FIFA World Cup: Russia- Egypt
First two teams to play for a second time, Russia opened against Saudi Arabia, my notes focussed mainly on the AFC qualifiers, but I also wrote ...........
Only one host nation has ever failed to come through the group stage and Russia have been put into the easiest section you feel with the idea that they will not be the second and Saudi picked as ideal opposition for the opener. However, the Russians are quoted at 1.77 giving up a full handicap ball and that seems very short odds about a team who have not won in seven starts , only five times in 26 ( v teams ranked 30-47-51-57-120), with few really competitive games since 2016 and who are themselves FIFA ranked 70 , three places below the Saudis. They have lost several players to injury and been involved in some doping scandals which have been swept under the carpet and I guess FIFA and the competition would be better served by them at least making the R16, but I could not be tempted by their handicap odds today. They have drawn 3-3 with both Belgium and Spain in the last 15 months, but that is picking out two promising results from maybe 15 poor ones !
We went "over" and BTS which was ok as Russia won 5-0 and felt like it was as much a shock to them as anyone else, SA were poor and might not have scored if they were still out there. I am not sure if the occasion got to them, possibly, they were looking to play out from the back at every opportunity, usually straight to a Russia player (!) and incredible vulnerable to the high press. The hosts were much better than expected, Saudi significantly worse, I would not fully buy into either of those quite yet and I am pretty certain that Russia will be asked more questions today.
Egypt lost their opener to Uruguay, with the South American side scoring a late winner, but they were super wasteful in front of goal with Cavani being unlucky and Suarez playing with his own head and Carlton Palmer's feet (you have to be of a certain age ) ! More of them tomorrow, but ahead of that Matchday 1 game my notes included..............
Today starts with Egypt-Uruquay in Yekaterinburg with the North Africans coming in from Grozny and we have spoken previously of that not making things easy for them ........
Some teams have additionally opted to base themselves in odd cities, Egypt in Grozny in the Chechen Republic for example, I understand why they have chosen that venue (it is an almost entirely Islamic city), but it means a 2,500 km trip to Yekaterinburg and two hour time difference to play their opener, then another two hour shift and 2,000 km trip West to St Petersburg and finally another 1,700km East to Volograd !
That should not be a big problem today, more for upcoming games, their main issue has been to star player Mohamed Salah who has been a doubt since leaving the Champions League final with an injury, he was not expected to feature today, but trained this week and now looks set to play some part. However, that is a quick recovery and words from head coach Hector Cuper imply he is definitely not 100% : "We're trying to make him feel confident. The doctors are giving him the option to play or not, but I know Salah very well and I'm sure he's not afraid, he's not fearful."
Egypt have not won in six with Salah missing the last four and have played very few games v non African teams, just ten in five years, winning only one and scoring just eight goals in those, with a contribution from the Liverpool man to six ( four goals and two assists). They are a big player in Africa and are a 14 time semi, 8 time finalist and six time winner of the ACN, but have only qualified for one of the last four and not for a WC since 1990 and they have a reputation for underperforming outside their own continent.
Salah remained on the bench and you get the impression he was only there to keep Uruguay guessing and/or inspire the Egyptians and the intention was never to risk him and apparently, after "expecting him to play" last Friday he has to pass a fitness test to play today and again, I have my doubts.
Next the logistical basics, Russia played on Thursday in Moscow where they are based, now in St Petersburg just 700 km away. Egypt traveled the 5,000 km to Yekaterinburg and back to Grozny with a two hour time difference to play 24 hours later and have now made the 2,500 trip up to SP, which they did on Sunday after training in Chechen.
That sounds a massive advantage to Russia and Egypt do not really have the draw on their side any longer, as a point woud see them enter the final game three points and six goals behind the Russians , so they will have to gamble at some stage and risk a not 100% Salah. They defended well enough in the opener, but created very little and it really is all about the Liverpool superstar and some have said that decision whether to play him has been taken out of Cuper's hands and the order from the FA is to play him and the "test" just to save face for the head coach. My guess is that the star man is 60-80% fit and would not be risked in a normal game, I feel that Russia have had their confidence restored somewhat and can clinch a R16 spot today and have a big edge in terms of recovery time and travel.
1.75 units Russia -0.5 ball 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
