Yesterday I told you that I had previewed three games for subscribers and put up two bets at odds of 5.50 +, both of those high odds suggestions were on the following game and one was a winner, but I really suggest you read the full preview and just look at what we are trying to do at clubgowi. We have already highlighted one big improver in Brazil this season and won 21 units on them inside 8 days ( max bet 2 units) and the notes below are another example of that, we are looking for teams that bettors/oddsmakers are under or overestimating . It doesn't have to always be right (that is impossible) and maybe Chapecoense will not pick up, but we have already used it to our advanatge and when we ARE right we will always make far more money than we are are wrong ! It is ok to admit you were wrong and stop betting a particular team, but when right, you can bet any number of winners.
Fortaleza won 3-2 .............
Brazil: Serie A :Fortaleza - Chapecoense
Fortaleza were a very early season feature of the Brazilian notes and ahead of a home game with Internacional my notes included ......
Fortaleza finished last season 16th with 41 points and a lack of goals cost them dearly, however, they should have scored 14 more and actually did score 16 more in 2019, so a higher scoring 2021 looks likely and nothing in that win at CAM to put me off that thinking as their numbers were all pretty good. Inter looked likely title winners for much of 2020 and only needed a draw or better on final day, they actually led before losing, so there is no knowing what scars that might have left. They lost 1-0 here last season and I think the odds are too big on another "upset".
After that game and ahead of a 1-0 win over Sport Recife I updated with .........
Fortunately we got that "upset" with Fortaleza, but hard to continue to call it such, as they won 5-1 and that was hardly flattering , as they were 6-1 for BC's and dominated all statistical categories. They followed up with a 3-0 win at Ceara in the Copa in midweek and Fortaleza are just flying at the moment and scoring for fun with 11 goals in 4 starts, 31 in 9 if we also include Cearense fixtures, which I "never " do . Excitings times for all associated with the club, Ceara are their biggest rival so the midweek win was massive and they face another regional team today and will doubtless want to put another to the sword and I think we have to stick with the home side while they are in such sensational form and with confidence levels through the roof.
They have played four games subsequently, three draws and a 2-1 loss away to Flamengo , no shame in that defeat, but the goals have dried up a little, albeit from a very high point . Having said that, they are coming off a 0-0 draw at Gremio, where both teams missed a penalty, the home side played the final 37 minutes with ten men, but that only detracts so much from the fact that Fortaleza "won" BC's 8-2 ! That is an enormous number anywhere, but on the road in Brazil it is very rarely seen and is worthy of note, but 7 did come after the break. However, his is a team with a far bigger goal threat than last season and what we have seen in recent outings.
Chapecoense were promoted last season as champions after just one year in the Serie B wilderness, most neutrals were thrilled with that and have a soft spot for the club after the horrendous Medellín plane crash in 2016. They took just one point and conceded six goals in their first three games this season and a record of 0-4-3 implies that they are still struggling, but I am going to take a different slant on things and say they are on the up, have now come to terms with the higher level and are a team we should be looking closely at and keeping on our side.
Those four draws have all come in their last five starts and three came on the road to very strong opposition, São Paulo, CAM and Atletico Paranaense, each was a score draw and no rearguard standoff as Chape "won" BC's in each and by a total 8-3. They have scored five road goals, it should be six and xGF suggests they should have scored an additional four this season, placing them 8th and given the degree of difficulty of opposition, we have to take note. Remember, it is not all about today, but what we can learn for the future, every team we discuss has a limitless number of upcoming games, but only one on the day in question.
This is another tough away game for them and they are a long way from home (3,700 km) and we know that Fortaleza are decent, but the hosts should also have conceded four more goals (xGA) and my feeling is that Chapecoense are not only better than results suggest, but on the up.
2 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.29 asian line .
1 unit Chapecoense to score "over" 1.5 goals 5.50-6.0 general quote.
0.75 units Chapecoense to win (-0.5 ball) @ 7.21 asian line .
Good luck !
