Two teams who has spent extended periods in Segunda in recent seasons, Real look to have re-established themselves as a Primera team in their third season back in the top flight and sit in midtable, 11 points above the relegation places and much nearer to a Champions League position. Celta spent five seasons in the wilderness, before finally earning promotion last season and will be fighting tooth and nail to preserve their status, sitting just a single point above the drop zone and facing a six pointer at Osasuna next week and with a visit from Valencia to follow, they will be greedily eyeing up the three points on offer today. We spoke about them ahead of a pair of Copa del Rey matches at the end of 2012, the last of which is reproduced at the foot of the email. They played well in both and have been fairly strong at home all season ( 4-3-2) with the two losses coming against highflying duo Malaga and Betis, they could and perhaps should, have got something from both, creating plenty of chances and being wasteful in front of goal and I think only the strongest visitors are going to come here and win. Having said that, they still have to host Real Madrid, Atletico and Barcelona and really need to give themselves a buffer over the next six weeks or so. They are without central defender Andres Tunez ( 18-0-0) and right back Hugo Mallo (17-0-0) this afternoon, but have received a boost with the early return to the squad of left back Daniel Pranjic.

Real arrive without Midfielder David Zurutuza (10-1-1) and key central defender Mikel Gonzalez( 19-2-0), his loss will be hard felt as two other centre backs, Ion Ansotegi and Liassine Cadamuro are unavialable and there is no other cover, Inigo Martinez is the only recognised central defender in the squad and it is likely that a midfielder will drop back to play alongside him. Obviously this is far from ideal and gives Celta something to target, we spoke (see below) about their delivery from set pieces and they can take advantage. 1.5 units Celta Vigo -0.25 ball 2.04 asian line/ Ibramarket.

Real Sociedad: Bravo, Zubikarai, Carlos Martínez, Dani Estrada, Iñigo, De la Bella, José Ángel, Elustondo, Markel, Illarra, Ros, Pardo, Xabi Prieto, Vela, Agirretxe, Ifrán, Chory Castro and Griezmann.

Good Luck.

Written December 12th

Celta did us a favour in the previous round with a 3-0 second leg defeat of Almeira, ahead of which I wrote ....
I am pretty certain that Celta only really have eyes on survival this season having got back into the top flight, but you could also argue a similar case for Almeria, who are top two in "Segunda" and looking for a return to Primera themselves. let's accept that both have other long term aims and forget that. The visitors hold a 2-0 lead from the first leg, so will be happy to lose by one goal tonight. Celta rested everyone for that match, not one of the players who started played in the win at Zaragoza on Monday and they only averaged three league appearances between them and many of those were from off the bench. Almeria had much the better of that game, but Celta held out until the second half and caused some problems especially aerially from set pieces and "took the lead" through one, but the "goal" was disallowed. They fell behind and then were reduced to ten men..... game over !

Having played on Monday and with a league game this weekend, we could have expected them to go with a similar line up tonight, but they have built up some momentum and look to want to keep it, they have named an 18 man squad (see below) which includes 10 of the starters and six of the bench, from the Zaragoza match and they look to be treating this with great respect.

They were really up for that game and so too were the crowd, so we can expect a similar approach from both tonight. The hosts do not have a La Liga fixture until Monday, so can afford to name a strong squad for this high profile match and look to be getting a big handicap start , in eight home starts this season they have yet to concede more than a single goal and Real will surely be looking at the bigger picture and know that they can get the job done in the second leg, almost regardless of what happens here. They have had a busy December playing Atletico , Ajax and a tough come from behind win at Valladolid all in the last 11 days and will surely rotate their starting eleven this evening. The hosts have had little travelling to do recently with two home fixtures and a short hop over to Bilbao in the last 16 days and should be as fresh, as any newly promoted team can be at this stage of the campaign, they will still only really have survival as a target for this season IMO, but will surely want a big showing tonight, in what is their first home match against one of the big two for some time.The pair did meet in Madrid about seven weeks ago with Real easing home 2-0, but I expect things to be closer this evening. Real have looked vunerable from set pieces and Celta have good delivery and can exploit this weakness, especially if the visitors change the backline around a little as anticipated , with Nacho at left back and Adan in goal, like for their last Kings Cup tie. Some late tests for Celta, so no confirmed team news, but in front of a sell out crowd, they will surely field their strongest possible line up. 1 unit Celta Vigo +1 goal 2.33 asian line.