La Liga round up ..................

Mar 23, 2020

La Liga: Through 27 rounds, teams in league table order.

ITB:

Barcelona +71 (44-42) 89-51

Real Madrid +105 (53-31) 80-53

Sevilla + 104 (55-21) 71-50

Getafe + 48 (28-27) 66-48

Real Sociedad + 8 (45-43) 65-61

Atletico + 73 (59-41) 57-47

Valencia -85 (34-60) 48-75

Villarreal +18 (53-54) 68-68

Granada -39 (34-43) 51-68

Bilbao +19 (27-38) 69-56

Osasuna +29 (44-45) 77-61

Betis -9 (52-35) 70-51

Levante -118 (36-41) 56-101

Alaves -32 (28-35) 56-66

Valladolid -75 (21-32) 53-69

Eibar -9 (39-34) 49-70

Celta -38 (42-33) 48-65

Mallorca -64 (34-64) 59-67

Leganes +9 (24-40) 63-49

Espanyol -15 (34-35) 54-73

Net ITB numbers for the season directly alongside each team, figures after that in parentheses are ITB numbers (created-conceded) for the five games leading up to Christmas and those in blue the same for the nine rounds played since New Year.

Sociedad's numbers remain very low for a top 5 team .

Last time I updated the ITB stats I noted........"Betis look on the rise" and whilst they have only won twice subsequently, they were a win over Real Madrid and hammering of Sociedad and their numbers continue on the up, they are + 36 for their last 14 starts, which equates to third best in La Liga if extended over 29 games and is a very sharp turnaround after going -45 for their first 13 outings. They, along with Bilbao and Osasuna look the more likely to kick on from this stage than Granada and Valencia immediately above the trio in the league table.

Back in January I wrote that .........."Levante and Valencia have bottom four numbers for the season". Now they are bottom two and Los Che are a net -53 for their last 14 games (creating the fewest attempts ITB in La Liga) and Levante have allowed double digit (10+) ITB attempts against them in 18 starts to date and their 101 chances given up since New Year are over 11 per game and 26 more than the next worst team.... who are Valencia ! Awful figures and each should have a very big question mark against their name.

Eibar, Espanyol and Leganes' overall numbers remain good in relation to league position and the 63-49 recorded by the latter since New Year is especially noteworthy, second only defensively to Getafe and Athetico two teams who make Ebenezer Scrooge seem generous and tenth best offensively (most amongst the bottom 8).

XP sees the table as ...........

Real Madrid 54 points

Barcelona 52

Atletico 51

Sevilla 47

Villarreal 47

Sociedad 44

Getafe 42

Osasuna 38

Granada 36

Bilbao 34

Betis 34

Valencia 34

Celta 33

Leganes 32

Alaves 32

Espanyol 30

Eibar 29

Levante 27

Mallorca 26

Valladolid 26

Levante, Mallorca and Valladolid make the bottom four in both lists.

Levante have a beyond awful average XG of -0.65 per game.

Looking at the first/second half tables, goals and splits:

Osasuna are ranked #20 before the break when they have lost 12 times and picked up just 21 points, but they are #4 over the second 45 minutes, losing just 5 times and doubling their number of points (42).

Getafe have conceded just 12 second half goals and remain, as we have discussed multiple times, an incredibly difficult team to play and score against and have been for the best part of two seasons.

Sevilla are a hugely impressive 8-5-1 on the road in the first half putting them head and shoulders above the rest of La Liga.

Alaves have a -11 first half goal difference, which rises to +3 after the break which is when they have scored 23 of their 29 goals (79.3%).

As you might expect, the top two are very good late in halves and Real have an 11-1 goal difference between the 31st-45th minute, when Barce are 17-3 and I have been finding good value with both in First Half Betting as we approach the half hour mark, it is always worth looking when you can bet elite teams, at premium quotes, when they tend to perform at their best !

Finally, the average number of goals in a La Liga game this season is 2.53, Osasuna games are running at 2.67 which is not very interesting, but once they have goals in their games they tend to let the floodgates open and 33% of their games have produced 4 or more ( league average 22.2%) and 19% five + (league average 11.5%) ,second only to Barcelona game numbers.

Glossary:

ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .

XG= expected goals.

XGF= expected goals for.

XGA = expected goals against.

XGD = expected goal difference.

XP = expected points.

BC = big scoring chance.

I like expected goals/points, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because there are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But I also think they highlight the flow of the games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.

Good Luck.