other team playing at 90% intensity, maybe less, but they have been fairly relentless at home and will, I am sure, want to re-establish their five point lead at the top of the table ahead of a never easy trip to Goias (see above) on Sunday.
Gremio won their first match under new coach Phil Scolari (goodness, that guy is never out of work very long !) at the weekend and his involvement will increase interest in this game and hopefully encourage Cruz to turn it on. The visitors have a home match with Corinthians up next and again, I would argue that for them, that game, in front of their own supporters is more important and certainly the easier of the two fixtures. The visitors left four regulars at home, including Barcos and Rodriguinho who have scored seven of just 13 Gremio goals this season and Big Phil also said that two players coming back from lengthy injuries will get game time from the bench tonight and it looks like the weekend game is , indeed , being given clear priority. Cruz could win this comfortably on a going day reagrdless of that, but it is a nice extra bonus.
Cruzeiro : Fábio ,Rafael, Ceará
, Mayke, Egídio , Samudio, Dedé, Léo , Manoel, Henrique
, Lucas Silva, Nilton, Tinga , Willian Farias, Alisson, Everton Ribeiro, Júlio Baptista, Marlone , Ricardo Goulart, Dagoberto, Marquinhos , Willian.
Good Luck.
