For my money J-L1 is the best or should I say most reliable league, you pretty much know how many games each season are going to end 1X2 and the number of goals that will be scored and even, when they are likely to come, all of which helps  !

 

There are traditionally a lot of late goals too, a few less in the two recent campaigns where we had the season split into two stages, as that meant games were played under very different circumstances, so we can sway those, numbers for the last three "normal" seasons are as follows............

 

2018: 41.83%- 22.55%-35.62 % (1X2) and 2.65 goals

2017: 41.18%- 23.86%- 34.97% (1X2) and 2.59 goals

2014: 40.85% - 25.16%- 33.99% (1X2) and 2.52 goals

 

This season, through 280 of the 306 games......41.79%-23.57%-34.64% (1X2) and 2.62 goals.

 

We can call that four seasons, the bands are incredibly tiny, by which I mean, for example, home wins have come in at between 40.85% and 41.83%, in terms of odds, that is 2.39-2.447 and it is a very similar story with draws and aways and goals, with only a 0.13 swing across those four campaigns.

 

We have used this to our advantage in Japan before and in other leagues, where numbers are similarly close and it is amazing how , over a full campaign, numbers revert to their mean, time and time again. Usually you get a goal drought (or flood) in early season, or a low home or away win percentage in these leagues and that is when you can take advantage, as they almost always swing back to where they should be.

 

J-L1 is a prime example as there the numbers are so rigid, this year, through 169 games (one short of 19 rounds) home wins were running at 46.15% and goals below expected levels at 2.44, now, they are pretty much right where they should be. Moving from 46.15 % to 41.79% and from 2.44 to 2.62 might not seem that much, but to do so over 111 games means that the interim fixtures have played out in 35% home wins and with 2.91 goals. It is a huge advantage knowing that there are likely to be significantly fewer home wins in this instance (it could have been aways or draws) and circa 0.4 to 0.5 goals more, especially given that oddsmakers lines will have been shifted to take into account what has gone on across those previous rounds.

 

That is not going to help us too much over the final three weeks in JL1 as numbers are pretty much at expected levels, but I can assure you that a little research in leagues that are running below or over where they should be, especially if those traditional numbers are stable (and you will be amazed how many leagues are) will give you a good starting point and repay a little hard work.

 

League table:

 

 

	1	1	FC Tokyo	31	19	5	7	44	24	+20	62	WWWL	15	12	0	3	27	11	16	7	5	4	17	13
	2	1	Yokohama F-Marinos	31	19	4	8	60	37	+23	61	WWWW	16	11	3	2	34	14	15	8	1	6	26	23
	3	2	Kashima Antlers	31	17	8	6	52	27	+25	59	LWXW	16	11	3	2	29	12	15	6	5	4	23	15
	4		Kawasaki Frontale	32	15	12	5	54	29	+25	57	WWWX	16	5	9	2	20	13	16	10	3	3	34	16
	5	1	Cerezo Osaka	31	16	5	10	35	23	+12	53	WXWL	16	8	3	5	19	10	15	8	2	5	16	13
	6	1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	31	14	9	8	44	28	+16	51	LXWW	15	6	6	3	20	11	16	8	3	5	24	17
	7	1	Oita Trinita	31	12	10	9	34	30	+4	46	WLWX	16	7	3	6	18	14	15	5	7	3	16	16
	8	1	Consadole Sapporo	31	12	7	12	50	45	+5	43	LWLL	15	7	4	4	28	18	16	5	3	8	22	27
	9		Gamba Osaka	31	9	11	11	45	45	+0	38	LWXW	15	5	6	4	22	17	16	4	5	7	23	28
	10		Vissel Kobe	31	11	5	15	53	57	-4	38	LWLL	15	6	3	6	28	25	16	5	2	9	25	32
	11	1	Vegalta Sendai	31	11	5	15	36	42	-6	38	WLWL	16	8	4	4	23	19	15	3	1	11	13	23
	12	2	Nagoya Grampus 8	31	9	9	13	44	47	-3	36	WLLX	15	7	2	6	22	17	16	2	7	7	22	30
	13	2	Urawa Reds	32	9	9	14	31	46	-15	36	LLXL	16	4	3	9	14	26	16	5	6	5	17	20
	14	1	Sagan Tosu	31	10	5	16	32	50	-18	35	WLXW	16	7	2	7	21	28	15	3	3	9	11	22
	15	2	Shimizu S-Pulse	31	10	5	16	42	66	-24	35	LLLL	15	6	0	9	19	39	16	4	5	7	23	27
	16		Shonan Bellmare	31	9	4	18	37	61	-24	31	LLLL	16	4	3	9	18	34	15	5	1	9	19	27
	17		Matsumoto Yamaga	31	6	12	13	19	34	-15	30	LXXW	15	2	7	6	9	16	16	4	5	7	10	18
	18		Jubilo Iwata	31	6	7	18	24	45	-21	25	LWXL	16	1	5	10	14	27	15	5	2	8	10	18

 

 

Goal difference is the first tie breaker after points.

 

Eight games this round........... only Oita and Consadole have nothing to play for, but the same is probably true for Gamba, Vissel and Vegalta.

 

Top three go to Champions League, bottom two are relegated, team in 16th to the relegation playoff game.

 

Emperor's Cup semi finals ............ Vissel-Shimizu // Antlers-V-Varen (JL2) are not played until after the end of the regular season, but offer a Champions League spot to the winner and the honour (big thing in Japan) of playing in the final, which will be the first ever game help in the brand new national stadium, built for the Olympics. If that winner is Antlers and they also finish top 3 in the league, the extra CL place will go to the team in 4th. That keeps interest alive and further options open for Frontale/Cerezo/Sanfrecce.

 

 

 

 

 

Kobe have ambition, money, potential and star players, but have really struggled to put it all together over the last two seasons for more than a couple of games. Their latest upturn ended with a 6-2 defeat at Hiroshima and Emperor's cup is their clear priority now and owner Rakuten/Hiroshi Mikitani will forgive almost everything if they win that and achieve the dream of CL football. Cerezo are still in the hunt for 4th and looking at the remaining fixtures they might well be favourite to claim it should they win today. Cerezo have won 7/10 in the league and only Frontale have collected more away wins, they have taken three points from 9 of 16 road games and 2/4 trips to Kobe and given their need and Vissel's inconsistency, I prefer the away win.

 

 

David Villa is retiring at the end of this season, he will want to play the final league game and the Emperor's Cup games and another reason to question his/Vissel's motivation today, at least compared to Cerezo.

 

 

 

 

Good Luck.