Big chances and ITB stats for J-League ..............

Aug 01, 2020

Japan : J-League 1:

Kawasaki Frontale +59 (92-33) 25-4

Gamba Osaka +1 ( 59-58) 11-9

*Nagoya Grampus -2 (39-41) 10-4

FC Tokyo -10 (48-58) 17-14

Cerezo Osaka +7 (55-48) 5-7

Urawa Reds -8 (48-56) 13-17

Kashiwa Reysol -7 (60-67) 24-18

Consadole Sapporo -4 (64-68) 19-12

Vissel Kobe +5 (51-46) 12-12

*Sanfrecce Hiroshima +10 (51-41) 13-10

Yokohama F.Marinos +27 (69-42) 19-15

Oita Trinita -7 (42-49) 10-10

Vegalta Sendai -3 (66-69) 10-21

Yokohama FC -40 (39-79) 7-24

Sagan Tosu -18 (36-54) 5-14

Shonan Bellmare -22 (43-65) 10-16

Shimizu S-Pulse -4 (60-64) 13-13

Kashima Antlers +16 (69-53) 13-16

League table order.

* Nagoya and Sanfrecce have both played six games, everyone else seven.

First column is each team's net ITB total, after that in parentheses are the number of ITB chances created and conceded, the third number in blue relates to the number of BC's (big chances) that each team has attempted/given up. For example, Frontale have created 92 chances from inside the box , conceded 33, giving them a net +59 and they have attempted 25, given up just 4 BC's , which are all extraordinary numbers through just seven games, compare them to every other team, the truth is they do not compare !

The only seven teams on positive ITB numbers are .......

Frontale +59

Marinos +27

Antlers +16

Sanfrecce +10

Cerezo +7

Vissel +5

Gamba +1

Some of them are marginal + numbers, but the seven teams finished a respective 4th / 1st/ 3rd/ 6th/8th/ 5th/ 7th last season, Kobe beat Antlers in the Emperor's Cup final and Frontale won the League Cup and despite a couple of these teams struggling at present, they still feel amongst the elite eight teams and Marinos and Antlers should soon be climbing the table.

As always, I will say that these numbers are only ever a starting point and what we are really looking for are teams who have over achieved in relation to these numbers and vice versa, also, for when these swing and teams find a way to suddenly start creating, or to give up more chances , with the hope that they have worked something out, or that the opposition have done so.

Glossary:

ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .

XG= expected goals.

XGF= expected goals for.

XGA = expected goals against.

XGD = expected goal difference.

XP = expected points.

BC = big scoring chance.

I like expected goals/points, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because there are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But I also think they highlight the flow of the games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.

Good luck !