clubgowi Saturday previews.............J-League 1 // MLS
May 25, 2019
Japan : J League 1: Shimizu S-Pulse- Vegalta Sendai
Shimizu are a team we have a good handle on and they won twice for us last month and notes on both were included within my preview of the second of those .......
Last week I looked at Jubilo-SSP....................
Two weeks ago, ahead of a home game with Kashima Antlers I wrote.........
Jubilo Iwata are yet to win this season, have scored twice in four starts (22 goals in 25 games) . They have won twice in 15 starts, both against teams struggling for form and only survived via the relegation playoff last season and they have averaged less than a point per games across 23 starts since the World Cup break last May.
They drew that 1-1, rode their luck, albeit against a very good team and followed up last week with a win at Shonan Bellmare. However , our jury is still out on Shonan and it will take far more for me to see the Jubilo troubles, in terms of wins and goals, as being over. Shimizu are currently bottom of the table, but have had some tough fixtures, however, they have goals in them and are a strong road team, something I spoke about earlier in this campaign ...........
SSP have scored three goals themselves, hit the woodwork twice and are, anyway, far happier on the road IMO. They were top "road" scorers last season, also conceding the 5th most and away starts averaged 3.24 goals pg. In their three road games since, they scored two in a heavy loss to Consadole, drew 1-1 with star laden Vissel Kobe and lost 2-1 at highflying FC Tokyo where they led with 15 minutes remaining, were probably the better team and deserved a point at least. They won the reverse fixture 5-1 late last season and have not conceded in three visits to Iwata City.
Shimizu won 2-1 and were worthy winners, two up inside and hour, they dominated all major stat categories including attempts on target 8-2, saves 1-5 etc and whilst they are almost always better away from home, today they host Cerezo Osaka who I have serious concerns about ..........
They won that 1-0 and also kindly lost 4-0 at home to a very strong Kawasaki Frontale in their most recent home start. they stopped the rot with a 1-1 draw at highlfling Oita Trinita last weekend and meaningless midweek road win in the cup . They come into this bottom of J-League 1, but within three points of the team in 12th and only one adrift of Vegalta Sendai who I view as the inferior team. SSP outplayed Oita seven days ago, deserved more and whilst I do usually prefer them as visitor, teams need to pick up home points and this feels like a big and possibly season defining game for them and one they need to win , with only one further fixture here in Shizuoka before the first week in July and that from a very good Yokohama team.
2 units Shimizu S-Pulse -0.25 ball 2.08 asian line/Sportmarket.
MLS:
Real Salt Lake- Atlanta United
Real beat Toronto FC 3- 0 here in Salt Lake last Saturday ..............
This is pretty much an "anti" Toronto bet, I have nothing against the visitors per se and have not fully made my mind up, but opposed them at home to DC United in midweek, writing ............
Notes on DC United can be found at the foot of this email, after a great finish to 2018 and start to this season, they had a mini blip, but are back on track with 4 wins in 6 starts, including their last two and look one of the stronger MLS teams. I have some real issues with Toronto, they look a pale imitation of the team from two years ago and far too heavily reliant on Jozy Altidore who is not fully fit and I doubt he will be up to even close to 90 minutes tonight. They are defensively suspect, have conceded 2+ goals in 7/10 starts and at least once in 15/20 halves of football. Offensively some overachieving in front of goal has papered over some real cracks, they have had only 114 atempts on goal, fewest in MLS, but they have a whopping 45.6% on target, which is totally unsustainable,as is the conversion rate of 19.3%, next best is 14.5% and even that is well above the norm !
TFC were the better team to be honest, but drew 0-0. They were due to struggle in front of goal and I suspect that will continue to even out, until Altidore is fit and/or he gets some additional and experienced help up top, which I understand is the aim in the next transfer window. Altidore did train a little yesterday and might be able to see some game time today, but it will be limited. This will be TFC's 5th start in 15 days, Toronto to Salt Late is 3,000 km a long flight on short turnaround and across two time zones. TFC are a little shorthanded defensively too, have a poor record here ( RSL lead 8-1-1) and the hosts have had a free midweek to rest up and prepare.
It was more about opposing TFC, but RSL played well, missed another big chance, hit the woodwork twice and Altidore did play the second half.
Real can take confidence from that, they have been home for 12 days and had an extra day to recover, Atlanta played in New York last Sunday (two hour + flight) and could not beat a team who played an hour a man short, after key NYRB CB Tim Parker was sent off. Now they make the four hour trip West and will play at "altitude" , Sandy (where RSL play) is 1,356m above sea level and whilst that will not cause sickness. it is still noticeable, especially for finely tuned athletes. AU will almost certainly be without Tito Villalba who picked up a knock in NY and with huge money signing Ezequiel Barco away on international duty that is a lot of quality to be missing and, on both offensive flanks.
2 units Real Salt Lake level ball 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket.
Colorado Rapids- Columbus Crew
I opposed Crew last week for their trio to Minnesota United ...........
Most of you know I am not a huge fan of Crew, that has largely worked out well, but I did come unstuck opposing them when they hosted Galaxy recently ...........
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I highlighted some Columbus Crew issues on March 23rd they they travelled to play in Philly .........
I do not want to say an awful lot about this and am still making my mind up about both teams long term prospects. Union only have a point on board from their three starts, but that came last time out away to Atlanta and they are probably better than we have seen so far, Crew have 7 points on board and should be good, they are usually in the mix and look decent on paper, but my feeling is that they have overachieved and are a bit more vulnerable than we have seen so far. However, I am happy to be proved wrong and, as I started by saying, am keeping an open mind about both and most MLS teams at this very early stage of the campaign.
Having said that, I don't think this is a great match up for Crew, the visitors lack pace in central defence and like to push their full backs up creating 2 v 1's upfield on the flanks, but this can be dangerous in transition against an opponent with pace on the counter with the Crew CB's almost always dropping too deep and leaving a lot of exploitable space.
Up front Crew are not creating a lot, despite pushing up, their wide players are not getting into many dangerous areas and their attacks are a bit one dimensional, they have made the most of them so far, but will need to do more to keep even this fairly low scoring rate up and today, scorer of two of their four goals (and both scored on the road) Gyasi Zardes is absent on international duty (USA) along with Waylon Francis (Costa Rica), Justin Meram (Iraq) and Wil Trapp (USA). This leaves them incredibly weak and short of options on the left and up top.
Union have a good record in this series 2-1-2 away to Crew which is great in MLS terms and 3-1-1 in the last five h2h starts in Philly, scoring 3 goals in each of the wins. Game is more important to Union given how both have started and I expect them to win.
I impressed myself re-reading those overnight (!) and there was some good stuff in just a few lines . Crew lost that 3-0 and have actually lost 6/8 since typing those notes, including their last five (scoring just 2 goals). LA Galaxy are coming off just their second loss of the season, away to NYRB on Saturday, that was their first real trip East all season, but they did not travel home afterwards, remained out East, took Sunday off and trained Monday and Tuesday in Columbus and will have a light work out here this morning.
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Crew won that, but lost 3-0 at home a couple of days later (of course they did !) , maybe Galaxy didn't like the extended time away from home, the Columbus issues remain and now they are on the road, where they traditionally struggle anyway, with a 2-2-11 record and 11-31 goal difference since June last year.
United are unbeaten at their new home and have played four top teams here in NYCFC, Seattle, DCU and Galaxy, this feels like a step down and a good chance for Minnesota to start a run, with 5 of their next 7 starts coming at Allianz Field. Crew look set to be without their starting keeper ( Zack Steffen ) again tonight, back up Joe Bendik has conceded six goals in his two starts this season (both 3-0 defeats) and he is 0-1-17 in his last 18 MLS starts, without a clean sheet, shipping 49 goals ! His confidence has to be totally shot !
United won that 1-0, it could/should have been more emphatic, Crew had just two attempts from inside the box, none on target and only four total.
Rapids were winless before beating LA Galaxy 1-0 on the road last time out, they had played quite nicely at home to Real Salt Lake prior to that, despite losing 3-2 and have something to try and build on now, but today is more about continuing to oppose Crew on the road, especially short handed and looking to handle a pretty full treatment room. But both LAG and RSL boosted those form lines yesterday.
The loss to United was not only the team’s seventh since April 13 but also the fifth time in that sequence that Crew had been shutout. With the loss of Milton Valenzuela for the season and Harrison Afful who is still recovering from a broken jaw, the team has had to rely on Hector Jimenez and Josh Williams (who hasn’t played the role he is being asked to do, in a couple of seasons).
Winger Pedro Santos was also out against Minnesota, and new additions David Accam and David Guzman were each in the lineup after arriving less than two weeks ago and still look out of sync with team mates. Crosses from wide are a big part of how Columbus play, but very few total last weekend, none of which found their target, add in the goalkeeping issues ( see above) and this is a team in trouble and one some way from home and at altitude, with the Commerce City stadium the highest in MLS.
1.75 units Colorado Rapids -0.5 ball 2.35 asian line/Sportmarket.
Chicago Fire- New York City FC
New England Revolution- DC United
Earlier this month I previewed Fire- Revolution ............
Fire are without a goal in three starts, but all were on the road and they will take heart from the last of those, a 0-0 draw at LAFC. They have had to make the long trip home from California for a quick turnaround, but will be happy to be back in the Windy City where they have collected 7 points from their last three fixtures and facing a favourite opponent, who have been leaking goals at an alarming rate. Fire have a 6-3-1 h2h record , including winning 4 of the last 5, 3 by 2+ goals. Revolution have lost 7/10 starts and have conceded 13 goals in their last three, six coming at Philadelphia Union at the weekend. NER, despite that awful defensive record, have most of their talent at the other end of the pitch and have scored 7 in their last four away starts and have a goal in 9/10 visits to Chicago. It was a terrible loss in Philly, they conceded 5 without reply in the second half and heads dropped far too quickly and right now, they just expect one conceded to become 2 or 3 in double quick time. New England head coach Brad Friedal apologised to fans for the 3-0 loss to Montreal recently, they have shipped 10 in two subsequent starts and there is not much he can now say !
Revolution supporters are VERY unhappy, these comments are typical.......
First Burns has to go then Friedel. If Friedel gets fired then Burns just gets to pick a new coach. Weve seen how that goes havent we. Burns out first then new GM can fire Friedel and get somebody that has a clue.I am now starting to turn off the game before it’s over. I have watched the Revs since day 1 and have NEVER done this before. We are that bad and that painful to watch. There is no combination players on this roster that can win so Friedel’s hands are tied. He has just assembled a bad group of players …. period. He would need about 8 new, GOOD, players…. then maybe.
It is a long trip home for Fire, but they will have at least travelled with a spring in their step and not cowering like a beaten dog, which is what Revolution are impersonating currently.
Chicago won that 5-0, they then beat Minnesota 2-0 here, but lost 4-1 in San Jose last week, that was their second trip to California and back inside three weeks and that will catch up with you sonner or later. They also meet a very strong opponent today and one who is on fire at present (excuse the pun), with NYCFC unbeaten in seven , with 5 clean sheets including in three away starts , all 2-0 wins and each coming against an opponent currently top 7 in the overall MLS standings ! All numbers suggest that City have the best defence in the league and they are well rested, have not played in two weeks and boast a decent scoring record in this fixture, 7 goals in their last three visits to the Windy City. Away win.
2.25 units New York City FC level ball 2.09 asian line/Sportmarket.
Revolution's problems were set out above, they sacked Brad Friedel after the Fire game and there has been a response, a 3-1 defeat of San Jose here in Boston and 0-0 draw away to Montreal Impact, the second of which was the better performance. If you looked at the bare numbers from the first and were told one team had won 3-1, you only conclusion would have to be that New England were lucky to score one (!), let alone the three they managed. Revolution were totally dedicated to the defensive phase of their game and saw just 28% possession. It worked versus SJE on that occasion, but everything fell right for Revolution and it is going to be tough for them to win home games with that approach, especially against the stronger teans in their Conference and those who have not had to travel great distances to arrive, step forward DCU. Ahead of a trip for them to Toronto 10 days ago I wrote ......
Notes on DC United can be found at the foot of this email, after a great finish to 2018 and start to this season, they had a mini blip, but are back on track with 4 wins in 6 starts, including their last two and look one of the stronger MLS teams.
They drew that 0-0, did lose their only subsequent start, a 2-1 defeat in Houston, but Dynamo are very decent at home and United ended that with 10 men, for most of the early stages of each half, the visitors looked the stronger team , they created more and better chances, and limited the Dynamo offense. Given that they are likely to see far more possession tonight that in either of those previous two games, I expect Rooney and Acosta (see below) to fire the visitors to victory. DCU have picked up 64 points in the last 12 months ( 34 games), NER just 31, that would have seen United finish 3rd in MLS play last season, Revoluton 21st.
2 units DC United level ball 2.44 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
MLS: DC United- Atlanta United (written March 3rd)
I was going to discuss both of today's games and have strong opinions about both LAFC and SKC, but will save them for next week after I have got a look at them h2h.
MLS is changing, almost all for the better, with quality on the rise and some ambitious teams entering the league in recent campaigns and, at the forefront of that are Atlanta United and ahead of last season I wrote ..........
United were a fantastic addition to MLS last season, both in terms of their style of football and huge crowds and whilst they came up short in the post season game with Columbus Crew, they did not have a lot of luck there and on reflection, I feel they simply ran out of steam and will still take a massive amount from their debut campaign ............
Atlanta are a new MLS expansion franchise team and have had a fantastic first season in the big league. A MLS record crowd of almost 72,000 saw the draw 2-2 with Toronto FC at the weekend, that number is expected to be beaten today and they have averaged attendances of over 48,000 all season. A win there would have given United second place and a bye week and they led twice and late, but TFC are the #1 ranked team in the MLS and the point gave them the record points total for a season, so had motivation of their own. It does feel like Atlanta were the second best team, they scored 9 more goals than anyone apart from TFC, their +30 goal difference was 16 better than any other team apart from Toronto, in addition to that offensive prowess, only three teams in MLS conceded fewer goals , despite which, all their starts averaged 3.24 per game.
I think it would be good for Atlanta and football in the US, for the hosts to win and I expect them to continue the MLS Cup trends and do so, scoring a few goals in the process. They have scored in all 17 home games, at least twice in the last eight and also in 13/15, three or more in ten ! That includes a 3-1 win over Crew in June and they followed that up with a two goal win in Columbus a month later.
They have opened the piggy bank and spent a MLS record $15m to sign Independiente teenager Ezequiel Barco and it will be super exciting to see him, but he has picked up an injury and will miss the opening month or so, but it remains, a massive statement of intent. In addition, they turned down reported bids of a combined $35m for Miguel Almiron and Josef Martinez either of which would have broken MLS records and all these dealings highlight how ambitious United are and that they are operating on an entirely different level to anything or anyone we have seen before in MLS. They also made the eye catching signing of U.S. international Darlington Nagbe and I have spoken often about how key he was to Portland Timbers:"You want to be in the attack and have possession of the ball and control the game. "Atlanta did a great job with that last year, so as a player you want to be a part of something like that and hopefully I can add to that.“I’ve seen a team that’s organized, a team that plays together, loves to attack and keep possession of the ball and be in control of the game. "So that’s all the things that you’re looking forward to as a player. "You want to be a part of that.”
They actually lost 4-0 on the road on opening day, but barely took a subsequent backwards step and won the MLS Cup, being very dominant all season and right through the playoffs. They sold Miguel Almiron to Newcastle United for a huge fee in MLS terms and have a new head coach in Frank de Boer, who has replaced Tata Martino, who has taken charge of the Mexican national team and there are eyes on American soccer now from the rest of the footballing world, which has not often been the case. AU remain super motivated to win trophies and replaced Almiron with Argentine attacking midfielder Gonzalo “Pity” Martinez who was purchased from South American champions River Plate for what might well be a MLS record fee. Pity was voted South American player of the Year last season and as I said, MLS is attracting very different levels of players now and at ealier stages of their development/career. With regard to de Boer, he has a lot to prove after a lengthy spell out of the game following poor showings at both Inter Milan and Crystal Palace, at the latter it ended in tears after just five games (!), the shortest spell in PL history and it was said that the South London side took the decision almost before the first game was played, with FDB trying to play a formation and style that the squad was totally unsuited to . He has a lot to prove now and I have read that one or two players were already not 100% happy at United, they were ultimately convinced to stay, but it might not take much for seeds of unrest to start to grow and in truth, the only way is down and Atlanta also have a first ever Champions League campaign to deal with and that often comes at a price. Atlanta again look a top 3 team on paper, but I am not in love with the coaching appointment, Almiron will be missed and "Pity" might need time.
DC United ended last season on fire and we discussed them MANY times after their new satdium was open and result began to improve, this was typical ...............
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What a head of steam DC United are building up and an incredible and immediate impact from Wayne Rooney, they blew Portland Timbers away in midweek to continue their march up the table, ahead of which I wrote ..........
I previewed DCU three weeks ago when they hosted New York Red Bulls, a team we are very keen on ..........
This is a big traditional rivalry and added extra spice as it will be the first time they have met in DCU's brand new Audi Field home. United have made just one start here, a 3-1 defeat of Vancouver, when Wayne Rooney made his debut from off the bench , he started in the only subsequent game,a 3-1 loss at Atlanta United on Saturday, which makes 15 goals conceded in six starts for the team from the capital. DCU sit bottom of the East five points adrift of the team above them, BUT have four games in hand of everyone and have only played three home games total ( 2-1-0) because of the stadium build, six of their next eight are at home and if they could find a way to win five, they could still force their way into the post season picture, as a minimum, I feel they will be looking to at least put in a pretence at a playoff push. DCU to press for the win, but leaving their leaky defense exposed .
NY won 1-0, but DCU have taken seven points from their three subsequent games, winning both home starts , scoring six goals and also hitting the woodwork five times, Rooney has been making an increasing impact and if not quite building up a head of steam, they at least stoking up the fire. They are still at the foot of the Eastern Conference, but will move above three teams with the win and up to eighth, within six of the playoffs and with 2-4 games in hand of all teams above them. Not only that, but they have still only played six of their 20 starts here at Audi Field (4-1-1) and with home wins always north of 50% in MLS that gives them a big top 6 opportunity.
Portland had a very impressive mid season run and posted some incredibly solid defensive stats, but lost at home to Vancouver Whitecaps on Saturday and have to leave the West Coast for the first time since June 26th and do so on a short week and very quick turnaround after a cross country flight with three hour time difference. That leaves little to no time to sort what went wrong out at the weekend for a team who have got into travel mode. Timbers played three early season games in the East conceding nine goals, five to two teams who might well be below DCU after this evening.
They won 4-1, also hit the woodwork with two goals from Rooney , who recorded a 9.3 player rating, next highest was 7.5 and that highlights his contribution. The former England player has always been streaky and it is easy to see another goal or two from him today, still only 32 he has probably left Europe too early, but that is DSU's and MLS' gain. Now they face the team immediately above them in the table and this is huge, not least with one of their few remaining road games up next, a rematch with NYRB in the Big Apple. It is not just Rooney of course, Luciano Acosta has three goals and three assists in four starts and Bill Hamid has returned to the club and played in goal in midweek , his first start in 11 months after a loan spell in Europe and he was influential and is looking for his 50th clean sheet for United today.
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I also wrote about the committment shown by Rooney to the cause with this example..........
Last month DCU beat Orlando City here and for those of you who have not seen it, you have to watch how the 96th minute played out ! It was a hot, humid night and with the scores tied at 2-2, United sent up their keeper and all 11 players for a corner to try and grab the three points, OC stole the ball and on the break Rooney was the only possible saviour , he gave a younger opponent who was racing towards an empty net a head start but somehow won the ball back then went upfield to set up the winner, cue massive, massive celebrations and legendary DCU status for the former England man ! It just illustrates how much Rooney has bought into the project and football in the US.
BTW, Luciano Acosta whom I mentioned above, scored the winner and a hat-trick on the night, he is only 1.6m tall and must have leapt that high to make the header !
DCU made the playoffs which was fantastic after their start, interest was through the roof and they have something to really build on now. Rooney and Acosta are still in DC and the club look to have strengthened, they took 40 points from their final 20 starts last year (which equates to the same level of form as AU across the full 34 games) and were 13-2-2 as host. They have more depth this year and if Rooney can stay out of bars and trouble and Acosta is not too upset about his move to Europe falling through, a big season in on the cards. Home win.
1.75 units DC United -0.5 ball 2.31 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Sport:
Burns (General Manager) out. Friedel out.The roster needs to be cleared of all the bad contracts.Build around Cropper, Gil, and the youth.This is shaping up to be the worst season since 2011, and that was a nightmare. This team needs to be rebuilt from top to bottom.