On May 30th I looked at two of these teams when Chapecoense entertained Ceara ...........

 

Chapecoense won 2-0, it could/should have been 3-1/ 4-1 . They went to Atletico Mineiro at the weekend and despite pLAying just shy of an hour a man short, they twice came from behind with that disadvantage to draw 3-3, a fine point and they also hit the woodwork. Those offensive commenSt remain, they can score against anyone and are not a team I would rush to oppose , as scoring goals always gives you a puncher's chance, but defensively they will ship a lot too, especially on the road. Add in the fact that after the 3,000 km round trip to Belo Horizonte, they now make double that to Salvador and back and we are going to have a tired group of players and they host champions Corinthians this coming weekend and, now that they have a road point, I think that will take priority, they might throw everything at Vitoria for 45 minutes , see what happens, but a good chance they will ease off after that and/or tire.

 

 

 

Santos have started poorly and sit just two points above Parana, however, they have only played one home game (2-0 win) and it is on home soil where most A teams thrive and where Santos are especially strong, something we have discussed a LOT and milked over 4-5 seasons. Over the last three they are 43-9-6 at home, posting a 74.14% win rate and averaging 1.9 goals per game. They are dealing with the loss of star playmaker Lucas Lima (now Palmeiras), but Gariel Barbosa (Gabigol) is back from Europe where things did not work out and eager to get his still very young career back on track. Santos made the decision to go with a strong line up in their midweek Copa do Brasil game and look to get some confidence back after a heavy road defeat last week and that paid off with a 5-1 win, they created a host of chances with Gabigol scoring a hat-trick, his first goals since his return. I expect him to get on the score sheet and Santos to win this by 2+. The hosts have been distracted by the Copa Libertadores, but have secured qualification now to the knockout stage, which they can forget until August, so it should all be about matters domestic.

They won that 3-1, but have subsequently lost all three starts without scoring, including one at home to Cruzeiro , but they meet nothing of that quality today, or of any of those three opponents to be honest and now, desperately need to win again. They travel to champions Corinthians and a strong Fluminese in the next two midweeks and really have to take some pressure off those. But equally, Vitoria might view Santos as at their most vulnerable and I suspect we will see two teams looking for maximum points. This is traditionally a high scoring fixture (last three meetings here all 4+ goals) and this can follow suit, probably a home win with both teams scoring.

 

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Santos won that 5-2 in a match where there were a host of big chances, nine saves, the woodwork struck and 23 attempts inside the box and we can expect another open encounter this evening.

Ceara need a win and soon, but more chance of it coming at home and they entertain Palmeiras this weekend, they cannot go full out v them, Cruzeiro ( see below) and Botafogo all inside 8 days and they now have to pick their battle and be pragmatic. Botafogo gained their first win in four away to Vasco da Gama on Saturday and will be eager to build on that tonight ( three points should take them into the top half of the table) and to make the most of three good looking match ups ahead of the month break for the World Cup. Goalkeeper Jeffereson spoke about that ahead of what is a big game for him, ashe will become the player with the third most appearances for Botafogo tonight and he wants the win to go along with it.

 

1.75 units Vitoria BA - Chapecoense "over" 2.5 goals 2.09 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

1.5 units Botafogo -1 ball 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

Good Luck.