Serie A betting tip: Brescia -Genoa
Jun 27, 2020
Italy Serie A: Brescia- Genoa
Brescia are coming off a 1-1 draw at Fiorentina where we went with both to score and ahead of which I wrote ...............
Fiorentina have a net seasonal +185 ITB advantage over Brescia and are +45 for the last eight games, through which the basement club have created very few attempts ITB on goal. Brescia are nine points from safety and have won just four times all season (losing 18) and it is tough to make a case for them putting in a survival bid, or even being good enough to do so. All they have is a need and they will have to gamble and look for maximum points in all games, but nothing in any of their statistics to indicate that they are capable of going toe toe toe with anyone or that they can keep things tight and try to steal a goal on the break. Fiorentina are almost certainly the best bottom half of the table team, ranking 9th for xP and 8th for ITB, they are not yet safe from relegation fears, but a couple of wins should ensure their safety and after that I suspect they will look at a top ten finish, having been top 8 in six of the last seven seasons. On paper it is easy to see one of those wins coming today .
Brescia have lost 12/13 starts against teams with positive ITB numbers , but have scored in 8 of those and 9 of those defeats came by exactly one goal. Now things get further complicated, Fiorentina have conceded in 21 of 28 home games and their last three wins have all been by a single goal, but most incredible of all,is that in that sequence (28 games) they have actually won just four a 14.29% win rate and do we really want to get involved in a team winning 1/7 as host across a 20 month period regardless of quality of opposition ? 50% (14) of those games have been draws.
The other bottom six teams all lost their restart games so whilst a point is not a great help, it has taken them a little closer to a number of teams. Genoa are one of those and they are coming off a frightful 4-1 home loss to Parma, with the game over inside 30 minutes or so, by which time they were two down. That result leaves the visitors just one spot above the drop zone and level on points with Lecce who lost to Juve last night.
I am expecting a big reaction from Genoa they have a great record against Brescia who look doomed and have won just once at home all season, a point has value for Genoa, but with games against Juve, Napoli and a potential relegation six pointer away to Udinese up next, surely they will want the buffer and comfort that all three points would bring today. They have also been FAR happier on the road in recent starts, scoring 7 goals total, at least two in each away to Milan (win), Bologna (win) and Atalanta (draw). That is a fantastic sequence of results with the trio all posting good xP and ITB numbers.
2 units Genoa -0.5 ball 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket.
Stay safe and good luck !
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