Last year I put up three selections for the Open, one of which was Brian Harman @ a general 200-1 and at least four of you backed him at odds of 300-1 + on the exchanges. We have nothing that price today, but hopefully have a couple of strong bets, including another outsider who I expect to go well.

 

First up a warning, and it is the same one I give at every Open, especially those played in Scotland. You need the luck of the draw to win and it is almost impossible to know if you want to be playing early/late or late/early ahead of time and often until the first two days are complete. There is so much daylight at this time of year that play is spread from circa 06:30 to 16:30 over the the first two days and the weather can change dramatically on these links courses in a few minutes let alone 10 hours and one golfer can play in a howling gale both days and another in totally benign conditions. BTW, in all golf events if you go out early Thursday , you play late Friday and vice versa and that is meant to be fair, but at the Open it doesn't often make for a level playing field and in the last decade, being on the wrong side of draw has cost Rory another Open and Adam Scott probably two IMO and there are any number of other hard luck stories.

 

Anyway, ideally, we should be looking for a golfer ranked top 35 in the world, who is a US or European national, with a previous top 10 in the Open, a top 3 finish this year, a top 25 in the last two majors, a top 2 in a major at previously and with a top 10 in one of his last three starts. 

 

That leaves a short list of .....

 

 

A lot of favourites on that list and that is kind of obvious given the criteria we are looking for, good ranking, in form, with "previous" in the event and majors. 

 

Rory ticks all the boxes and looks the perfect fit for this event and then some and would have to be my selection for this week if my life depended on picking the winner. Luckily it doesn't and without a major win since 2014 and that loss at last month's US Open which still has me waking up in a cold sweat at night, so goodness knows what it has done to him, he is kind of an easy pass for now, but I would not rule out betting him at some stage and I do have one angle we could look at for him and which I will return to shortly.

 

The last ten winners of the Open have seen three priced at triple digit prices , only two at sub 20.0 and no one less than 16-1.  That "rules out" the front two in Scheffler and Rory at least for now in terms of winning outright. 

 

At Royal Troon you have to be able to scramble, that is the key stat and scoring is easier on the Front 9 holes 

 

Bryson DeChambeau has only one top 33 finish in seven Opens and this just doesn't feel like his kind of golf.

 

Collin Morikawa has a great chance and is another I would not rule out betting at some stage at the moment, but his Scrambling was poor last Sunday and he has let 3-4 winning chances pass recently and where he was finding a way to win in the past, he is now struggling to get over the line. Having said that, he is an Open winner (2021) ,but has missed the cut in his other two Opens played subsequently and there are too many concerns about him pre-tournament.

 

No one has won back to back Opens since 2008 and it is a mighty ask for Brian Harman to do so and in many ways, he remains a journeyman golfer. However, he ticks all the boxes, was ranked number one on Tour for Scrambling in 2023 and arrives in decent enough form with a 9th at the Travellers before he left the US and a solid 21st in Scotland last week. In that he was accurate off the tee and with his approach play and played his best golf of the week on Sunday when he was bogey free in difficult conditions and #1 in the field for Scrambling. He has finished 19-6-1 in his last three Opens and clearly this style of golf suits and whilst he has to carry the heavy yoke of the champion , he will do so with pride and should go well. Decent value in him to record a 4th straight top 20 finish at the Open.........

 

 

I also put up three outright selections , two at big odds, but will have to leave those for subscribers.

 

Good luck!

 

 

Last year I put up three selections for the Open, one of which was Brian Harman @ a general 200-1 and at least four of you backed him at odds of 300-1 + on the exchanges. We have nothing that price today, but hopefully have a couple of strong bets, including another outsider who I expect to go well.

 

First up a warning, and it is the same one I give at every Open, especially those played in Scotland. You need the luck of the draw to win and it is almost impossible to know if you want to be playing early/late or late/early ahead of time and often until the first two days are complete. There is so much daylight at this time of year that play is spread from circa 06:30 to 16:30 over the the first two days and the weather can change dramatically on these links courses in a few minutes let alone 10 hours and one golfer can play in a howling gale both days and another in totally benign conditions. BTW, in all golf events if you go out early Thursday , you play late Friday and vice versa and that is meant to be fair, but at the Open it doesn't often make for a level playing field and in the last decade, being on the wrong side of draw has cost Rory another Open and Adam Scott probably two IMO and there are any number of other hard luck stories.

 

Anyway, we should be looking for a golfer ranked top 35 in the world, who is a US or European national, with a previous top 10 in the Open, a top 3 finish this year, a top 25 in the last two majors, a top 2 in a major at previously and with a top 10 in one of his last three starts. 

 

That leaves a short list of .....

 

 

A lot of favourites on that list and that is kind of obvious given the criteria we are looking for, good ranking, in form, with "previous" in the event and majors. 

 

Rory ticks all the boxes and looks the perfect fit for this event and then some and would have to be my selection for this week if my life depended on picking the winner. Luckily it doesn't and without a major win since 2014 and that loss at last month's US Open which still has me waking up in a cold sweat at night, so goodness knows what it has done to him, he is kind of an easy pass for now, but I would not rule out betting him at some stage and I do have one angle we could look at for him and which I will return to shortly.

 

The last ten winners of the Open have seen three priced at triple digit prices , only two at sub 20.0 and no one less than 16-1.  That rules out the front two in Scheffler and Rory at least for now in terms of winning outright. 

 

At Royal Troon you have to be able to scramble, that is the key stat and scoring is easier on the Front 9 holes and with those numbers I have to give a strong mention to Xander Schauffele, who has been ranked top 5 for front nine hole scoring in R1 in the last two years and is currently #1 on Tour by some way for Scrambling. He makes all the other criteria required too, but my concern with him is that his only big finish in the Open was a 2nd in 2018 and he has not been better than 15th subsequently , whilst posting 11 top 10's in the other slams and we might conclude that they all suit him better than this. However, he won the Scottish Open in 2022 and was a nice 15th in that at the weekend and he arrives at Royal Troon as the #2 ranked player in the world and now, finally, as a major winner and he has to go close you feel.

 

2 units Xander Schauffele to win outright @ 17.0 Betfair.

 

Bryson DeChambeau has only one top 33 finish in seven Opens and this just doesn't feel like his kind of golf.

 

Collin Morikawa has a great chance and is another I would not rule out betting at some stage at the moment, but his Scrambling was poor last Sunday and he has let 3-4 winning chances pass recently and where he was finding a way to win in the past, he is now struggling to get over the line. Having said that, he is an Open winner (2021) ,but has missed the cut in his other two Opens played subsequently and there are too many concerns about him pre-tournament.

 

No one has won back to back Opens since 2008 and it is a mighty ask for Brian Harman to do so and in many ways, he remains a journeyman golfer. However, he ticks all the boxes, was ranked number one on Tour for Scrambling in 2023 and arrives in decent enough form with a 9th at the Travellers before he left the US and a solid 21st in Scotland last week. In that he was accurate off the tee and with his approach play and played his best golf of the week on Sunday when he was bogey free in difficult conditions and #1 in the field for Scrambling. He has finished 19-6-1 in his last three Opens and clearly this style of golf suits and whilst he has to carry the heavy yoke of the champion , he will do so with pride and should go well. Decent value in him to record a 4th straight top 20 finish at the Open.........