This weekend's Ligue 1 fixtures ..........one remaining
Feb 09, 2025
Ligue 1:
| 2024/25 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Paris SG | 20 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 54 | 19 | +35 | 50 | WXWW | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 11 | ||
| 2 | Marseille | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 25 | +18 | 40 | WLXW | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 10 | ||
| 3 | Monaco | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 37 | WWLX | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 10 | ||
| 4 | Lille | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 33 | 20 | +13 | 35 | WLWO | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 8 | ||
| 5 | Nice | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 39 | 26 | +13 | 34 | XWLW | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 17 | ||
| 6 | Lens | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 33 | WWLW | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 8 | ||
| 7 | Lyon | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 30 | LXOL | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | ||
| 8 | Brest | 20 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 36 | -5 | 28 | LWWW | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 21 | ||
| 9 | Strasbourg | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 33 | 32 | +1 | 27 | LWXW | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 22 | ||
| 10 | Toulouse | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 26 | XLOL | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | ||
| 11 | Auxerre | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 23 | LXLO | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 25 | ||
| 12 | Angers | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 23 | XLWW | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 10 | ||
| 13 | Reims | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 22 | LXXL | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | ||
| 14 | Nantes | 20 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 21 | WXXX | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 18 | ||
| 15 | Rennes | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 20 | WLLL | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 21 | ||
| 16 | Saint-Étienne | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 18 | LXXL | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 34 | ||
| 17 | Montpellier | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 20 | 46 | -26 | 15 | LWWL | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 25 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 21 | ||
| 18 | Le Havre | 20 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 39 | -24 | 14 | XLXL | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 17 | ||
Nantes- Stade Brestois 29
Paris St Germain- AS Monaco
Brest and PSG met in Brittany last weekend, with the league leaders and champions winning 5-2, ahead of the game my notes went a lot like this.....
These two teams are going to meet three times in 18 days, as they have drawn each other in the knockout stage of the Champions League (Feb 11 /Feb 19). I don't think PSG will have lost too much sleep over that draw, but Liverpool or Barcelona await in the R16 and the Parisians really need to build up a head of steam now and continue in the form they have shown in their last two CL games, a 4-2 win over Man City where they should have scored 6-7 goals and a 4-1 win in Stuttgart where they were four up inside 56 minutes and then started to remove players with other games, including this fixture, very much in mind. At the same time Brest were losing 3-0 at home to Real Madrid and they stumbled over the CL finishing line. They were the Ligue 1 surprise package in 2023/24 finishing 3rd, up 11 places, 17 points and 29 goals from the previous season. They lost some players in the off season and were never going to repeat last season's domestic heroics, so to qualify for the Knockout stage of the CL and to be placed 8th in Ligue 1 currently is a great achievement and financially, they have taken a big step forward. They have played 8 additional games and it will be 10 inside two weeks and they are unused to that number of fixtures or the level of competition and that is likely to come at a cost at some stage later in the season.
This is traditionally a high scoring fixture, PSG have won the last three visits 2-3/1-2/2-4 and the last three in Paris have ended 2-2/3-1/3-1. So both teams have scored in all six , but just a single point for Brest. The hosts didn't score in midweek, but it is 9 months and 17 games since they failed to do so in b2b home games. PSG drew their last league game 1-1 but it came in between those two "must win" CL games and they have won next time out after three of their last four draws and 3-1/4-2/3-1 kind of fits the pattern for what we are looking for and expecting today. 1-3 feels about right.
Both teams also played away to lower league opposition in the Coupe de France this midweek and each progressed to the quarter final stage. It is not easy to know how Brest will approach their trip to Nantes, it has already been a dream like 18 months for them, securing their highest ever league placing and first European place and that in the Champions League . Now they have built on that , have a CL knockout stage game with PSG, sit 8th in Ligue 1 and are in the final eight of the Coupe de France (only reached that stage once before). This is a club who's stadium doesn't meet UEFA standards, who were Ligue 2 in 2019 and who had the 4th lowest budget in the top flight in 2023/24 and the 5th lowest this season ,it was actually reduced by 6% for this campaign despite all that success. Their budget is 5% that of PSG and that is the mountain that they have to climb to beat the Parisian giants and what awaits them next midweek. So do they try and do the impossible beat PSG and sacrifice the league points this weekend, or approach both games in similar fashion ? They certainly need to be beating teams like Nantes if they want to return to Europe next season . They won 2-0 in the league here last season and the two teams have met twice this season in Brest with the hosts winning 4-1 just before Christmas and 2-1 in the Coupe de France three weeks ago, so all the positive h2h memories and some very recent ones are with them.
Nantes last seven games against top flight opposition have seen both teams score in each and that includes the two matches with Brest. They have won just 5 of 26 home games since the start of last season and the only really positive thing in their favour is that the visitors play PSG next midweek. I am not sure that is enough to justify the odds offered today and Brest head coach Eric Roy will feel silly if he rotates today and then loses heavily at home to PSG as his team invariably do (see above).
PSG have scored 14 goals in their last four trips to Brest, so I doubt they will over sweat that game until this weekend's fixture is out of the way. They are going to be welcomed home like conquering heroes by their adoring fans after 11 goals in three straight away wins and they will surely want to continue to build momentum both now and all the while Liverpool or Real Madrid await in the CL R16.
Monaco are winless in four away starts, conceding 8 goals since they lost 1-0 to PSG in the Trophee des Champions in Doha to start 2025 ( PSG won BC's 6-0, had 28 attempts on goal, 10 on target, 20 ITB with 46 TIPA, they hit the woodwork and were denied by 9 saves and score 3+ goals most days with those numbers). Despite winning two, they have conceded 7 goals in their last three outings, 2+ in each. PSG won the league game in the Principality 4-2 just before Christmas and the last league meeting in the capital 5-2.
2 units Stade Brestois 29 level ball @ 2.26 asian line.
1.75 units PSG to score "over" 2.5 goals @ 1.99 asian line.
1.5 units PSG to win and both teams to score @ 2.46 asian line.
Ligue 1: Lille- Le Havre
Lille made a rare appearance in my notes last Saturday when they hosted St Etienne..........
Good season for Lille, they secured a top 8 spot in the Champions League league with a 6-1 thrashing of Feyenoord on Wednesday and will be pleased with their position in the R16 having avoided all the really big names and they can forget about that until March in any case. It will be about all things domestic in the interim and with their next three starts against bottom four teams, they will be eyeing up a run at second place and securing a return to the lucrative CL again.
St Etienne are poor travellers with a 0-2-8 record and 7-30 goal difference and when they do turn it on in games, it is almost always after the break and that is what got my attention for today. The visitors have conceded 22 of 39 goals given up in the first half, which is the wrong way round(!) and scored only 4 of 18 in the first 45 minutes. Five of the six goals they have scored in 2025 came in the second half and the other in added time at the end of the first. One of those recent fixtures was a trip to the capital to play PSG and they trailed 2-0 at HT and lost 2-1 which is very much their modus operandi and how this could play out.
They won 4-1 which was "ok" for us, although the goals came the wrong way around in terms of when they were scored. Lille also played in midweek and lost a penalty shoot out in the Coupe de France to, of all teams, "our" Ligue 2 side Dunkerque and I must admit to feeling a little hard done by as I opted to swerve that game after tracking the visitors for 12 months. Anyhow, Lille have now both scored and conceded in seven straight starts and they have played four more games in the last month than basement club Le Havre who are in town today. The visitors have scored in their last five away starts with BTS in the last four and they have scored 60% of their goals this season on the road. They face a mighty struggle to survive, but might feel they have a free roll of the dice today as no one expects them to win here, but equally, Lille cannot keep a clean sheet at present, so I see the best value as ........
2.25 units both teams to score @ 2.22 asian line.
Ligue 1 : RC Strasbourg- Montpellier
We have been tracking Strasbourg for more than a year, there was a mountain of notes on them in last Sunday's email and they remain an interesting project, but I want to oppose them at least to some degree today and if they do win, then hopefully it will be by a 3-2 scoreline or similar.
Back to back wins over Monaco and Toulouse gave Montpellier survival hopes, but they came crashing back down to earth last week in a 2-0 home defeat to Lens, but I think we can forgive them that as performance / pressing levels and numbers were so good in the preceding games and against quality opponents. Also, Lens, who are as miserly as Wackford Squeers defensively, are not a team you want to concede first against and Starsbourg are far more open and have had a bit of a nightmare week. Things were going well for them until a 1-0 loss at Rennes last Sunday in a game in which they bossed and they then lost 3-1 at home to Angers in the Coupe de France and that makes for a quick turnaround and probably a bit of blow to confidence levels. They created a lot in that too, but were again misfiring and gave up 4 BC's against a team who are not great travellers. They do meet another of those today, but signs of recovery from the visitors and teams at the foot of the table who eventually survive almost always start to pick up early in the new year. It is a long while since Montpellier were in a relegation battle, but they have faced awful financial problems this season and have had to cobble together a team under returning head coach Jean-Louis Gasset at times. He is in his third spell as head coach and born and raised in the city and having spent 10 years here as a player and more than 15 in one coaching role or another, he has a love for the club and knows what makes it tick. He made some additions in the January window but all were loans or players without a club. If they do survive they should build a statue to JLG at the stadium. Today is more about it being a good time to face RCS and Montpellier have had nine days to prepare solely for this fixture and further bed in players and if they can reproduce the Monaco or Toulouse display they should, as a minimum, get some offensive joy today.
2 units Montpellier to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 3.0-3.25 general quote for the fourth time in six visits.
Good luck!
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