France : Ligue 2
We are coming off just the fourth full midweek round in the last three seasons and there is a certain amount of guesswork involved in terms of what sort of condition teams will be in, we know that clubss struggle with Monday-Friday, but at least all teams played on Tuesday and are in the same boat this time. The Friday fixtures after the last midweek round averaged a high 3.0 goals per game and nine of the ten road teams scored, five managing at least two goals, but one round is not much to go on and probably means little, but I have kind of leaned that way, taking one road team, one "over" and a home side who have recently won a "shootout", albeit a one sided one, against a top visiting team.
Chateauroux- Brest
In the midweek notes .....
We have discussed Chateauroux's away day woes many times, most recently ahead of their trip to Ajaccio .....
Chateauroux who earned a late reprieve from relegation last season, followed that defeat with a draw with Orleans, but we already know their strength is at home, on the road, they have won just once in 45 Ligue 2 starts, scoring an average of 0.73 goals per game and conceding 1.71 over that massive sample of matches and something very strange happens to them when they board that team bus.
Chat arrive without suspended central defender Fabien Boyer and midfield starlet Hamza Sakhi, who at only just 18 yo is getting a lot of attention and also missing hugely experience fellow midfielder Sébastian Roudet and holding player Maxime Darrieux to injury, which leaves then VERY short across the middle of the park and this is an excellent opportunity for the hosts to close in on the top three.
They drew that 1-1 and of course, then lost 5-2 at home to Nancy next time out ! They have Boyer and Sakhi back now, but Roudet and Darrieux (see all four above) are still absent and I can see Nimes getting as much joy through midfield as Nancy did on Friday. Striker Terence Makengo is also sidelined, he has scored one of only two away goals Chat have scored this season, earning them that point in Corsica. The hosts have drawn three straight home starts since beating Angers on opening day, but two of those finished 2-2 and it is difficult to see the visitors scoring twice on the road against anyone.
They lost that 1-0 and now sit at the foot of Ligue 2, they earned a late reprieve from relegation last season and the squad to play at this level was hastily assembled, made up of players largely unwanted elsewhere and a mixture of inexperience and those a little long in the tooth. They have "always" been terrible on the road ( see above), but we have not seen an awful lot of evidence that this time round they can be saved by their home form. Last season they won eight at home before the end of February, but just one more after that, despite three more points having been enough to have saved them from relegation and they look weaker, especially in midfield and this is where teams are steamrolling them, even here on home soil. Their only home win came over fellow relegation fodder Clermont, they trailed in that until late and the visitors avenged that loss a few days later, winning 3-1 here in the cup, Nancy scored five here last Friday and it feels like they have simply got used to losing and now it hardly matters if they are playing home or away.
Team news is identical to Tuesday, apart from the additional loss of promising young defensive midfielder Hassane Kamara and now a lightweight midfield is looking threadbare, with one or two youngsters set to be called up from the youth team and if called upon, maybe even asked to play in midfield out of position on their debuts !
Brest are a very strong squad and one I sided with pretty much from January onwards, picking up on their improvement and strength of squad quite quickly, he said modestly and back in February wrote ahead of a trip to Bastia.....
"Now another fellow struggler travels to the island looking for a survival boost. Brest are just one place above the home side, but have an extra ten points in the bag, plus a game in hand and arrive here on the back of a win over Auxerre last week, their first in almost four months, which has give them a major confidence boost. On Friday, they meet the other bottom three team , when they host Laval and three points today would not only give them further momentum, but lift the pressure on them to win that fixture. They were a Ligue 1 side last season and have a lot more quality in their ranks than the hosts, although neither side has made the transition to Ligue 2, CAB have been unable to strengthen and make the step up, Brest came into the campaign having lost their last 11 starts in the top flight and despite a decent enough start to this season, have been unable to address the overall slide. But sometimes you have to hit the bottom ( or second bottom !) before climbing and on paper they remain a class above CAB. Coach Alex Dupont has been "able" to omit by choice, six players who played Ligue 1 football last season, including two with 53 starts appearances between them ( Mendy and Ayite), two others left behind are on loan from Monaco and Villarreal and these are just options that the hosts could only dream of."
They have a touch of quality amongst their ranks and pose a bit threat from set pieces, especially through Bruno Grougi , who has seven goals and two assists since the upturn in fortune, he delivers a killer dead ball and I am amazed he has not "provided" more goals.
On the final day of the season, I rounded up their progress over the previous three months ....
Now for Brest, at the end of January they were second from bottom, with just 20 points from 22 starts, over the 13 games since ( now, hopefully, it makes sense), they have collected a whopping 30 points with a 9-3-1 record, far and away the best form in Ligue 2. I was impressed with a point at Nimes on Friday, to go away to a team at this stage of the season who are fighting for survival and go a goal down took a lot of spirit to come back from, especially with nothing but pride to play for. I doubt few other teams would have denied Nimes on Friday, but Brest played with great energy and I suspect they wish there were another ten games left to play this season.
They were playing Chateauroux on that day and with the visitors fighing for survival Brest were huge odds (2.70 +) to win .....
What choice do they (Chat) have but to go for this today, good news for them is that Brest have nothing to play for, bad news is that they are in fantastic form, have only lost twice in 15 starts , collecting 33 points and one of those was a home loss to promoted Caen, who they outplayed for 90 minutes in their last home start and got back on track last week with a road win at Lens, another team who will be playing top flight football next season. I would argue right now that possibly Metz aside, Brest are playing the best football in Ligue 2, will not want to lose at home a second time in a row and are looking to lay down a marker for next season.
I think that Brest are an amazing price today, Chat will have to gamble at some stage and are simply not very good defensively, they just cannot keep Brest out for 90 minutes IMO, so will need two goals to win this (at least). If news comes through that results elsewhere are going against them late and this not their way, it would not surprise me if they, at least subconsciously , gave up. Like last week with Dijon, I have to again take two bets (home win and "over").
They won 3-0 and it is hard to think how they could have been any more impressive over the last 14-15 weeks of the campaign.
On the opening day of this season I wrote ....They have a young and fast improving backline and look strong in all areas, the signing of Alexandre Cuvillier from Nancy in the summer looks very good business indeed, he assisted for a lot of goals and I described him as an "important cog in the Nancy system" last season, when he made 35 appearances and they have added pace in other offensive areas. They look stronger if anything and it is hard to see them outside the top five.
They are without Cuvillier again today and will be a little stronger once he is fully fit, but even allowing for his absence, the visitors look to have far too much talent in midfield for Chat and I see them dominationg central areas today. The "bad news" is that Brest have yet to win on the road (0-3-1), actually they have yet to score a goal away from home ! However, they have had chances to win a couple of those and definitely look one of the strongest L2 squads, they did take a long while to get going last season and it might be some time yet before we see them at their very best, but anything less than three points today will probably be viewed by them as points dropped and I expect them to win.
1.5 units Brest -0.25 ball 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket .
Chateauroux: Bonnefoi, Souchaud - Bonnart, Hountondji, Nestor, Obiang, Bain, Boyer - Dudouit, Chamed, Plessis, Zola, Sakhi, Koffi/ Mauricio - Nnomo, Thil.
Brest:Thébaux - Falette, Traoré, Belaud, Martial, Moimbé, Makonda - Grougi, Ramaré, Perez, Doumbia, Khaled - Verdier, Laborde, Samassa, Alphonse, Sea.
Good Luck.
