Just 5 rounds remain and all will be completed inside the next 18 days, players earn their salary in Brazil !

 

Last five seasons , through these five rounds, that's 249 games (one was not played) have produced 51.4% homes, 25.5% draws and 22.1% aways, with 2.44 goals, this year Serie A is running at 52.4% , 29.4% and 18.2% with 2.23 goals pg.  So a few more goals should be expected, circa 10 or two per round, fewer draws and more aways, so, pretty much what you would normally see over closing rounds in most leagues, but it is always good to get a little confirmation.

 

What's at stake: Top 6 claim a Copa Libertadores spot, top four going into the group stage. 7th down to 13th into Copa Sudamericana as Cruzeiro (currently 9th) are already in the CL group stage having won the Copa do Brasil, bottom four are relegated.

 

I am never 100% sure if teams want to play Sudamericana , but it does carry a Copa Libertadores group stage spot for the winner (like the Europa League) and it is anyway, hard for any of the bigger clubs to avoid by missing out on top 12 or 13 .

 

First tie breaker for league positions is number of wins, not goal difference.

 

 

 

 

1st plays 10th. Palmeiras hold a five point lead at the top of the table and have won two games more than anyone else, they are effectively 10 points away from the title and have not lost in the league since July 25th , actually it came about in the reverse fixture, so easy to see how they might also want a little revenge. I sided with Flu off level ball, at big odds against, that day, but made it clear that despite being outside the top 6 that my own numbers indicated that Palmeiras were definitely top 3. They were last champions in 2016.

 

Fluminense are better than 10th place indicates and on song, play some very nice football, but they have scored just once in five league starts and their priority will be the home game with Ceara at the weekend and their Copa Sudamericana home semi final with Atletico-PR on November 28th.

 

 

 

 

 

Vasco are 15th a point above the drop zone, they have three home games remaining , all versus top 7 teams, but there is a chance that the other two (Sao Paulo and Palmeiras) might have relatively little to play for by then, but with a tough road game up next, that would be a dangerous game to play.  Atletico are 7th, only up to 6th is really up for grabs and they currently trail Atletico MG by a point, but with the easier schedule. APR collected just 10 points from their opening 14 starts, 36 from 19 subsequently, which is an extra 1.18 points pg and is top 2 form for over half the season, However, they are still winless of the road (0-6-10) where they have scored just five goals. They also have another route into the Copa Libertadores, as they lead Fluminense 2-0 after the home leg of their semi final and the winner will play a Columbian team in the two legged final.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cruzeiro have clinched that Copa group stage place and are going to finish somewhere between 6th and 13th. If they really wanted it, I feel it would be 6th and they are almost certainly a top 4 team and a match for anyone on a given day. However, I suspect motivation will be a little hard to come by and any which remains will probably materialise in home games. Corinthians were champions in 2015 and 17, but have made a poor fist of their title defence and are only three points above the drop zone, drawing far too many home games and losing 11 times on the road. They host Vasco on Saturday, Cruzeiro do not play until Sunday, the home side are the better team, but odds seem short enough and the visitors have more at stake. However, Corinthians have not beaten a top half of the table team since July 26th and won only 3 of 18 subsequent starts. Cruzeiro are +9 goals at home, with all the damage done through the middle part of games, with a 14-5 goal difference (+9) between the 31st and 75th minute.

 

 

Good Luck.