Ligue 2 snippets from this morning's clubgowi subscriber newsletter

Jan 31, 2014

France: Ligue 2

Two weeks ago we looked at the goalscoring trends in Ligue 2 over the first half (19 rounds) of the campaign....The goals flowed in Ligue 2 last week, six of the seven fixtures went "over" at an average of 3.57, the last round of games pushed the mean for the season up to 2.51, which is way up on last, or any recent season at the same stage. Through 19 rounds, goals averaged 2.14 in 2010/11, 2.24 in 11/12, 2.34 last season and now 2.51, we have spoken of this before, games are far more open nowadays and teams no longer go looking to shut up shop on the road. Last season the three promoted clubs averaged just shy of ten wins each,a decade ago it was five. Football is an entertainment business and Ligue 2 have belatedly caught on to that fact. my feeling remains that the oddsmakers have not.

That trend continued with Round 20 averaging 2.8 goals and six of the ten matches going "over" and last week again saw six games produce at least three goals, three of the other four ended 0-0 so some fixtures do revert to type, but they tend to involve teams who for whatever reason are happy with a point and others who buck the trend and have a more old school approach, but in general terms, the trend continues upwards. But there are signs this week that the oddsmakers have caught on somewhat and quotes, across the board, are a little lower.

Chateauroux-Auxerre

Auxerre also have that very difficult Monday-Friday turnaround to deal with and we have seen time and time again that teams have struggled with that. The situation is made all the harder as top scorer Paul-Georges Ntep (17-7-2....pictured) has finally made his long touted move to Rennes, although injury wise they are in better shape now.

Only five goals on the road all season, but two came at Nimes last time out and they will probably fancy their chances of scoring today against the weakest defence in Ligue 2.

Chateauroux have played at relegation level for the last 12 months and it is hard to argue they are not in their true position, in 19th and with just CA Bastia below them in the table.Today they are without suspended front man Kévin Dupuis (13-4-1) and injured midfielders Ludovic Guerriero and Emeric Dudouit.

Châteauroux : Bonnefoi, Millieras - Nestor, Bain, Fournier, Obiang, Afougou, Esor - De Freitas, Filkor, Tait, Chamed, Peuget - Maboulou, Garita, Makengo, Bourgeois.

Auxerre : Léon, Lembet, Castelletto, Ramos, Boly, Coulibaly, Marester, Boé Kane, Monconduit, Ngando, Aït Ben Idir, Sammaritano, Viale, Kitambala, Haller, Sawadogo.

Nimes-Tours

Nimes are without suspended central defender Aurélien Boche (17-1-0) and that has to be a loss (just one cleansheet in the 12 matches he has missed in the last two seasons... conceded two or more in seven of those).

Tours could move into the top three with the win and have a very good record here, not losing in six visits and posting three wins, they put five past Chateauroux last week with Billy Ketkeophomphone (18-7-6) putting in a MOTM performance and almost singlehandedly waking his team up from their slumber, after a very sluggish opening third.

Nîmes : Merville, Michel - Benmeziane, Sartre, Bouby, Cissokho, Gragnic, Hsissane, Koura, Kovacevic, Nouri, Poulain, Omrani, Cordoval, Robail, Benyahia.

Tours : Leroy, Maubleu - Bouhours, Diawara, Fontaine, Guihoata, Seguin, Schwechlen, Cetout, Chavalerin, Diaz, Ketkeophomphone, Santamaria, Adnane, Delort, Kouakou.

Istres-Creteil

The Istres offensive threat is lessened with the loss of Geoffrey Malfleury, but they scored twice last week in his absence and veteran midfielder Jérôme Leroy is in the in best goalscoring form for years ( and he has been around for many !) and has three in his last two starts and they added a new striker this week with the signing of Seydou Koné who scored six for Nimes at this level last season.

Following promotion last season Creteil will probably be very pleased with their haul of 26 points, they are only one place ahead of Istres, but have a five point advantage and more importantly, a seven point buffer over the drop zone.

The visitors have made a couple of signings this week, but neither are available today, they arrive without suspended Portugese left back Augusto (17-0-2 .....0-2-2 without him, with eight goals conceded) and defensive midfielder Danilson da Cruz (16-1-0.... no wins in five in his absence) who is injured.

Istres : Balijon, Lejeune - Chafik, Doumbia, Barillon, Le Goff, Tardieu, Jeunechamp, Keita, Leroy, Dabo, Diarra, Bosqui, Ba, Boulaya, Matheus, Koné.

Créteil : Kerboriou, N’Doye I. - Di Bartolomeo, Diedhiou C., Ikoko, Mahon de Monaghan - Djellilahine, Lafon, Lesage, Ludovic, Ndoye, Seck, Tribeau - Andriatsima, Belvito, Essombé.

The notes above are just snippets taken from today's newsletter, they are not the full preview, which might well contain counter arguments and you should not make assumptions about where the final analysis has taken us.

Good Luck.

CA Bastia-Istres (written 24/07)

Istres did both us and themselves a big favour last week with that 3-1 defeat of Brest and as we are discussing both teams today, that is a pretty good place to start....

In addition to the goal stats above, this also falls into the "two struggling teams equals goals" category, with Brest falling dangerously close to the drop zone and Istres' problems being well documented......almost week by week by me ! However, rather than repeat those, I have reproduced the notes from the reverse fixture back in August where we went with the "over" and were not disappointed , with Brest winning 3-1.

The visitors lost 1-0 at home to Lens on Monday, no real shame in that, but it does mean they also have that terribly difficult Mon-Fri quick turnaround to deal with and they will struggle to keep Istres, who know that their next three matches, Brest, Bastia and Creteil will go a long way towards deciding their fate , out this evening, Especially as the visitors will be without defensive midfielder Diallo Guidileye and centre back Ismaël Traoré (13-0-0 ....no wins in six without him).

I would like to take the over here, everything points to it apart from one thing and that is that Brest have scored just three goals in nine starts, seven of which came against teams outside the top 7 and that is simply not good enough, for all their faults Istres usually find a goal or two at home and in on loan striker Geoffrey Malfleury have a potent front man, who has scored five in nine appearances since arriving from Le Havre.

That was a huge result for Istres, but the scoreline was flattering, they could and should have been behind before taking the lead and some of their defending was again very poor. This is something we have discussed previously, last time was ahead of their trip to Chateauroux at the end of last year ....You can see the goals from the Istres-Nimes match on this link, it is not for the faint hearted, especially if you appreciate good defending, but shows an excellent team spirit from Istres and the good shape of Geoffrey Malfleury , who scored a hat-trick and as most of you know, "I loves me" a striker in form ! His signing might just be the piece of business which gives the visitors a chance of survival and he will surely pose a big threat tonight with Chateauroux short in central defensive areas. However, and you knew it was coming, Istres are not very good at the back themselves and have not kept a cleansheet on the road in 14 starts and conceded two or more in six of their last seven, at an average of 2.43 per game.

They have kept just one cleansheet in seven starts since and that came against a team who played 50+ minutes with ten men and they also faced two lower level opponents in that sequence. Their budget is tiny and I believe, only superior to CA Bastia, so this is most definitely the battle of the "have nots", in a league where there are some well funded teams. Anyway, Istres have lifted themselves up to 15th, but are one of five teams separated by only a single point and they do not have either the resources, or defensive ability to pull away from this group , if they are to survive, it will be by the skin of their teeth and decided by their ability to score goals. This is a relegation six pointer, between two struggling teams and that normally means goals and given that and the current trend in Ligue 2 and the generous looking odds offered, that is how I am leaning .

The hosts are in deep trouble, seven points adrift at the foot of the table, but a shock win at highflying Nancy last week has given them a lifeline and their fragile confidence got a further boost in midweek with an extra time win over Niort in the cup.They have only scored nine goals all season, but they have not been facing a backline as suspect as Istres every week and four goals in the last seven days hints at better to came from the hosts offensively and they have to gamble today. Edit: Geoffrey Malfleury is injured for Istres, this is very late news and he might be out for several weeks, I have scaled down stakes considerably (1.75 to 1.25 units, but still like this bet) 1.25 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.23 asian line/Ibramarket.... there is bigger on offer elsewhere if you shop around.

Bastia CA : Lombard (cap.), Philippon - Phojo, Oswald, Mam.Camara, C.Fabre, Salis, Rouamba, Marty, Moizini, Mba, Rivas, Fourtier, Grimaldi, Al.N'Diaye, Pastorelli.

Istres : Balijon, Lejeune - Doumbia, Kehiha, Le Goff, Tardieu, Jeunechamp, Keita, Leroy (cap.), Dabo, Diarra, Bosqui, Ba, Boulaya,Matheus.

Country:

Sport:

Competition:

Football Teams: