There is no need to always think outside the box  .......................

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

La Liga: Through 13 rounds.

 

 

* played 12 games

 

Season net ITB numbers alongside each team, for example, Barcelona have created 90, given up 61 (90-61 =+29).  Figures after that in brackets relate to the last five games only.

 

Sociedad's numbers are low for a top 5 team , but are on the up through the last five starts.

 

Granada and especially Valencia are way behind where teams in 8th and 9th place respectively should be, 10th placed Osasuna's numbers are better and +15 for their last five is only bettered by the top 3.

 

Levante have had a couple of surprise results in the last month, but they and Valladolid are producing league worst numbers and look set to slip down the table at some stage.

 

Eibar, Espanyol and Leganes should all be further up the table.

 

Within those last five game numbers, Granada have recorded a La Liga low 22 attempts ITB (they have also averaged just 4.75 per game since Week 2), Levante 60 and Betis 55 have conceded the most, third highest was Valladolid with 46, so big defensive concerns with those two.

 

Betis 93, Sevilla and Levante both 87 and Alaves 80 have had the five games with the most attempts total .

 

Looking at the full season: Levante have allowed double digit (10+) ITB attempts against them in 10/13 starts, Valladolid have averaged just 5.08 on opponent's goal, never registering more than 8.

 

Really impressed by the Getafe numbers, they have only allowed more than 7 once and are a combined 16-1 in their last two starts, one of which game against Osasuna who averaged 10 on their opponent through their previous six starts , all the more so as they have also been involved in the Europa League . They have been dismissed as "dirty" and a long ball team by many, but they were joint 5th last season and picked up 42 points from Matchday 14 onwards and regardless of how they play, it is clear teams struggle to deal with it and they look to be going forward not backwards and another high finish is on the cards. Their next five games and final starts of 2019 are against teams in the  bottom half of the table currently and current odds as high as 5.0 for top 6 and 21.0 for top 4 might look really good value by the Christmas break.

 

Valencia are priced at circa 7.0 to finish bottom half, they probably won't, but are they are 86% chance not to ? They are currently 6th but only 3 points ahead of the team in 13th, their -32 ITB numbers are not good, they are heavily involved in the Champions League, tied on 7 points with Chelsea and Ajax, so two huge games ahead and a guarantee of Europe League involvement anyway. They travel to Betis next weekend ahead of the vital home game with Chelsea, then play the derby with Villarreal a few days after, they host Real Madrid directly after the trip to Amsterdam. Again, easy to see those odds dropping before the mini Christmas break, given the difficulty of games, other priorities and those poor ITB numbers.

 

Anyway, a couple of ways you could choose to use ITB numbers, but they are many others.

 

 

XP puts the top of the table like this .....

 

 

lower down sees ....

 

 

Points rounded up/down to the nearest whole number. Barce and Real Madrid with a game in hand.

 

Good Luck.