Championship betting preview: Bolton Wanderers- Leicester City
Apr 22, 2014
I am happy with Wanderers and the handicap start here against the champions elect, who do need a point to seal the title, but still have two games after today to clinch it and both look far easier than this. We opposed City immediately after they clinched promotion, at home to Brighton earlier this month , they lost that 4-1 and those notes are reproduced in full below the "good luck" sign off. They have taken four points from a trip to Reading and visit from QPR since, but they were a bit "laboured" in those outings, at least compared to what they have shown us this season and I suspect now they would just like to go and sit on a beach somewhere, reflect on what they have achieved and look forward to next season.
There are a lot of players out of contract at the club in the summer (nine I believe) and whilst you might feel that will make them up their game, I suspect the opposite is true. Whilst negotiations are going on, with City, or other clubs, no one wants to put a big contract in jeopardy by picking up a needless injury.
Bolton were our pre-season selection and it was lost almost before the season started with a dire start from them, through which they just could not win a game. I am pleased they stuck with boss Dougie Freedman, whom I am very keen on and whether that was through good choice , or for financial reasons, it was correct and the Trotters have ended the campaign in good fashion, with 25 points and just a single defeat from their last 12 starts, which is identical to City's record of (7-4-1) over the same sequence.
I suspect that Freedman will want to keep the momentum up and also welcome this opportunity to judge exactly how far his team have come and a good performance today, will also help his own negotiations over what funds the cash strapped club can give him to upgrade over the summer. No Jamie Vardy (37-16-10) for City , but this is not a club short of striking options.
1.5 units Bolton Wanderers +0.25 ball 2.09 asian line/Ibramarket.
Good Luck.
Championship: Leicester City - Brighton (written April 8th)
City played on Friday, which would normally give them an edge coming into a Tuesday fixture, they have longer recovery time (obviously) and can also fit an extra day's training in, if required.
However, they officially gained promotion on Saturday after QPR lost at Bournemouth and with the players all on a day off and many watching results together, the celebrations started early and I suspect it will be hard for them to be at their best tonight. Of course, boss Nigel Pearson has made all the usual comments about looking for 100 points and wanting to win the title, but the latter is likely to come soon enough anyway and tonight, after a decade out of the top flight, it will be party time central at the King Power Stadium and maybe hard for the home players to concentrate fully on the game.
Brighton can use the celebrations to feed off, knowing that they still have a chance to break into the top six and the playoffs, they are in eighth, five points behind Reading and have a decent schedule remaining, with three home starts against teams all in the bottom five. Those clubs will be fighting for survival of course, but on paper, are games the Seagulls must feel they can win and let's be honest, if you had to pick a a time to travel to play the runaway league leaders, this would be it.
We have some (not entirely flattering) recent notes on the visitors from last midweek:
Brighton are not a favourite of mine, they simply do not score enough and actually come here without a goal in almost 300 minutes. However, they are now four points off the playoff pace and need to start gambling a little more. They have been creating chances and have actually been denied by the woodwork a Championship high 14 times, they brought in young striker Jesse Lingard on loan from Manchester United to try and adress these offensive woes, but he has yet to score in seven starts. He had six goals and three assists with Birmingham City on a previous loan deal earlier this season and the run must be proving very frustrating for both club and player. They will get few better opportunities to break that duck than tonight, with Rovers having conceded in their last 7 starts, at an average of 2.14 goals per game. Both have to look for the win and I feel this will buck the recent Brighton trend and go "over" with both scoring in the process.
They drew that 3-3 and showed plenty of spirit to come from behind twice, but were back to their old ways on Saturday in a 0-0 draw at Barnsley, enjoying plenty of possession and chances,but failing to take advantage. However, the result did bring a little promise, with 15 minutes off the bench from striker Craig Mackail-Smith after missing 13 months out through injury. That gives them more options offensively and they will arrive buoyed by winning the reverse fixture 3-1, which was the last time City tasted defeat. Hosts have denied they will make too many changes tonight, but the temptation to use a few players who have missed out recently will be great (especially as many senior players are currently negotiating new contracts) and we will surely see some rotation, Jamie Vardy (36-16-10) is carrying a knock and seems unlikely to be risked, he has scored or assisted in 17 of City's 27 wins this season. Vistors plus the draw for me.
1.25 units Brighton +0.5 ball 2.17 asian line/Ibramarket.
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