Tokushima Vortis- FC Tokyo
Hosts are below top flight level and their stay in J-L1 will be short and not very sweet.
We previewed their midweek trip to Osaka and those notes are reproduced at the foot of the page. Gamba won 3-0 and it was a very comfortable victory, but it took a while for Vortis to be worn down and they appear to be entering almost every game, with damage limitation as a priority and anyone not beating them will definitely view that as 2-3 points dropped,
Having said that, FC Tokyo are not to be easily trusted at present and they have not scored in seven halves of football, not since they won for us in Yokohama two weeks ago (preview at the foot of the email), if they play to their potential, they could run away with this, but it is hard to see too much value being asked to give up 1.25 + goals pre match, about a team who are not scoring and who have drawn 5 of 6 first halves on the road and 9 of 12 overall.
FCT have ability, but just cannot built any momentum. However, they will surely find a way to edge this at the very least. We can hold out and hope the line hits- 0.75 ball 2.0 + in running, but I doubt many of my European readers will be up at 06.00 on Saturday morning, but that is definitely an option for the rest of you (and me !) . "Officially", I will put a very small bet on Vortis to hold out for 45 minutes, taking the Draw-FC Tokyo double result ( HT-FT) for 0.5 units at circa 3.80-4.20.
Yokohama F. Marinos- Sagan Tosu
By contrast, I am perfectly happy with the pre match quotes for.................our two main previews for the Saturday games are only available to clubgowi subscribers.
Good Luck.
Gamba Osaka - Tokushima Vortis (written May 5th)
I was pretty pleased with my early season assessment of Vortis ....
I usually ignore newly promoted J-League teams for a month or so, but I am happy to oppose newcomers Tokushima today, they made it into the top flight after finishing 4th in J-L2 and were 20 points behind leaders Gamba Osaka and five teams ( down to 9th) finished within a win ( 3 points) of Vortis. They also lost eight times at home last season and the only team to be promoted with a similar record in recent seasons was Oita Trinita in 2012 and their top flight campaign ended in tears ( 2-8-24), with relegation almost assured with three months left to play and to be honest, I fear similarly for Vortis.
There is/was always the chance that they would hit the ground running, but they opened up with a trip to Sagan Tosu last week, who had struggled badly themselves last year (14th) and had only earned promotion in 2011 and who had not really strengthened in the off season and lost 5-0. I could go for one of my favourite lines and say they were lucky to score nil, but they did hold out for 36 minutes, unfortunately, four came inside 14 minutes and I suspect we will see plenty of that from them, first goal and then the floodgates will open, in what is their first ever season in J-L1.
Of course they will be "up" for this today on their home debut, but Cerezo are a game further ahead in terms of preparation and after losing at home to Hiroshima last week (brief notes reproduced below) they will be desperate to post a win ahead of their midweek AFC Champions League fixture. They got 81 minutes out of Diego Forlan last week and he fired five attempts on goal and should relish the far weaker opponent today. Rising star and Japanese international midfielder Yoichiro Kakitani (34-21-4 last season), spent three years at Tokushima as a teenager and so will feel very comfortable in the surroundings and will want to show that Forlan is not the only show in town this weekend.
They lost that 2-0 and are now 1-0-10 with a 3-29 goal difference and already six points adrift of both safety and today's opponent. Gamba are a big club in Japan and have finished top 3 in seven of the last ten seasons, they suffered a humiliating relegation in 2012, but came staright back up as champions and do not expect to be battling relegation this time round. They have two tough looking road games up next and will be very focused on collecting maximum points today, they should do so and the only debate is whether it will be by a single goal or two or more. Gamba did the double over Tokushima last season with a 7-1 goal difference and are stronger this time round. The visitors ten defeats have come by an average of 2.7 goals and I have to side with the bigger margin of victory, the goals have not flowed for Gamba yet, but they have been creating chances and young striker Takashi Usami ( 19 goals in 18 appearances last season) should finally be ready to play more of a role after two appearances off the bench following injury. They also have a recognised right back in the team now, with the return of Jae-Suk Oh . Usami scored four on the road to Vortis last season and will be busting a gut to start.
1.5 units Gamba Osaka -1.5 ball 2.16 asian line/Ibramarket.
Yokohama F. Marinos- FC Tokyo (written April 25th)
Apart from "fatigue", what also shone through from those post match notes ( see above) was the huge respect the Cerezo players gave to FC Tokyo and two players said they were as "good as a national team" and on "a level with the best in J-League".
This makes me both happy and angry, pleased because I have probably been on the right track with FCT this season, "mad" because they have been very frustrating.
We previewed their recent visit to Kobe ......
New FCT coach Massimo Ficcadenti, whom some of you might remember from Cagliari, has promised "a commitment to beautiful attacking football". They opened with a 1-1 draw away to Reysol and played really well, created a lot of chances and played aggressively and tactically aware, with Ficcadenti making some clever adjustments at the break, which resulted in a string of chances early in the second half. Home coach and players were very complimentary about Tokyo.
They took the lead early against Kofu last week and held it for 67 minutes, they looked in little trouble and should have scored a second or third, before conceding late, following a long throw, which they failed to clear. The coach said "We achieved what we wanted in the first half and did even more in the second. After we conceded the goal we pushed forward strongly to try and find the winner. In that position I felt we needed to be calm and to maintain the team balance. We wanted to win today for all the fans and supporters and everyone at the club who created such a wonderful atmosphere for the game so the result is disappointing. We've only just started though and I firmly believe that when our ideas are implanted into the team we will give everyone plenty to cheer about".
His training had been hampered by international calls on players in the build up and they should all be much more focused and in sync today. FCT were 8th last year, up two places on 2012 , following promotion in 2011 and I see them as potential further improvers this season, but they need to register a first win quickly, before it becomes an issue....today !!!
They lost 2-1, again creating plenty of chances, which they failed to make the most of. Ficcadenti , who obviously sees his team through rose coloured spectacles said :"In the first half the players did exactly as asked and created a host of chances. They also did well in restricting the number of chances the opposition had. As for the second half, I had them focus on pressing further up the pitch than in the first half; then, after we gifted the opposition a goal it was difficult for us to play the way we had intended. The players didn't give up after we went 2-0 down and after we pulled a goal back we created several chances to have tied the game. The Kobe keeper had a good game but it was we who created the greater number of chances, I think".
To be fair to Ficcadenti, Vissel Kobe manager Adachi admitted that they had trouble with the pressing game of Tokyo and that his team couldn't get any fluidity until the first goal. Tokyo have not had much luck in the league and have played better than results suggest, they forced Vissel into errors in the first half and stole possession any number of times. They broke their duck the following midweek in the cup with a 3-1 defeat of Kashima Antlers. forget the merits or otherwise of that, the win will did them good.
They avenged that lost to Visel with a 3-0 cup win in Kobe last midweek and followed up against Cerezo, with another cleansheet. This must surely be a good time to play Marinos, who have scored just once in five starts in the league and lost out on the group stages of the Champions League and have just come back from a lengthy trip to Guangzhou and back in midweek, where they lost 2-1 against Evergrande, the Asian champions. The Japanese side enjoyed quite a bit of possession, but admitted they had to expend huge energy reserves just to try and hang on to the coattails of the home side. The better rested visitors with the draw no bet option for me. 1.25 units FC Tokyo level ball 2.13 asian line/ibramarket.
