Brentford have more goals in them and potential going forward .............
Nov 04, 2024
Premier League: Fulham- Brentford
| 2024/25 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Liverpool | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 25 | WXWW | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 3 | ||
| 2 | Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 23 | LWWW | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | ||
| 3 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 19 | WWWX | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | ||
| 4 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 18 | XWLX | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | ||
| 5 | Arsenal | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 18 | LXLW | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | ||
| 6 | Aston Villa | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 18 | LXWO | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | ||
| 7 | Tottenham Hotspur | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 16 | WLWL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 7 | ||
| 8 | Brighton & HA | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 16 | LXWW | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | ||
| 9 | Bournemouth | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 15 | WXWL | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | ||
| 10 | Newcastle United | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 15 | WLLO | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | ||
| 11 | Brentford | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 18 | +0 | 13 | WLWX | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | ||
| 12 | Fulham | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | +0 | 12 | XLLW | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | ||
West London derby and a top 10 spot is the prize for the winner. For many Brentford supporters this is the biggest derby game, a lot of Fulham fans claim not to care about the Bees and consider Chelsea and QPR their main rival. All that attitude means is that Brentford are usually more "up" for this and have piled a lot of humiliation on the hosts in recent years, with Fulham winning just two of the last 15 regular season meetings and the mighty Bees nine. The visitors have also scored 2+ goals in 5 of 7 visits to Craven Cottage, including the last three, with a 3-0 win here last season. Overall, Brentford have scored more than twice as many goals across those 15 games and that bigger goal threat continues and the Bees have scored six more this season, albeit conceding six more also. However, six of those goals given up came in games they won and their four road games have come at Liverpool/Man City/ Tottenham/ Manchester United, in three of which they led and where they should have scored an additional three goals.
Fulham have played pretty well this season and should have a couple more points on board, but they have kept just a single clean sheet in 11 EPL starts and rode their luck in that game. They are well managed and better set up defensively now, at least in the backline, but do not have the goal threat of the Bees and my preseason notes on the hosts touched upon that..........
Fulham will have been very pleased with how 23/24 played out, but head coach Marco Silva always feels like it would not take much for him to move and he can be outspoken at times, but he did not take the Saudi riches last summer so he might be happy at Craven Cottage. The signing of Emile Smith Roe from Arsenal looks decent business, but the loss of Joao Palhinha to Bayern Munich is big, in his two seasons in the EPL with the club he only played 20 minutes or less in ten games and they lost 6 and conceded at the rate of 2.3 per start. Their 47 points was a 5 point drop off from 22/23 and xP gives them two fewer still. They conceded eight goals more and with a shake up needed in central defence and no natural replacement for Palhinha (they only have one natural DM and Silva likes to play with two), goals against could be an issue and it is not like they are flush at the other end of the pitch. They performed better in that regard last season than I expected, but no one scored more than nine goals and their strikers are of the long in the tooth/ not quite been up to EPL/lacking in experience variety and right now, they need Brazilian Rodrigo Muniz to step up and /or Raul Jimenez to perform. The Mexican did well with 7 goals, but that still makes only 17 in four seasons and whilst he had that horrific injury, we are talking about 83 appearances.
They had the odd really good result, especially at Craven Cottage, but it was feast or famine there and 27 (from16.8 xGF) goals (which is half of what they scored all season) came in 8 home games, just 4 total in the other 11 and for my money, that is too many offensive no shows.
Jimenez has 4 goals which is ok, no one else has more than two and only one other striker has played any first team minutes apart from the 33yo Mexican and they feel an injury away from a real issue. The same is true in DM where they are starting Sander Berge, who was signed from Burnley (his last two seasons in the EPL, only campaigns really, have both ended in relegation) alongside a converted Andreas Pereira, he has made six starts in that position (Fulham conceding 1.5 goals pg) and when either is replaced, as one or both tend to be during the game, it is by an out and out AM, or central defender. Despite playing in the holding role, Pereira is still their chief playmaker and he has created a sky high 26 chances , second most in the EPL, but NONE have been converted! It is hard to play those dual roles and he has played less than 70 minutes in 4 of his last 5 starts and left the field with a knock in the other (last time out).
It will definitely pay us to monitor Fulham team news going forward and Jimenez, Berge or Pereira being absent should always be noted.
For today, Brentford have the pace and goal threat to continue to trouble Fulham as they usually do, with almost all offensive players in top form. Only Erling Haaland has scored more goals than Bryan Mbeumo and a hat-trick this evening would take him level with the City superstar. Yoane Wissa has nine goals in his last 11 appearances, one every 77 minutes. Mikkel Damsgaard (huge pressing game and 4 assists , 17 chances created and second for xA amongst non Big 6 teams) and Keane Lewis Potter are in their best ever form for the club and at 24 and 23yo are still fast improving and growing in confidence.
Bees will have star LB Rico Henry, Gustavo Nunes and record signing Igor Thiago available soon, the two Brazilian players have yet to make a first team debut, the trio are all highly thought of and will be like three new signings. Having got four super tough away games out of the way, they could really kick on in the second half of the season and would already move up to 9th with the win this evening.
2.25 units Brentford level ball @ 2.66 asian line, or to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 2.64, both of which appeal quite strongly.
Good luck!
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