We are on Benfica outright (see foot of email) and with a 1-0 lead from the first leg and holding a seven point lead at the top of SuperLiga with just four rounds to play, I am very pleased with our position, the title should be done and dusted before the semi final and then their entire focus can switch to this competition, well almost. They do have a domestic cup competition semi-final with rivals Porto next midweek, so a case that they might want to get through the game tonight with the minimum of effort and that is almost always, the Portugese way in any case. After winning 3-1 at Tottenham, they drew the home leg 2-2 and last year, en route to the final, they really only put their best foot forward in the home game, when it was the first leg, once holding a lead in the tie, it was always the case of adopting a professional approach and just getting the job done. AZ are, as you might expect from a team coached by Dick Advocaat (pictured), well organised defensively and the goal they conceded in the first leg, was just the 7th they have allowed in 11 group and knockout stage games in the competition. We discussed both coach and club ahead of their trip to Slovan Liberec in the group stage:
"The return to club coaching of Dick Advocaat in October was a bit of a surprise, but that he opted to do so with his former club was not. He and they probably felt there was some unfinished business and this time round he will not be distracted by also coahing Belgium and Russia at either end of his AZ arrangement. He has taken them up to a respectable 7th in Eredivisie, to the semi finals of the domestic cup and unbeaten through the group stages of this competition. It might be a long shot for them to win this competition, but I am sure that coach and team would like to go as far as possible. They made the last eight in the Europa League in 2011-12, losing to a strong Valencia team and whilst this group looks weaker, they have plenty of potential and youngsters looking to impress on a bigger stage, they have no major problems and we can expect them to be fully focused."
They remain in seventh place in the league and lost out to Ajax in the KNVB semi-finals, so this will be their main focus and we can expect a committed performance from them.They are unbeaten in six away games in Europe, but the bad/good news is that they are a bit toothless and have only scored against basement club Roda in their last four starts.
This is all about how this is likely to play out, I feel Benfica will be happy to see plenty of the ball, not take too many chances and wait for the goal which will seal progression. AZ are not going to overly force things early and will surely be happy to keep this scoreless as long as possible, of course, at some stage, probably over the final 30 minutes, they will have to take some chances, but I strongly feel it will be later rather than sooner. Domestically, AZ have conceded 30 away goals, 23 of which have come after the break, 17 in the 30 minutes straight after half time. Benfica's domestic stats show that they are strong in the first half , but that is against a lot of weak opponents and in games where they are looking for maximum points, they do not need to win tonight. However, they are at least AS strong in the second period ( collecting 54 points both before and after the break) and I think there is a good chance they will edge this after the break, once AZ decide to open up. One goal could quickly become two even if the first comes late, if AZ get too gung-ho, or throw in the towel.
I think the half time draw, especially at the upper end of the 2.40-2.60 quote is attractive and likewise the HT/FT option of Draw-Benfica @ 3.75-4.33, but "officially" I will suggest that we wait for -1 ball 2.10+ and then get involved (1.25 units), as always, I only want to bet if we are 11 v 11 and I do not want to bet if Benfica are already leading.
Good Luck.
Tottenham Hotspur- Benfica (written 13/03)
We backed Benfica to win this competition last year at 25-1+ and they just came up short in the final, losing narrowly to Chelsea, we made money nonetheless, but it was disappointing. Many times we have spoken about the great respect that teams from the Iberian Peninsula show the competition and holding a commanding seven point lead in SuperLiga and with nearest challengers Sporting and Porto meeting on Sunday and Benfica not playing until Monday evening, they can afford to give this their undivided attention. Tottenham will be looking for a reaction, after losing so tamely at Stamford Bridge and will get a couple of key players back tonight, but have the North London derby with Arsenal on Sunday and everyone at the club, management, players and supporters, knows where their priorities lie.
Notes about the visitors and the competition in general from 13 months ago are reproduced below and bear repeating. If they get through this round, I would probably only rate Juventus and possibly Napoli as stronger, but would never even consider the former at current odds and both ( Fiorentina and Porto respectively) are not guaranteed to progress even from this round, likewise Sevilla who have two derby games to battle through. I favour Benfica here over the two legs and their current outright quotes are 2-3 points bigger than I made them, as always in my 100% (no profit margin) book.
Benfica messed up in the Champions League against Olympiakos, but were unfortunate not to qualify from a group containing PSG with ten points and I think that and how close they came last season, will make them hungrier. Odds are significantly lower than last year, but we are a round further on and their domestic position is much stronger, so I see the quote at least as good. Ten of the 14 who played against Chelsea in last year's final are in the squad this evening, big loss was Nemanja Matic who rejoined Chelsea, but they invested heavily (35m euros +) in some impressive young talent , including a trio of Serbian youngsters Ljubomir Fejsa ,Filip Djuricic and Lazar Markovic, who have all make the trip tonight. Djuricic was lined up by Newcastle as a replacement for Cabaye and Chelsea are said to be VERY keen on Markovic, who has done nothing but impress, if you saw their 2-0 defeat of Porto in January, you will remember him.
Prolific and star striker Óscar Cardozo has featured little this season after being plagued by back problems, but has returned to action recently and will be "fresh" for the remainder of the campaign. It is a sign of how many options they have, that he has been little missed, but few teams would not be improved by his addition.Jorge Jesus is a very good coach, his team are very disciplined and both press high and in midfield and Jesus is fantastic at spotting weak links in the opposition, which his players focus on . They break very quickly both from the back and midfield and are strong on both flanks, they have a lot of pace right through the team, even up front ,when Cardozo doesn't play, but other options when he does.
Two bets for me: 1.25 units Benfica level ball 2.20 asian line/Ibramarket.
1.5 units Benfica to win the Europa League outright 11.0-12.0 general quote.
