Wolves are unbeaten under new head coach Vitor Pereira and the seven points taken from those impressive three games ( 3-0 away Leicester, 2-0 at home to Man Utd and 2-2 away to Tottenham) have taken them out of the drop zone, albeit only on goal difference. Things do not get easier for them at any stage soon, as they play the top five in their next six starts and the other is against the 8th placed team! We could make a case for this in some way being the most likely game in that sequence that they will win, as Forest are this season's surprise package and as well as they have played, do not yet have the respect that most top teams usually garner. Not sure if that is a good or bad thing, but Wolves probably view themselves as on a similar level to the visitors, the two clubs are separated by just 95km, the hosts are the longer established top flight side and finished 14 points superior last season. Of course, they have gone in a different direction this season, but I am only talking about the mindset coming in and Forest do not yet have the fear factor that say a visit from Chelsea might bring. Also, since Forest returned to the EPL in 22/23 they have yet to beat Wolves in five meetings, losing the first 1-0 and drawing the last four, including at the City Ground in the reverse fixture early this season. However, the hosts are 0-0-5 at home to top half of the table opposition and have conceded 2+ goals in each, 16 goals total.

 

Forest are one of "our" teams in that we backed them preseason and those notes and an update last week, can be found on the clubgowi website. They have won their last five starts, the last three without conceding and they are also 8-2-0 against bottom half of the table opposition and within that a very impressive 5-1-0 on the road, scoring 2+ goals in each of the last five and it should have been all six as they won xGD in the other by 2.31 and BC's 6-0! Head coach Nuno got a fairly glowing write up in those notes and he is returning to the club where he made his name in the EPL, before leaving to join Tottenham where he only lasted 17 games! That did include two visits to Molineux, a 2-2 draw in the League Cup which his team won on penalties and a 1-0 win in the EPL, so he at least knows what kind of welcome to expect from the Wolves faithful.

 

A draw would not be a terrible result for either team as it would cement Forest's 3rd place and give Wolves a small buffer over the drop zone, but I expect both to be playing for the win and if the draw comes, 2-2 is as likely a score as any other. Those trends above (blue type) heavily favour two Forest goals and that is my pick at a value looking quote for a team who are suited by playing on the road and where they have collected 54.05% of points won and 57.69% of goals scored. 

 

2.5 units Nottingham Forest to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 2.44 asian line.

 

Good luck!