Today's clubgowi subscriber football notes .............
Jun 04, 2022
Japan J-League Cup:
Consadole Sapporo- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus- Kyoto Sanga
Cerezo Osaka- Shonan Bellmare
Avispa Fukuoka - Kashima Antlers
These knockout stage ties (4 games) are played over two legs, with the return games next weekend and the four winners will then progress to the quarter finals alongs with the teams who have played AFC Champions League football ( Frontale/ Marinos/ Vissel Kobe and Urawa Reds) .
The second legs are usually good for betting purposes and the quarter finals (August 3rd and 10th) tend to follow a set pattern and those games are when the League Cup is most interesting, but we can take a brief look at two fixtures today and start by saying teams should take the competition more seriously from this point on and field stronger line ups than for the group stage, when heavy rotation is the order of the day.
Cerezo Osaka - Shonan Bellmare
This is a quick rematch after Cerezo won 2-0 in Hiratsuka City last weekend ,ahead of which I wrote ...........
We discussed Cerezo's last two starts and both were included in the midweek notes ( see Wednesday's email) when they beat Urawa 2-0.
At around the same time Shonan were recording the shock result of the season when they won 4-0 away to two time champions Kawasaki Frontale ahead of which I noted ..............
Frontale are in their "rightful" place at the top of the table, but it is hard to argue against them having gone slightly backwards from what was an unsustainable standard, with the team from Kawasaki having rewritten the history books in the last two campaigns and they are 8 points and 17 goals short of this same stage (14 games) last season. Early in this campaign I spoke about their numbers no longer being of that elite level and whilst they might still be good enough to beat most and possibly to again win the league, they are clearly less efficient at both ends of the pitch, at least for now. Shonan are unlikely to overly test the home side in terms of winning, but they are coming off a rare victory, which will boost confidence levels and they have scored a goal on 9/10 visits, albeit losing the last four.
Frontale have four clean sheets in a row, including two versus bottom 3 teams, so easy for most to see a 5th, but the numbers say they have ridden their luck to some degree defensively in all four, three of their opponents hit the woodwork, Kobe might easily have scored twice ( see below) and at the weekend Sagan had 9 attempts ITB, it is only so long that can continue and I like Shonan to start the ball rolling today. The home side have some defensive issues not helped at all today by the suspension to captain and CB Shogo Taniguchi (conceded six goals in the last five league games he has missed).
That's back to back games in which Frontale have not scored or created a BC and it is very hard to explain, we can normally expect them to bounce back, but the truth is their numbers have been poor (it is all relative) all season and this is not the Frontale who have
dominated Japanese football in recent years. Kyoto are average at best but do not concede many home goals, we get big odds and we can chance a little on another upset. Shonan have now won three in a row ( 2 league) , they have not scored in the last three home meetings with Cerezo, but scored a handful in a 5-1 win in Osaka late last season, which was the last time these two met. If we took that and the win in Kawasaki in isolation, we would think they were world beaters, as it is , it is hard to know where to place them, but definitely improving . Cerezo's away starts should have produced an additional 6-7 goals ( 3.25 xg) and their road xGA of 1.74 is 4th worst. Shonan's home xGF of 1,55 is actually sixth best and this game promises goals.
Cerezo were worthy winners, but Shonan should definitely have scored a goal and we were a little unfortunate with that "over" bet. Cerezo have turned into something of a cup side in recent seasons, making three domestic finals in the last five years, two in this competition which they won in 2017 and were runners up last season, also reaching the last four of the Emperor's Cup. We can expect them to give this full respect, I guess Shonan will too, but they need to survive in the league and I am not sure they need the two August fixtures against another elite team. The hosts had a fine 6-1-0 home h2h record before that 5-1 loss last season and I doubt they feel even that 2-0 win last weekend is sufficient revenge just yet. Home win !
1.75 units Cerezo Osaka -0.75 ball 2.39 asian line.
Consadole Sapporo- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Consadole have hit the buffers big time and lost their last three starts by a combined 2-15, with just one win in six , shipping 21 goals. Sanfrecce have won their last three and are unbeaten in three visits to Sapporo (which must be just about their longest trip from Hiroshima) winning two and drawing 1-1 on opening day of this season. That was a fair result, but these two have very different recent form and Sanfrecce are on the up, 10 days ahead of a postponed trip to play Gamba osaka I concluded my notes with .......
Hiroshima have found some form and have lost just once in 9 starts ( 5 wins) scoring 15 goals , it is a very long time indeed since they put in a top 4 push, but they are actually 4th this morning and at home in their next two starts, so have a chance to kick on and they cannot fear a trip to Gamba right now, they won 2-1 here last season and a repeat looks likely. Gamba have the second worst xGA (1.77 pg) at home in J-League, Sanfrecce the best away XGF by far with 2.15 pg, which is 0.45 better than anyone else and 0.75 better than Frontale and YFM who have set the benchmark for performance levels for the last 4-5 seasons.
That xGF is eye-catching and doubly so given a solid record here and the way Consadole have been leaking goals, Sanfrecce look primed to take advantage.
2.25 units Sanfrecce Hiroshima -0.5 ball 2.36 asian line.
UEFA Nations League: Italy- Germany
I guess Italy will be up for this after the 2020 Euro champions failed to qualify for a second World Cup having only missed out on one previously. However, they have won just once in five starts, which includes a draw with Northern Ireland and loss on home soil to North Macedonia and they have conceded five goals in their last two which included a 3-0 defeat to Argentina in London just three days ago.
Germany have disappointed by their own sky high standards at the last two major championships, but don't do "three" in a row and you can already see the determination to put that right at the upcoming World Cup and of course the 2024 Euros which they host . Head coach Hansi Flick has been given the job until after that competition and charged with bringing some of that Bayern magic to the national team. Since his appointment Germany are unbeaten in nine starts, with eight wins and 34 goals, seven and 31 in the competitive games. "Just" the eight Bayern players in the squad and his former charges have responded big time with Muller, Sane and Gnabry scoring 12 for their former boss. Half of the starting 11 are likely to be Bayern players and provide an understanding we do not normally see at international level and it feels like Germany are on the way back and scoring freely and with Italy having been "found out", good value today with.........
2.25 units Germany to score "over" 1.5 goals 2.17 asian line.
Brazil : Serie A
Ceará- Coritiba
Ceara have won twice for us in the last week at odds of 2.30 + no reason to ditch them just yet, in midweek they edged their derby with Fortaleza 1-0 ahead of which I noted .......
These two Fortaleza rivals have played almost 600 (!) derby games between themselves which seems just crazy to European football followers. But only two with Fortaleza as host in the last three seasons in Serie A and both won by Ceara and by a combined 6-0.
They both made the Saturday notes, which are reproduced below in full, Ceara came from behind twice to draw 2-2 with Sao Paulo , but won BCs 3-1 and xG 1.7-0.9 and continued to impress. Fortaleza also came from behind to draw 1-1 , but lost pretty much every main statistical category and their goalkeeper was MOTM with 7 saves and that was a very disappointing performance and they need to step up a lot today.
I just don't see why Fortaleza should be so heavily favoured, or at all, beyond the fact their need is great and it's a bit early in the campaign for that. Visitors off level ball.
That was a 7th game unbeaten and 5th clean sheet in that sequence, their numbers looked very good against Fortaleza, but they did have a one man advantage for 70+ minutes, so perhaps we shouldn't give too much credit for that, but they are playing well and it is all about matters domestic for them right now and they would move into the top half with three points and will be greedily eyeing those up and they have a good run of upcoming fixtures.
Coritiba made the notes last month when they made the short trip to play a fellow Serie A newcomer in Avai......
These two clubs were promoted back to the top flight last season and with very similar records and both currently sit on 7 points and a 2-1-1 record through four starts, albeit with a very different goal difference , a respective 4-5 and 9-6. XGD suggests that the visitors are a little better than that and offensively, in what has become an increasingly low scoring league ( we have not seen an average of over 2.5 for the season since 2011 !), they look very interesting. Not just 9 goals, but 2.5 BC's created per game and also a little better defensively than six goals conceded suggests. They also did the double over Avai last season (2-1 here and 2-0 in the home tie) and also did it the last time the two were in the same Brasileirao league and by a combined 8-1.
The visitors trained early yesterday morning and then set off early for the very short (in Brazilian terms) trip to Florianopolis, with a large and very attack heavy squad, including all 11 starters from last week's 3-2 win over Fluminense, since when Coritiba have had a free 8 days to prepare solely for this game, add in the limited travel and it has been an opportunity not just to work on things , but to also rest up a little with some very busy weeks ahead, with the schedule in Brazilian football, simply relentless. To highlight that, Coritiba's head coach Gustavo Morinigo has been in charge for less than 16 months and has overseen 82 games already, just crazy !
In all competitions Coritiba have scored in their last 13 starts (9 wins), with 2+ goals in eight and three or more in five. When they won here last season they totally dominated the game after the break and should have won by 2-3-4 goals instead of 2-1 . Avai have given up an average of 2.22 xGA in their last three starts and surely more chances for the visitors today.
They lost that 2-1 and two subsequent away starts, 3-0 at Santos in the Copa do Brasil and 2-0 at Atletico Goianiense , the road struggles have started and they are a very long way from home tonight (almost 7,000 km round trip) and Fortaleza is some 12-13 degrees hotter than Curitiba and very different conditions than which they have got used to recently. They also left without ever present right back Matheus Alexandre and striker and top scorer (4 goals) Leo Gamalho and the veteran from man was also top scorer last season with 16 goals, RB always seems one of those problem positions and hard not to see these as two big absences.
2 units Ceara -1 ball 2.45 asian line.
Avai- Sao Paulo
We have already touched upon Avai ( see above) and their last four starts have all ended 2-1, that win over Coritiba and three defeats, including one at home to Juventude (their only win of the season), in fact, six of Avai's last seven starts have produced 3+ goals.
Sao Paulo have not played since that 2-2 draw with Ceara last weekend and will have welcomed the free seven days to prepare solely for this and that is a rare treat in Serie A. They could move top with the win, they are top scorers in Serie A and their games have averaged 3.0 goals which is 0.7 above the league average. Both teams have scored in their last seven starts (four on the road) and we can expect goals this evening. SP have used the extra time in training this week to do some very intense offensive work, especially on transition play and converting chances and crosses in the final third, they have averaged 2.05 xGF and 3.3 BC's in their last three away starts (all harder on paper than today) but scored just three goals total, so that makes sense. Avai will be without starting goalkeeper Douglas Friedrich, who was an off season addition and he has played every minute prior to his late dismissal last time out, his back up has seen very little action since 2019 .
2 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.49 asian line.
Good luck !
Brazil Serie A : (written May 28th)
Sao Paulo- Ceara
Ceara finished above Sao Paulo last season and were still in Copa Libertadores contention on the final day of the season, which was a big achievement for them. They struggled in their first two years back in the top flight, but have improved greatly in the last two campaigns and feel very much at home now amongst the elite. SP are the much bigger club of course and have started well with a 3-3-1 record, a perfect 3-0-0 at home, but they are a team I struggle to warm to and I have spoken often in recent campaigns about their issues in front of goal, they scored just 39 in 2019 despite finishing 6th (the top five teams averaged 64.4 goals !) and 31 last season, with only the bottom two managing fewer . They have 12 goals already this time around , so might have addressed the problem, but I am still a little sceptical, on loan striker Jonathan Calleri has 7 goals to his name , but let's see what happens when his output starts to dry up.
Ceara fell out of the blocks and lost three of their first four starts, but put a lot of effort into their Copa Sudamericana campaign ( even that is a big deal for them) and finished the group stage the #1 ranked team with a perfect 6/6 wins (only team to do so) and 17-1 goal difference. They have drawn with Santos and Flamengo in their last two starts and can forget about the international competition now until the end of next month. They have drawn on their last two visits to SP and have turned into draw specialists, with 10/17 on the road last season ending all square. That cost them a much higher finish, early in the season I wrote ..............
I spoke recently about Ceará's improved away form last season, when they collected 17 more points on the road than they did in 2019 and xP suggested they should have finished three places higher than 11th in 2020 and this is a team with potential and no reason why they should not be eyeing up a top 10 finish.
They were actually 11th, out of 10th only on goal difference and just 8 points adrift of 4th, when we see that they drew 17 games and xGF says they should have scored 13 goals more, it is easy to see that they might have bridged that gap and probably were top 8 ability wise.
2 units Ceara +0.5 ball 2.35 asian line.
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