Championship betting preview..............
Feb 08, 2022
Last five Barnsley previews have seen one "push" (stakes returned) and winners at odds of 2.36 , 2.45, 3.01 and 3.60 !
I realise that many of these old grounds are no longer fit for purpose and I have no fond memories of visiting Kenilworth Road (pictured), but I still feel sad that they are almost extinct and that a club in the heart of the community is becoming a thing of the past.
Championship: Luton Town -Barnsley
I opposed Barnsley for each of their last three league starts and ahead of a home game with fellow strugglers Cardiff City last midweek wrote ..........
Cardiff got a fine 2-1 win over an inform Nottingham Forest on Sunday and created more and better chances from just 32% possession, which augurs well for their chances on the road this evening.
Barnsley featured heavily last week with a trip to Forest and home game with Bournemouth all making the newsletter .........
Barnsley's fall from grace has been as dramatic as any I can recall in the Championship and after averaging just shy of 2 points per game from their final 32 starts last season to finish 5th, they are currently bottom of the table, 8 points from safety having collected 0.54 points pg from 26 outings. In midweek, ahead of a trip to Nottingham Forest I wrote the following and highlighted just how little they had been creating................
Forest have taken 12 points from their last six games and faced opposition with an average league placing of 16.0.
The hosts have done us a lot of favours in recent weeks and notes on their win away to Millwall from 10 days ago are reproduced at the foot of this email, they needed a very later winner at the New Den to take the points, but it was fully deserved in a game where they won xG 3.77- 1.46 which is an enormous advantage on the road in this toughest of leagues. They then won their deby with Derby 2-1 on Saturday , they had 9 BC's across the two games and despite scoring just three goals could hardly have been more impressive. They had a 2.0 xGF against County who had given up just an xGA of 0.65, 0.79, 0.28, 1.16, 0.24 in their previous five starts, four of which were versus top half of the table opposition.
Barnsley have taken 3 points from their last six games and faced opposition with an average league placing of 14.2. The Tykes have not created a single BC in their last three starts (0.8 xGF combined) and only two total in their last seven outings ( max xG of 0.85).
They lost 3-0 and guess what ? Zero BC's , 2 attempts ITB and an xGF of 0.5 , right now it is impossible to see how they can win any game of football with so little end product. Bournemouth have lost their way a little and both of their last two starts , but it is difficult to see how, as they were a combined 6-0 for BC's , a net +2.2 xG and +14 ITB and we have to view that as bad luck and a blip. They could move back into the automatic promotion spot with a win and would see anything less today as points dropped. They won the reverse fixture 3-0 (5-0 BC, 11-0 ITB, 8-0 on target !) and the Tykes were in better shape at the time ! On top of everything else, Barnsley are hard hit by injury and COVID, they had a bench full of Academy players in midweek and if anything they are in worse shape today. The Cherries had a free midweek to rest up and prepare and really ought to win this with a large degree of comfort.
They lost 1-0 to the Cherries and whilst they created a little more offensively themselves, gave up 3 BC's, 12 ITB attempts and 600 passes (whilst only completing 49% of their own, which is a super low total). Some of those numbers are too bad to be true (but they are ) and what team completes fewer than 1 in 2 passes ? Cardiff looked good on Sunday and after allowing an unhappy player to leave, the additions of Uche Ikpeazu and Jordan Hugill look good business and the whole team had a better shape with head coach Steve Morison saying that "everyone can see the direction we are heading in now" and added that he was very happy with the makeup of the starting 11 for the first time. Hugill scored on his debut after 5 minutes and should really have scored another (denied by an incredible point blank save), it looks like he could thrive back at a club where he is wanted and will start and City should start to climb the table now. XP places the Bluebirds 10th, 18 goals and 14 points better off than the actual table and they have a lot of potential improvement open to them in the final four months of the season.
City won 1-0, it was again a little better from Barnsley, but it is all relative and they were and are, coming from a very low starting point and at the end of the day (or 90+ minutes) they managed only 1 attempt on target and an xGF of sub 0.90 for the 9th time in ten starts.
Luton Town are one of "our" teams and ahead of a home game with Bristol City at the end of last month I noted ............
Town have taken 10 points from their last six games and faced opposition with an average league placing of 14.0. The Hatters recent numbers are very good , at least when they keep 11 men on the pitch (unlike the weekend loss away to Sheffield United) .
City have taken 7 points from their last six games and faced opposition with an average league placing of 13.6. I have spent the last 30 months bad mouthing them, or at least highlighting their poor numbers which have been bottom 4-5 throughout the three campaigns, despite the Robins spending much of that period in or around the playoff zone.
Their last three games have seen them (somehow) score 8 goals from an xGF of 3.0 and just 2 BC's and whilst averaging 7 ITB attempts per game and that is unlikely to continue and there should be some levelling off.
The hosts haven't quite kicked on as I hoped after writing in October............
This is Town's third season back in the second tier, the first was always going to be a struggle as they had been in the National League as recently as 2014, League 2 in 2018 and reached the Championship on the back of a second consecutive promotion. The return of head coach Nathan Jones in May 2020 was crucial and he guided them from almost certain relegation to survival and a 19th place finish. Last season was a breeze in comparison and they finished 12th (played at top 10 level) collecting 62 points , 11 more than in 19/20. They actually picked up 31 points in the second half of that first Championship campaign and 30 points in the first 23 games last season and 31 in the second half, so real consistency through one and a half seasons and that level of performance (circa 61-62 points) should always be good for top half or very close in the second tier.
Town are quite ambitious , have long term plans to build a new stadium and were one of very few Championship clubs to be very active in the transfer market this last transfer window, which has created plenty of competition for starting places. They are currently 13th with 14 points, but are the only team in the bottom half of the table with a positive goal difference which is usually a good sign and they are 4th with 23 pts in the xP table. They should have scored four goals more and conceded 3-4 fewer . They pose a big goal threat and have recorded an xGF of at least 2.22 in six of their 11 starts including in three games against top 9 teams.
Back at the start of that first Championship season I wrote about that rapid rise and how they were going to be handicapped with the loss of two key players and the aforementioned Jones and their preferred formation .........
Luton Town were playing non league football in 2018 and League 2 level as recently as 2018, they were League 1 champions last season and they and Barnsley were stats wise, head and shoulders above the other teams in the third tier. They had two full/wing backs in James Justin and Jack Stacey who were effectively PL quality in League 1, both have now moved to the Premier league and are irreplaceable. They will stick with the diamond favoured and introduced by Nathan Jones, now of Stoke City and interim boss Mick Harford did a wonderful job to just carry on that work and run with it. Town were a VERY good League 1 team, but it is a big step up and they have come a long way quickly, Town have lost their two stand out players and have a new boss in Graeme Jones who is a very well respected coach, but we have no idea if he is a head coach and not all make the step up.
In this narrow diamond, the full backs are key, the two replacements to Justin and Stacey were always likely to be lower quality and they are ! Most of the rest of this squad have little experience of this level and such rapid promotions usually catch up with teams eventually.
They really struggled in that debut campaign at this level, but upon his return, Nathan Jones made the defense his priority and adopted a less suicidal high press when out of possession and in this window he opted for younger, more athletic additions. I understand that NJ chased left wing back Amari'i Bell for 12 months before his summer signing and he and James Bree are the new Justin and Stacey and come close to completing the system NJ wants to play. Forward Elijah Adebayo was very well thought of as a teenager and came through the Fulham youth system which has developed a lot of talented footballers and he has had to work hard over the last 4-5 years to get back into the professional game, still only 23 yo , he already has five goals this season and Town pick up better than 1.54 points pg when the giant but mobile striker plays. That equates to 71 points across 46 games ,which is circa top 7 level. The squad looks quite deep, is better than results so far indicate and we should keep on the right side of them, they are circa 2.10-2.25 to finish top 12 (top half) and that feels too big and is likely to happen, however, there is also up to 11.0 for top six which is more speculative , but also more rewarding and the Hatters could go close.
They are now 13th, 9 points off top six with games in hand on many teams above them, they should be good for top half, are starting to find some form again and 3-4 wins in the Championship can always take you a long way, the reverse fixture finished 1-1 , but Town were a net +2.0 xG in that game (4-0 BC's) and are just the better team . Four of Town's next five starts are versus bottom 9 teams and they will be looking to put a run together now.
They won that 2-1 , then drew with top 3 side Blackburn Rovers and won away to Swansea City, they sit in 9th place this morning , three points off sixth spot with games in hand on several of the teams above them. They are quoted at odds of 1.25 (max) for a top half finish and circa 4.50 to reach the top 6 , so good value if you went with either and they still have to play three bottom 7 teams this month.
But first this game and I don't feel we have any option but to stick with the Hatters as Barnsley are creating so little and Luton are in good form and xP places them 5 points better, so there is probably improvement still to come.
2 units Luton Town -1 ball 2.13 asian line.
Good luck !
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