World cup knockout stage ...........upset time ?
Dec 06, 2022
2022 FIFA World Cup:
Portugal- Switzerland
Morocco- Spain
Yesterday I noted ..........
No shocks so far with all four favourites in Netherlands, Argentina, France and England progressing without the need of extra time and three doing so by multiple goals, but only England kept a clean sheet. Each led at half time, all three goals from the outsiders were scored after the 77th minute and the winners scored a combined five goals between the 36th and 45th minute, which is when three opened the scoring.
No surprises per se, with Brazil winning 4-1, but they led 4-0 at the break and the South Korean goal came in the 77th minute to (almost) keep that trend going and Croatia progressing, albeit only on penalties and we got another two goals between those 36th-45th minutes, including the opener for Japan.
I certainly don't want the favourite bubble to be burst by Portugal and whether they are going to make the final or not, I would certainly like to see them in the last eight. They and the Swiss have met twice this year already, both in June, in the Nations League with Portugal winning 4-0 in Lisbon (6-0 BC and 15-1 ITB !), but then losing 1-0 in Geneva when they conceded inside the opening 57 seconds. Christiano Ronaldo was missing in the return leg, after scoring twice in the home tie and his absence might have been the difference, as Portugal won xG by 1.4 after the goal and were also 2-0 BC's , 20-5 attempts , 12-2 ITB. Those are some eye-catching numbers and I have been a little more impressed than most watchers by Portugal here and their myriad of options from the bench. Ahead of the tournament I wrote ............
We have some tournament winning history with Portugal as we backed them in Euro 2016 at big odds (19.0). The best they have ever done in the World Cup is two semi final spots, but they have not made it beyond the R16 since 2016. Also, global superstar Cristiano Ronaldo is now 37yo and has spent most of this week talking to the media about what is wrong at Manchester United. That might inspire him and I would not write him off just yet, he was joint top scorer at last year's Euros, but it is the rest of the squad and what has happened in Portugese football over the last 12 months or so that I am more interested in. Seven of the squad play domestically, all the others for teams in the Big five european leagues and 16 for Champions League teams, making this a very elite group.
Mendes/Pereira (PSG), Dias/Cancelo/Silva ( Man City), Dalot/Fernandes/CR (Man United) and some huge youthful talent at other clubs Felix (Atletico) , Neves (Wolves) and gifted Leao ( Milan). They have a handful of players in this squad who could be the #1 star in many other nations at this tournament and I do not see any real on pitch weaknesses. Head coach Fernando Santos has been in charge since 2014 and led his team to that Euro 2016 title and also the 18/19 Nations League, he has made Portugal very tough to beat and his 16.5% loss rate compares favourably with all the big name national team head coaches who have been in charge for 100+ games, but is accused of being too conservative at times and it is hard to dispute that. I hope that he has possibly learned a lesson from the qualifying scare and that he and the squad will be all out to win this section and avoid Brazil , they start against Ghana who are the lowest ranked team in the tournament and it is the ideal opportunity to put three points on the board and onto the backburner (at least for the wrong reasons) the Ronaldo media circus . If they could throw the shackles off just a little and play to their strengths, this is a squad with huge offensive talent.
Benfica, Porto and to a lesser extent Sporting, all impressed in the Champions League. Porto won their group and Benfica topped a section including PSG and Juventus, they were unbeaten, played fearlessly and scored 16 goals. They impressed the Parisians so much that the French champions immediately decided afterwards that they had to change formation. Only six of the Porto and Benfica players made this squad, but that only further highlights just how good the options are , two of the Benfica youngsters who did make the cut for Qatar seem likely to be playing EPL football next season and it feels like Portuguese football is on the rise and with 11 of this WC squad in the 19-25 age group range and plenty waiting in the wings, this has "golden generation" possibilities in addition to all the current undoubted quality.
My feeling is that they have plenty more to give/show and if only head coach Fernando Santos would be a little more willing to allow his players free expression, we might see it. He gets heavily criticised by the media and fans at home too, but the truth is that under him Portugal have won two trophies and none in the circa 84 years prior to his arrival and it also goes under the radar that Portugal is a country with a population of just 10m people. No one can call him a modern coach and his safety first approach appears dated now, but he has the support of the players it seems and they do cut loose occasionally. They lost to South Korea in the final group game, but had already qualified and they have not lost back to back games since 2014, next time out after a defeat subsequently, they are 12-3-0 scoring 3.2 goals pg and 2+ in 13 of those 15 starts. Also, they are more high scoring than many give them credit for, they have scored in 20/24 starts, with 2+ goals in 17 and in that sequence played 8 FIFA top 15 ranked opponents. Portugal totally bossed all but one minute of those two h2h games this summer and I expect them to progress, my suggestion will be ............
1.75 units Portugal to score "over" 1.5 goals 2.12 asian line.
Morocco featured heavily in my pre tournament notes ...........
Morocco:
Morocco made the Friday notes when I wrote one line about each of the four teams in Group F..........
Belgium 2 / 1.........we know all about their talents, but they have lost their last five starts against what I would call elite European opposition and are they really still sticking with Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen at the back ? Several fitness questions to be answered too.
Canada 41 / 33 ........ finished top of a qualifying group usually dominated by Mexico and the US, and with something to spare, we will discuss them in more detail next week, but dark horse potential.
Morocco 22 / 10............2018 was their first finals in 20 years and they went out at the group stage with just a single point, but they impressed and might easily have taken 7 points from a group containing two elite European teams. They have not lost a competitive fixture inside 90 minutes since June 2018 (42 games)! Be wary of opposing them.
Croatia 12 / 3.........made the final four years ago, but key players are very long in the tooth now , having said that they won a strong Nations League section and know how to peak.
I can start today by saying that I was keen on Canada until recently, but they have a few injuries to key players and after much consideration, I feel the tournament is just at the wrong time of year for them. However, they look on the rise and are co-hosting along with the US and Mexico the next World Cup, so will want to take something from this tournament, but we can come back to that when we discuss their group stage games.
Morocco were ultra impressive in qualifying. CAF is almost always a low scoring Confederation, but they won all six group stage games in the second round, with a 20-1 goal difference, all six by 2+, scoring 3+ in five. That made them one of ten teams to reach the next ( playoff) stage, they were paired with DR Congo and won 5-2 on aggregate, three of the other "finals" were decided after extra time , or by away goals and the fourth by a single goal. So, very impressive and they have been approaching games unlike many CAF teams and I hope they bring that offensive threat with them to Qatar. In those notes from last Friday, I said they were unbeaten inside 90 minutes in 32 starts, that was a typo, it is actually 42! Their last defeat was 1-0 to Portugal in June 2018 at the last World Cup!
Ahead of that event four years ago I wrote ...........
I am keen on Morocco whom I watched quite a bit in qualifying and at last year's African Cup of Nations where they came through a very tough group, beating and eliminating Ivory Coast , they lost to a late goal from Egypt in the last 8 , but were much the better team in that, missed a host of chances and were twice denied by the woodwork. In WC qualification they were again paired with Ivory Coast, plus Mali and Gabon, did not concede a goal in six games, including a 2-0 win in Abidjan where they looked very impressive and composed. They are an athletic, fit , organised and disciplined team under experienced tournament head coach Herve Renard ( is he really only 49 ?) who has won two ACN's. His contract has been extended until 2022 and they are planning to be in the next finals too , maybe laying down the groundwork here for a deep run in Qatar where conditions will suit . That doesn't have to preclude success in Russia and this is a very big deal for them, as it is 20 years since the Atlas Lions qualified for the World Cup.
They have no offensive superstars, or none that we know of yet, but in defence veteran Medhi Benatia of Juventus and 19 yo Achraf Hakimi who has already played La Liga and Champions league games for Real Madrid highlight the blend of talented youngsters and experience that they have and there will be a lot of scouts from the biggest clubs watching their younger players. They are as defensively solid a unit as you will see at these championships, certainly outside the top ranked teams and will not be easy for any team to score against, they have not lost in over a year, playing 19 games ( 14-5-0) with a 43-8 goal difference and beating Egypt/ South Korea/ Slovakia/ Nigeria/Serbia. If any of you have watched a Moroccan league game you will know how fanatical the support is and they will have a lot of fans in Russia who will be amongst the nosiest and most fun, these three made an early start in Moscow ! Despite that great defensive record they are more fluid than you might expect and can play a three or four man backline and switch if needed through games, they are also very good from set pieces and strong aerially.
Renard did not last long after the World Cup (now in charge of Saudi Arabia) and he was too cautious at times. We are two head coaches on from him now and they currently have a Moroccan in charge in Walid Regragui, who has a much better relationship with the players (not hard) than the man he replaced.
They are an Arab and Islamic country, so will be very much at home here, many Moroccans are based in Qatar and "thousands" are expected to travel to watch their beloved Atlas Lions play at the World Cup.
The squad contains nine who played at the last World Cup and 15 who play in the top 5 European Leagues (only 9 four years ago) and they are a more adventurous group now , scoring freely with 71 goals in last 30 starts and conceding only 17 in that unbeaten 42 game run, along with 29 clean sheets. Morocco have a pair of world class full backs in Noussair Mazraoui ( Bayern Munich) and Achraf Hakimi (PSG) who love to get forward and provide a big attacking threat and a top ranked goalkeeper in Yassine Bounou (Bono) who was recently named 9th best in the world at the Ballon d'Or and was voted best in La Liga last season. Chelsea's Hakim Ziyech is the other "name" and owes his nation a big showing at these championships after being the catalyst for the previous head coach leaving, although Vahid Halilhodzic does seem to fall out with a lot of people!
Morocco went toe to toe with Portugal and Spain four years ago ,were not found wanting and look stronger now. They will be very happy in their surroundings here and despite this being a very tough group containing the #2 nation in the world and a finalist from 2018, we get a big price about a team not used to losing, who would not really have to improve too much from 2018 to give Belgium and Croatia a game and who will carry a lot of very noisy support, both local and from home.
Belgium and Croatia both look ageing ,the latter fell out of the blocks at the last Euros and feel already in the first stages of transition and I can see both being vulnerable on the counter and decent value for Morocco to spring a surprise.
2 units Morocco to qualify from Group F @ 3.0-3.25 general quote.
I have highlighted a couple of those lines this morning. They won their group, beating Belgium 2-0 en route and have only conceded once at these championships and that in a game where they had all but progressed and led 2-0. Basically, they have forgotten how to lose a competitive fixture in 90 minutes
( four years and 45 games !) and that is a very useful talent and they led Spain twice when the two met at the group stage in Kaliningrad four years ago , including entering the 92nd minute. That game ended 2-2 and whilst there is more at stake today and Spain have the greater knockout stage experience, we can make a strong case for Morocco having improved the greater subsequently and today will be like a home game with pretty much no less support than what they would get in Casablanca or Rabat.
Spain have scored nine goals, but from an xG of "just" 5.2 and a respective 7 and 3.6 of those came against Costa Rica who were beyond dire that night and in two games against Japan and Germany they averaged only 0.8 xGF and allowed 1.3 xGA in both. I have some concerns about Spain as a defensive unit, that might seem odd, but they have conceded in 7/12 starts , including to Albania and Jordan and twice to Czech Republic, Switzerland and Japan and they have not won a competitive game in six starts (and only once in 12) when their opponent has scored a goal and I certainly favour Morocco to score today.
There we have it, the first upset of the knockout stage!
2 units Morocco +0.5 ball 2.73 asian line.
There is also circa 10.0 for Morocco and Portugal both to score "over" 1.5 goals and that is calling to me like the Song of the Sirens !
Good luck!
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