You got a look at the updated Championship stats yesterday (see previous post) and I wanted to give you a look at how I applied those to yesterday's games, just so you get to see the full picture ................
Championship:
Brentford- Leeds United
What a game in prospect ! These two come out as the two best teams in the division on all known stats, but United have hit their usual "wall" and I warned you about this both last season and this, in my opinion, you just cannot ask players to do double and treble training sessions week after week in pre season and then battle through a 46 game Championship campaign (I doubt there is as demanding a league in world football as this) without paying the price. To be fair, the United performance levels have still been good, Bielsa has said there has been no dip in those and the numbers back him up, but they have won just 2/10 starts and the Bees six in that sequence and prior to the start of that run of game United were 13 points ahead of Brentford and a home win tonight will see the West London minnows go above famous Leeds. If I am honest, I do feel this is more of a blip from United than that "wall", as their numbers remain so good, but confidence is a funny thing, easy to ignore when you have it and bloody hard to find once lost ! Bees have a wonderful home record in this series, 4-1-0 in their five Championship seasons with a 10-2 goal difference and will be up for this, the penultimate ever home game at Griffin Park.
Barnsley- Birmingham City
The brief upturn after the arrival of head coach Gergard Struber did not last long and Barnsley have won just 1/8 and sit 8 points from safety and we are now well into the final third of the season. In Championship terms, their -30 ITB numbers are not terrible for a bottom 3 team, especially as just 10 teams are + for the campaign, but one of those is City and the Blues have a +45 differential in their favour.
The visitors played Friday and got a very nice win 3-1 away to highflying, but not very good, Bristol City and they have had a little more recovery time than Barnsley who played out a hard fought derby draw with Sheffield Wednesday a day later .Given that City have the better and bigger squad that and the quick turnaround works to their advantage and Barnsley have struggled particularly in these midweek games ( they are 0-3-5 and have conceded 2+ goals in six ), of which there are many in the Championship, the visitors have the advantage coming in . Still without their first choice keeper, the Tykes will again have Brad Collins in goal (conceded 26 in 13 league starts.................an extra 0.3 of a goal pg) and Marcel Ritzmaier who was brought in during the transfer window to bolster midfield is injured. It was the defense that needed addressing and Struber did himself and the board no favours by saying this on local radio the day
after the window closed : "The defense is not good enough for the Championship", typical of the reaction on the Barnsley forum was ........."The fans knew it, Stendel knew it, now Stuber knows it, every pundit and commentator who watches us points it out, yet the board at no point have seriously addressed it. Incompetence."
Should be a goal or two in this for the Blues and they have tightened up considerably since New Year, conceding just 6 in 6 against fellow second tier opposition.
1.75 units Birmingham City level ball 2.05 asian line/Sportmarket.
Wigan Athletic- Middlesbrough
The weather is not really conducive to "overs" having said that the rain is set to disappear by kick off and the wind to at least settle to a more constant speed, but you have been warned !
I saw Boro on Saturday and was quite impressed ( see notes below), they play an offensive game and should edge into lower mid table over the coming months.
Wigan's need is great, they are four points from safety , but at times look quite good, XP gives them an additional 18 points and puts them 7th (!) I cannot agree with that, but my ITB stats sees them above four teams and they would clearly settle for that, you always need luck and they have not always had that, but let's say if they are a bottom 3 team, then they are a "good one" .
Ahead of their most recent midweek home game (Sheffield Wednesday) two weeks ago my lengthy notes included ............
Wigan have looked much better than their league position of 23rd at times and ahead of their last home game, with Bristol City I noted .........
Wigan had a bad run at home in the Autumn, but have generally been pretty tough to beat at the the DW Stadium since returning to the Championship, with a 15-12-8 record, which is decent as they have been in a two season relegation battle.As I mentioned yesterday XP puts them 8th, I have never been able to go along with that and still cannot see them as that good, but they are +10 ITB for the last 7 games and have a +38 ITB differential over City across the last 15. XP puts Athletic 21 points ahead and I can tell you that visiting supporters are not happy at all. They have no confidence in the head coach, transfer policy and believe they are in a relegation scrap, or could be soon. That might seem crazy as they are 11th with 38 points, but they have been awful for a long time and their stats have been terrible all season and still heading only downwards, having allowed 144 attempts inside their own box in their last 15 games, a total that is 3rd worst in the division behind only Charlton (149) and basement club Luton (157).
Again, no luck for The Latics who "won" most stat categories, were denied by 7 saves (Dan Bentley MOTM in the City goal) and missed several BC's and the broken record which is City picking up points they had no right to take, continues to play. Anyway, Wigan are in trouble now (six points from safety) and go to Leeds United the "best" team in the Championship on Saturday. They have had ten days to prepare for this, Wednesday had to travel to London and back for their cup game at the weekend and used 9 players who had taken part in the previous league game.
Wigan assistant head coach Leam Richardson spoke to the media about how his team had prepared for this game.............
“It has been very productive; it was a long trip back from Swansea and we have had time to reflect.
“It was strange not playing on Saturday but thankfully we rescheduled the game for sooner rather than later so we are looking forward to Tuesday.
“The Championship is relentless and you have to get your work in when you can because the games come thick and fast and the enormity of each game means you do need to do your homework and your work on the training pitch.
“It has been a really good few days on the training pitch and the lads have really enjoyed that.”
The Owls won October’s reverse fixture at Hillsborough 1-0 and Richardson added that game was another example of why Latics are putting an emphasis on their work in both boxes in training.
“We had a few big moments in the game at Hillsborough and, in the Championship, you need to take your moments in the games and that’s the difference,” Richardson continued.
“We have to be ruthless in both boxes and that is something we are working really hard at to get the results that we need.
“Every season is the same, you have an objective at the start of the season and by the end of the season you want to reach that. Our thoughts and our work ethic haven’t changed; we are full of belief, full of hard work and there is a work ethic amongst the staff and the group to push forwards.
“You look at the fixture list when it gets released and there are no easy fixtures; it is all really good teams with good players and good managers – as we are – and I am sure we will offer just as stern a test as Sheffield Wednesday on Tuesday night.”
Latics haven’t won in their last seven matches at the DW Stadium, after previously winning over half of their Championship matches at home since promotion in 2018.
And Richardson said getting a strong record at the DW back on track is something the players will be looking to make happen on Tuesday.
“Since we have been at the club, the DW has been a bit of a fortress and the fans have been fantastic,” Richardson said. “The players have so much belief when they play at home and we have more good results than others at the DW.
“Tuesday night I am sure will be no different; the fans will be full of voice, the players certainly know the task ahead and we will give everything we have got to win the game.”
Wigan won that 2-1, then followed up with a 1-0 defeat of Leeds at Elland Road ( but lost attempts ITB 16-1) and have played once subsequently, a 2-1 home loss to Preston on Saturday, there were 28 attempts in that, 20 ITB and 4 BC's and I expect more of the same this evening. BTS at least once and best value with .............
1.75 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.27 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
