UEFA Champions League betting tip: Liverpool- Atletico Madrid
Mar 11, 2020
UEFA Champions League: Liverpool- Atletico Madrid
I was very pleased with my first leg notes..................
Liverpool are holders and despite the holy grail for them being a Premier League title they have never won, that looks in the bag now with the Reds coasting towards the championship and breaking every record en route and so, you have to feel attention will now switch to Europe. However, as good as their results have been, it is easier to see the 2018-19 Liverpool team as better, but the newer version is more machine like and efficient. They only kept one clean sheet in six CL group stage games, conceded three at Anfield to Salzburg and lost away to a very average Napoli side and probably only looked even close to their best in two of those six starts.
Atletico looked really good at the start of the season and unusually for them, were putting up some eye catching offensive stats and I felt and hoped that we were going to see a new and improved Diego Simeone led team. However, they have struggled since, have lost four times and drawn 10 in La Liga and are involved in a six way battle for two remaining top 4 places and were recently eliminated from the Copa del Rey by a third tier team. I would have argued that they were better off out of the domestic cup anyway, but they did field a strong looking team for that. Excuses can be made, they have had a terrible run of injuries, but today feels like draw a line in the sand time and Atletico and Simeone need a result today.
They have some numbers they have take comfort from ahead of this game, most notable is a fine knockout stage record as host under Simeone, never losing (8-4-0) and conceding just twice in those 12 starts, Liverpool are also winless in their last five away games against Spanish opposition and, although they are unbeaten in two-legged ties in Europe under Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool have tasted defeat in seven of their last 13 away games on the continent.A couple of wins in that sequence were against opponents who opted to gamble and just throw the kitchen sink at the Reds and that will definitely not be Simeone's game plan. Regardless of result this evening, Liverpool will be confident of victory at Anfield, so nothing will be decided in Madrid, but despite the visitors having positive memories of the Wanda Metropolitano Stadium, where they won their 6th Champions League title, I can only see any value with Atletico off level ball.
Saúl Ñíguez gave a very passionate interview in build up , he was full of praise for Liverpool and spoke about how they will "press like wild animals" but ended with : "We know we can hurt Liverpool , we know their strengths and weaknesses, and we always compete against big teams. We have to make the most of the home game. There will be an incredible atmosphere in the stadium, the best ever.”
Atletico won that 1-0 with Saúl Ñíguez living up to his passionate speech and scoring the only goal of the game. It was kind of what we expected, in that Liverpool saw an awful lot of the ball (73%) and Atleti, who were super well organised and disciplined , just dared the Reds to break them down. Liverpool have played four games subsequently, struggled past West Ham and Bournemouth and lost to Watford and Liverpool by a combined 5-0 and they are clearly at a low seasonal level. However, that level was very high and two things are different this evening, firstly Liverpool are at home and Anfield is a very special place on a European night under floodlights and secondly they need a result and all they would have been thinking about during those last four starts, was the game tonight. Pool are 32-2-0 at home in the league since the start of last season and are 4-2-0 here in cup games this season.Jürgen Klopp is yet to lose a home Champions League game with Liverpool (11-4-0) and Atlético have won just one of their last nine away Champions League knockout matches (1-2-6). This will have a very different atmosphere to the first leg and it feels like time for Liverpool to turn it on again, they are going to have a LOT of possession and that rarely works out well for the opposition at Anfield.
2 units Liverpool -1.25 goals 2.41 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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