Solid start for us in J-League, nine suggestions across the first four rounds have produced six winners at average odds of 2.36, with two losers and one "push". 

 

 

14-Feb-2025	J1 (1)	Gamba Osaka	2-5	Cerezo Osaka
22-Feb-2025	J1 (2)	Cerezo Osaka	1-2	Shonan Bellmare
26-Feb-2025	J1 (3)	Kashiwa Reysol	2-1	Cerezo Osaka
02-Mar-2025	J1 (4)	Albirex Niigata	2-2	Cerezo Osaka

 

Cerezo have been involved in some high scoring games already and that was their old modus operandi, something I touched upon and hoped would return, in preseason.....

 

Cerezo Osaka: were 10th, xP has them a shade higher, two places and three points, but more noteworthy is the fact that xGF gives them an additional 12 goals as this is a team we have long followed in goal markets. However, they sold top scorer Leo Ceara to Antlers (see above) and he scored 21 of their 43 goals last season. They have made some inventive additions, with creative players so I expect them to continue to create chances, but they have not made a natural replacement for Ceara so it will be interesting to see how they set up.

 

They will be keen to get that first home win today and whilst Nagoya have the opposite reputation, in that their game has always been based around a stout defence, they conceded 11 more goals in 2024 (xGA suggests a further three more) than they had in 2023 and that total has risen each year since 2020. Those problems appear to have been compounded, as opposed to addressed and they have shipped 11 goals already in their four games, 2+ in each, some of their numbers have been awful ( net -51 TIPA across their first two starts). Grampus also has a poor defensive record for the easy and relatively short trip to Osaka ( 48 minutes by Shinkansen), giving up 2+ goals on 4 of their last five visits, including five in losing the two most recent.

 

Nagoya have not been lucky with injuries and are without 2-3 players whom they expected to be team leaders this season. Typical of how things have gone is that after goalkeeper Mitchell Langerak returned home to Australia following 7 years with Grampus, through which he barely missed a game, he was replaced for a big fee by Daniel Schmidt, who almost immediately picked up a long term injury, meaning soon to be 38yo Yohei Takeda, who was only expected to be a bench warmer, has started every game. That is already more top flight starts for him than in any season since 2016 and whilst it is unfair for him to shoulder too much blame, it hasn't helped!

 

2.25 units Cerezo Osaka to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 2.75-3.0 general quote.

 

Good luck!