Pd = games played.
Pts = points
GD = goal difference
XP= expected points
XGD = expected goal difference
ITB = inside the box net numbers for the season
L8 = inside the box totals (created-conceded) for the last 8 games.
At present I am undecided whether to go with 8 or 6 games for the last column, but it probably doesn't overly matter as I will be looking for changing trends over shorter periods than that in any case and highlighting those within the matchday previews.
I am also considering adding an additional column or two relating to individual team ratings.
Anyway, back to the table above. The first three columns are "real" in terms of points won and goals scored/conceded, but league tables do sometimes "lie" even after 28+ games and the last four columns are more interesting, as they show performance levels and who has been over/underachieving in front of goal at both ends of the pitch.
The numbers which are shown in blue type indicate teams who are playing above the level of their current league position or in relation to their "real" numbers, those in red for teams who have outperformed their stats and we would normally expect results for the former to improve and the latter to fall away. Double or treble (or more) blue or red numbers are especially noteworthy.
I will finish with my normal observation that : I like expected goals/points, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because there are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But I also think they highlight the flow of games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.
Sociedad's numbers remain very low for a top 5 team .
Last time I updated the ITB stats I noted........"Betis look on the rise" and whilst they have only won twice subsequently, they were a win over Real Madrid and hammering of Sociedad and their numbers continue on the up, they are + 36 for their last 14 starts, which equates to third best in La Liga if extended over 29 games and is a very sharp turnaround after going -45 for their first 13 outings. They, along with Bilbao and Osasuna look the more likely to kick on from this stage than Granada and Valencia immediately above the trio in the league table.
Back in January I wrote that .........."Levante and Valencia have bottom four numbers for the season". Now they are bottom two and Los Che are a net -53 for their last 14 games (creating the fewest attempts ITB in La Liga) and Levante have allowed double digit (10+) ITB attempts against them in 18 starts to date and their 101 chances given up since New Year are over 11 per game and 26 more than the next worst team.... who are Valencia ! Awful figures and each should have a very big question mark against their name.
Eibar, Espanyol and Leganes' overall numbers remain good in relation to league position and the 63-49 recorded by the latter since New Year is especially noteworthy, second only defensively to Getafe and Athetico two teams who make Ebenezer Scrooge seem generous and tenth best offensively (most amongst the bottom 8).
Levante, Mallorca and Valladolid make the bottom four in both ITB and XP lists.
Levante have a beyond awful average XG of -0.65 per game.
Looking at the first/second half tables, goals and splits:
Osasuna are ranked #20 before the break when they have lost 12 times and picked up just 21 points, but they are #4 over the second 45 minutes, losing just 5 times and doubling their number of points (42).
Getafe have conceded just 12 second half goals and remain, as we have discussed multiple times, an incredibly difficult team to play and score against and have been for the best part of two seasons.
Sevilla are a hugely impressive 8-5-1 on the road in the first half putting them head and shoulders above the rest of La Liga.
Alaves have a -11 first half goal difference, which rises to +3 after the break which is when they have scored 23 of their 29 goals (79.3%).
As you might expect, the top two are very good late in halves and Real have an 11-1 goal difference between the 31st-45th minute, when Barce are 17-3 and I have been finding good value with both in First Half Betting as we approach the half hour mark, it is always worth looking when you can bet elite teams, at premium quotes, when they tend to perform at their best !
Finally, the average number of goals in a La Liga game this season is 2.53, Osasuna games are running at 2.67 which is not very interesting, but once they have goals in their games they tend to let the floodgates open and 33% of their games have produced 4 or more ( league average 22.2%) and 19% five + (league average 11.5%) ,second only to Barcelona game numbers.
Good Luck.
