Championship: all the stats you need ahead of restart matchday 2 ............

football betting tips -

 

Pd = games played.

Pts = points

GD = goal difference

XP=  expected points

XGD = expected goal difference

ITB = inside the box net numbers for the season

L9 = inside the box totals (created-conceded) for the last 9 games, which covers the last 8 pre lockdown and the single restart fixture.

The first three columns are "real" in terms of points won and goals scored/conceded, but league tables do sometimes "lie" even after 38 games and the last four columns are more interesting as they show performance levels and who has been over/underachieving in front of goal at both ends of the pitch.

The numbers which are shown in blue type indicate teams who are playing above the level of their current league position, those in red for teams who have outperformed their stats and we would normally expect results for the former to improve and the latter to fall away. Double or treble (or more) blue or red numbers are especially noteworthy.

I will finish with my normal observation that : I like expected goals/points, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because they are more numeric and the swings quicker to pick up on. But I also think they highlight the flow of games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.

Bristol City have an unwanted claim to fame as the first team to ever record quintuple red type numbers .

Stoke and Barnsley have quadruple blue type ,it is very difficult for any of the top teams to record multiple blue but Leeds United who look head and shoulders the best team and Brentford (clearly #2) have managed it . Fulham and Forest seem very likely to make the playoffs, but the former seem some way below the level they played at in their last two Championship campaigns and Forest's numbers are way below what we would expect of a normal playoff team. However, apart from those three teams recording elite numbers, this looks a very weak second tier. That is something I have touched upon all season and this is, in terms of overall quality, a substandard Championship.

The eight teams directly below Brentford all of whom still harbour postseason dreams, are seen as between 23-52 points (xP) inferior to the Bees and a further 16 off the level that Leeds have played at, to illustrate that point/feeling.

 

Stay safe and good luck !

 

 

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