There is a follow up newsletter today @ 11.30 UK time with a look at the Football League playoffs which start this evening.
How good was Lionel Messi last night ? A masterclass performance, on a different level and then some, to every other player on the pitch and this was a Champions League semi final, not some meaningless league game, simply sublime.......only mistake he made all day was getting that haircut !
Just Europa League for now ......
Napoli- Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk
I think that the visitors have been underestimated , they are very tight defensively and ahead of their win over Club Brugge I spoke about their desire to make their mark both domestically and internationally and the fitness advantage they hold over the other three clubs in the competition ......
We have spoken previously about the huge motivation that the Eastern European teams have for this competion and the fitness advantage they hold once past the first knockout stage round , when the benefit of a lengthy winter break starts to kick in and all that will go double with the CL incentive factored in. Dnipro have replaced Metalist as the third big power in Ukranian football and are looking to make inroads into Shakhtar and Dynamo , they are very tight defensively and have not conceded in seven home starts in 2015, or at all in 437 minutes and only twice in 11 home and away starts, keeping a cleansheet in the first leg and in defeating both Ajax and Olympiakos here in Kiev, where they are forced to play home Europa League ties. The hosts have collected a bit of a reputation for the physical side of their game this season, having collected ten yellow cards more than any other team in the competition, but it was their football which caught the eye in the first leg and they were unfortunate not to have come away with a win, after dominated long periods and running Brugge a little ragged through the closing stages. Squad wise, the hosts feel they are in their best shape of the season, having had a lot of injuries to deal with previously and they are now looking to kick on both here and domestically.
This is their 18th start since the long winter break and they should be more or less at premium fitness levels, they have conceded just twice in eleven starts and one of those was a domistic cup game I suspect they were "happy" to led slide with league and Europa League priorities. My instinct is to take the visitors with the handicap start, as I feel that Napoli have made a habit of starting slowly in recent games ( took 50 mins to score against the 10 men of Milan, were 3-0 down at the break to Empoli and behind through 30 mins at home to Sampdoria) and with Dnipro so tough to break down anyway, it might take time for this to get going and that will suit the visitors. Dnipro are more than just a defensive unit , Nikola Kalinic and Eugen Seleznev are prolific upfront and Yevhen Konoplyanka on the left wing has had half the bigger clubs in the EPL trailing him. Europa League semi final first leg games have not been as tight as those in the Champions League, which we looked at on Tuesday, but have still tended to take 30 minutes or so to get going, with teams desperate not to concede early and Rafael Benitez has also erred on the side of caution in his previous European semi finals (first legs). All things considered, I feel the best value is Dnipro +0.5 ball 2.03 First Half betting asian line/Sportmarket. You should be able to get the same (better?) by betting the HT draw and away on the exchanges later in the day, once liquidity increases.
Sevilla love this tournament (UEFA Cup/EL) and are looking to win it for the fourth time, the first two titles came back to back and they have the opportunity to repeat that feat, being the current holders, bonus for them this year is that it will carry with it entry to the group stage of the Champions League, something which they now look unlikely to earn in La Liga, where Valencia, by virtue of their better h2h record, effectively hold a four point lead in the race for one remaining spot, with three rounds left to play.
They have been very strong at home , not losing for 14 months, something we spoke about ahead of the visit from Barcelona last month ......
I don't like to oppose the Big 2 ( 3 ?) in Spain too often, they just do not lose enough games to make it viable. but I cannot resist it today. Barcelona play PSG twice and the 4th and 5th best teams in La Liga all inside the next ten days and with the knowledge that they will stay top of the table regardless of what happens this evening, a normal club would be forgiven for perhaps letting their focus dip a little for the trip to Seville. But of course, the Catalan giants are no normal team.
The hosts are 5th, just a single point adrift of Valencia and they will give everything to secure what still appears a single remaining Champions League spot. They are 11-4-0 at home and have conceded a league low 7 goals here this season, they have actually not lost at home for over 14 months, since ( yes, you guessed it !) Barcelona last visited. Sevilla led there, but the visitors eventually eased home 4-1 in terrible conditions.
I feel the hosts are much improved since and whilst still a work in progress, are getting better on almost a game by game basis and I do not feel we can say the same about the top 3, who have come back to the pack, or at least the next two a little. the gap has lessened.
Sevilla have kept seven clean sheets in their last eight home games and whilst wins have been few and far between ( still better than most, with 3 victories in 10 home starts), they have scored in each of their last 10 starts against Barce and Real.
It feels like Barce's recent form has dipped a little, at least defensively and they have conceded in 13 of their last 22 starts and one goal this evening for the hosts, might even be enough for them this time round given how much better they look defensively.
They drew that 2-2, following up with wins over Zenit and Rayo Vallecano, before that home record finally fell to Real Madrid last weekend, they lost 3-2 but fought hard all the way and the unbeaten run had to end sometime. In many ways it might have made things simpler, as this competition is now clearly their best and perhaps only route into the Champions League. The same is true of Fiorentina of course, but I am very confident that the hosts are the stronger team and in better form, the visitors are 2-1-5 in their last five starts and have conceded three goals in four of those and the form of a couple of key players has dropped off alarmingly. For example, Mohamed Salah, who is on loan from Chelsea, had six goals and two assists from his first 9 appearances, just a single goal and no assists from his last 11. I favour Sevilla to win, but feel the odds are about right, especially as I feel that the hosts will be in no rush, they have prioritised a clean sheet in previous semi final home legs and like to play on the counter in any case, the two home goals in the win over Zenit here came very late and they were happy to play out a cautious opening 30 minutes against Valencia at this stage last year.
As soon as the cameras switched to the stadium that night you got the feeling that it was impossible for Sevilla not to do the business, the atmoshere was electic, the noise incredible and it is a cliche, but the crowd weer a 12th man and we can expect similar this evening. They are very dangerous from set pieces (top scorers in the competition from dead balls) and Fiorentina showed a real weakness on the left flank defensively in recent heavy defeats to Cagliari and Napoli and both are areas the hosts can exploit. Home win, but it might take a little time so I prefer to hold out for a better quote .......1.5 units Sevilla -0.75 ball asian line/Sportmarket as soon as the quote hits 2.20-2.25, as long as they are not already leading and we are playing (as always) 11 v 11.............were they to fall behind before that, I would take the first asian line quoted above 2.0 for the same stake.
Thursday May 7th
Email #1 @ 10.00 with a round up of everything happening today.
Email #2 @ 11.30 with my look at the Football League Playoffs.
Friday May 8th @ 10.00 with main focus on Ligue 2.
Saturday May 9th
Email #1 @ 10.00 Premier League and Playoff action.
Email #2 @ 13.00 with the rest of the Saturday football , including MLS and possibly the first round of Brazilian football.
Email #3 @16.00 with notes for the Sunday morning J-League games.
Sunday May 10th
Email #1 @ 10.00 which will feature PGA Golf and early Sunday football.
Email #2 @ 13.00 with football from the Americas !
Please note the additional Thursday email and the third on Saturday, I might shift this forward a few minutes and include some half time updates from the EPL games, depending on how the week plays out and how much energy I have left following the Friday night game at Griffin Park ! If that is the case, I will update the sending time in the first Saturday newsletter.
Good Luck.
