Serie A betting preview ............
Feb 20, 2022
Serie A : Internazionale- Sassuolo
Inter played well enough for much of the game but eventually lost 2-0 to Liverpool in midweek ahead of which my notes went a lot like this .........
Inter have won just six of their last 22 Champions League games, they have beaten just one "elite" team in that sequence, taking only a single point/draw from the other nine losing to Dortmund , Barcelona (three times ) and Real Madrid (4) , it is an awful record for such a famous club. They are in a title race with Milan and Napoli and have dropped points to both in the last 11 days and I doubt they are strong enough to do battle on 2-3 fronts for the rest of this campaign and just don't have the CL experience of teams like Liverpool. The Reds have found some form with six straight wins, have their stars back from AFCON and are also a perfect 6/6 in the competition this season, scoring 2+ in each, including 10 on the road against Porto, Atletico Madrid and here in the San Siro versus AC Milan, so no trip into the unknown for them this evening and very familiar surroundings from that game which was played just two months ago. They also had a 5-0 win last season, just "down the road" in Bergamo over Atalanta and motivated by Manchester City's huge win last night , they will want to follow suit with their biggest rival (in terms of winning titles) and try to largely put this tie to bed this evening. Inter are without star midfielder Nicolo Barella due to suspension and that is a huge loss, with likely replacement Arturo Vidal, soon to be 35 yo with just 428 minutes of Serie A action to his name this season and having played the full 90 only once since November 2020.
It is a quick turnaround for them and the pressure is starting to build. We know that Sassuolo love these fixtures and thrive on the road to top teams, where they revel in the extra space and fear no one. Sassuolo have scored in 36 of 40 away starts, with 2+ goals in an incredible 23 of those , that is totally insane for a non big six team ! The visitors have also scored 2+ in 7/10 road games, 20 total and are without a clean sheet in 16. Included in that sequence are wins at Juventus and Milan (twice), notes on those two trips to the San Siro are below the "good luck" sign off and they won the first 2-1 the second in November 3-1 and they produced some 15 points profit. Inter are a little hard hit by injury and suspension, they do get Barella ( see above) back, but now CB Alessandro Bastoni and DM Marcelo Brozovic are banned, which really weakens their defensive spine.
Sassuolo have scored in 5/6 visits to this stadium to play Inter, with 2+ in three and when Milan are the host scored in 8/10, 2+ in five and clearly relish trips to the San Siro.
1.5 units Sassuolo +0.5 ball 3.67 asian line.
2 units Sassuolo to score "over" 1.5 goals 3.50-3.75 asian line.
Good luck !
Italy Serie A: AC Milan - Sassuolo (written November 28th)
Sassuolo are "our" team and I find it very hard to get away from them today at odds north of 5.50 as I start to type ( Friday), that goes double as we backed them in this very fixture back in April (last season) at similar odds and they won 2-1, those notes are reproduced at the foot of this email. I am not sure I have to add too much more, but last week I opposed Milan away to Fiorentina when I noted ............
Milan's numbers do not fully tally with those of a top team and have nosedived over the last five games, through which Fiorentina are a net +9 BC's and +38 ITB. The hosts have tightened up defensively (conceding just twice in 5 starts, with an xGA of 2.55 ....0.51 pg) and with Milan having gone seven road games without a clean sheet (1.57 pg average) , scoring once might well be enough for the home side to take something from this and they are well priced to do so.
Milan lost and conceded four goals. Sassuolo drew 2-2 with Cagliari the next day when I wrote ...........
Sassuolo are our absolute favourites in Serie A , we have done well with them for so long and they look back to their old free scoring (and conceding) ways and are a joy and very entertaining to watch. They have scored and conceded in their last six starts, games which have averaged 3.67 goals and included a win away to Juventus ahead of which I wrote ...........
Juventus are unbeaten in their last five competitive starts, but have, unusually, scored exactly one goal in each of those games and they have won just 1/13 this season by more than a single goal. Their last three game ITB numbers are 18-23 in the league and 11-18 in their last two in the Champions League and despite the upturn in results, the Old Lady is still largely struggling.
Sassuolo have lost by the same 2-1 scoreline to each of Roma and Atalanta (away) and Inter (home) and no reason to feel that Juve are better than any of that trio currently. The visitors numbers are on the rise now and they are a noteworthy 20-10 on target and 11-4 BC's across their last three starts. The last four h2h games have been free scoring with 4+ goals in each, with 7 for Sassuolo and 11 for Juventus and this is normally a game where we should expect goals , but the host's recent results or numbers hardly scream that is likely. Sassuolo have scored in 17/18 away starts, with multiple goals ( 2+) in 16/30 and we almost always see them at their best on the road.
I went with them +1 goal and avoided the huge odds on the away win, which is hard to credit given how we have bet them over the last 18 months or so, but that milk has already been spilt so no point in crying now ! They are better on the road and can beat or lose to anyone as host, witness a 2-1 loss here in Sassuolo to Empoli on the back of the win in Turin !
That worked out ok for us (small profit) and they again scored twice, but it should have been more and they were a mighty fine 6-1 for BC's. Now they are back on the road and overpriced !
1.5 units Sassuolo level ball 4.63 asian line.
1.75 units Sassuolo to score "over" 1.5 goals 3.0-3.25 general quote.
AC Milan- Sassuolo ( written April 21st)
Milan are guaranteed to stay in second place with the win, hard to know what they think about how this season has played out, they looked sure to be involved in a title race at this stage and they were still top of the table in February. The last team they would have wanted to be champions elect was Inter, but a return to Champions League football as seems likely will be most welcome and second place would give them a great platform to build from next season. Probably time to put regrets to one side now and focus on the positives and after a bit of a blip, they do seem to have done that with 10 points from their last four starts. However, they seem increasingly vulnerable defensively at the back and they have kept just a single clean sheet in all starts and that was away to Verona, who's home day woes we discussed yesterday.
You should all know where we stand with Sassuolo but perhaps the best and easiest place to start with them was for their last trip to the San Siro which was just 14 days ago when they faced Internazionale ............
It feels like a long time again now, but early post lockdown we picked up on some fantastic stats for Sassuolo and were able to bet them week after week at big odds and milked their offensive prowess to a remarkable extent and a lot of profit. However, all good things have to end some time and either their form tailed off, or the opposition worked them out and their levels dropped a little around the turn of the year and ahead of a trip to Bergamo to play Atalanta in the first round of 2021 games I wrote .........
This was the fixture last season which started all the Sassuolo hoop la and made them newsletter darlings for so long. They caught my eye by creating 7 BC's on the road to Atalanta, whose own numbers were just sensational at the time and what happened after is well documented. All journeys have to begin with a single step and that heralded the start of a wonderful run and as you can see above, they have played almost as well as Juventus subsequently and did so playing thrilling offensive football. But all journeys have to end sometime too and I wrote recently about teams possibly finding Sassuolo out now and when I updated the Serie A stats, their ITB stats shocked me. They have tumbled to bottom 6 level after posting 27-70 for the last 5 starts, that is about as bad as it gets. 27 created is the third lowest, below only Crotone and Genoa and 70 conceded is 14 more than anyone else and 39 more than any of the other top 7 teams, 52 more than Atalanta ! It means the home side are a net +68 over Sassuolo in the last five games alone and that is a scary number.
Atalanta have produced Serie A best numbers over the last three seasons combined and have also thrilled us with their adventurous play, not only domestically, but in Europe where they have now become a serious player. Those Serie A numbers had dropped a little this season, but have started to pick up again now that they can concentrate on the league for the time being. Despite giving up those 7 BC's in this fixture back in June, they still won the game 4-1 and have taken the last four h2h games as hosts with Sassuolo scoring in each, in fact, the visitors have scored on their last 8 visits to Bergamo. How about more of the same, home win and BTS.
Even when they are not playing well Sassuolo seem to favour us and that played out well with Atalanta winning 5-1 .
The following weekend Sassuolo travelled to Turin to play Juventus and I updated with ...... they (Sassuolo) did win in midweek , but 2-1 at home to lowly Genoa and it was quite hard work. They remain in sixth and are decent and pose a goal threat, but not enough right now to stop the Old Lady from winning. 3-1 feels about right.
Final score was indeed 3-1 to Juve and Sassuolo are the team who have continued to give to us and with both hands !
They have not featured much in my notes subsequently, but they remain top 9, seem certain to finish 8th or 9th and appear to have refound that goal touch. Their last 10 starts have totalled 35 goals and includes a 2-2 draw with Roma and 3-3 stalemate with Napoli, scoring 2+ goals in 5 of their last 7 , they do not fear anyone and have no pressure on them in the league, so no reason why they will enter the San Siro feeling they have anything to lose and they can enjoy the occasion. They drew 3-3 here last season post lockdown and to be honest, something similar would not surprise me at all .
That finished 2-1 , but Sassuolo had 71% possession, won more total attempts, on target and ITB and completed an incredible 95% of a whopping 848 passes. I don't think you will ever see better passing numbers in Serie A and to put those up away to the team about to be crowned champions has to be very worthy of note .
Sassuolo have scored in 13/14 starts (which mirrors the ACM numbers) and in 10/11 on the road, they are pretty much guaranteed 8th placed now having won both starts since the Inter game as they are 7 points above Verona with this game in hand, yet 9 adrift of Roma. We can view that two ways, one that they have relatively little to play for, or secondly, that they are playing really well and are under absolutely no pressure .
Sometimes we have to just bite the bullet and be brave , Sassuolo have collected almost as many road points (24) as Milan have at home ( 26) and the hosts have also scored the fewest home goals amongst the top 7 and won just 3 times in 2021.
Milan to win and both teams to score is a tempting 3.10 given that Milan always concede , Sassuolo always score and the hosts' need is great, but on this occasion I see the best value with ....................
2 units Sassuolo level ball 3.82 asian line.
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