Brazil: Serie A:

Vitoria BA - Atletico Mineiro

Hosts had a very pleasing 5th placed finish last season, mainly down to their ultra strong home form (11-6-2), that will be very hard to replicate and they have not won either of their two home starts so far, coming into this on the back of a home loss to Palmeiras at the weekend. Three of their next four starts are very tough road trips to Botafogo, Goias and champions Cruzeiro and failure to win this evening, is likely to leave them in big trouble. They are without left back Juan and striker William Henrique, but will be much stronger than for the weekend, with Souza, Dinei , Luiz Gustavo, Ayrton and Vinícius all returning to the squad.

Atletico made a poor start to their campaign, but have got back on track with consecutive wins over Cruzeiro and Santos, they put a lot of effort into those and short of key players this evening, I feel their focus might turn towards their two upcoming home games in the next six days. They have made the trip without goalkeeper Victor, who is coming off two MOTM performances, his replacement Giovanni did make 10 starts last season conceding an average of 1.3 goals per game, also out is central defender Leonardo Silva. Since the start of last season Atletico have collected 1.65 points when he plays, that drops to just 0.89 per game without him. The only match I could find that both their two best/most experienced defenders missed last season was a 4-1 loss to Cruzeiro, the victors were far and away the best team in Brazil , so you might not read too much into that, but I watched the game and with a little more effort and luck, Cruz could easily have scored 6+ in that match. Atletico are also short of a lot of talent at the other end of the pitch with Jô, Ronaldinho Gaúcho and Diego Tardelli absent and this looks a very tough ask for the visitors.

1.5 units Victoria -0.25 ball 2.07 asian line/Ibramarket.

Vitoria:– Wilson , Gustavo;Nino, Ayrton, Euller , Tarracha;  Rodrigo Defendi, Matheus Salustiano, Alemão , Luiz Gustavo;  José Welison, Josa , Neto Coruja;  Hugo, Léo , Mauri;  Alan Pinheiro, Marquinhos, Willie, Caio, Vinícius, Souza , Dinei.