Brazil Serie A betting preview: Gremio- Chapecoense

Sep 21, 2014
football betting tips -
 
Ahead of Gremio's recent home defeat of Atletico Paranaense I wrote ....
 
Hosts have won all three home starts under Big Phil Scolari and the road win at Flamengo over the weekend took them onto the fringes of the Copa Libertadores places and now they have some real momentum having won 4 from 5 (only defeat in that sequence was narrowly, away to leaders Cruzeiro) and with three of their next four at home starting tonight, they will certainly have their eye on second spot.
 
We discussed them ahead of that trip to Cruz ......

Gremio won their first match under new coach Phil Scolari (goodness, that guy is never out of work very long !) at the weekend and his involvement will increase interest in this game and hopefully encourage Cruz to turn it on. The visitors have a home match with Corinthians up next and again, I would argue that for them, that game, in front of their own supporters is more important and certainly the easier of the two fixtures. The visitors left four regulars at home, including Barcos and Rodriguinho who have scored seven of just 13 Gremio goals this season and Big Phil also said that two players coming back from lengthy injuries will get game time from the bench tonight and it looks like the weekend game is , indeed , being given clear priority. Cruz could win this comfortably on a going day reagrdless of that, but it is a nice extra bonus.

 
I have to say that Gremio were very unlucky to lose that game and had enough chances to have won, left winger Dudu was causing all sorts of problems and looks to have thrived under Scolari, having lost confidence under the former coach. The win at Flamengo was even more noteworthy as they were without top scorer Hernan Barcos, defender Matias Rodriguez and midfielder Ramiro ( no wins in the eight matches, five defeats, he had missed previously over the last two seasons), both are set to return this evening which will not only freshen up, but upgrade options.
 

Atletico have lost their way since we spoke highly of their adventurous play on the road earlier in the season, scouting reports are in, opponents know what to expect and they are now being caught out on the break and have conceded nine in their last four road starts, this is a very young squad, I think the youngest in Serie A, with an average age of sub 22 ( leaders Cruzeiro have the oldest average at circa 27) and once youngsters lose confidence, it is very hard to get back. The visitors have not won here in more than a decade, are 0-3-7 on their last ten visits, conceding an average of 2.4 goals, three or more in 4 of their last five. Actually, home and away they have only won once in 11 h2h meetings, which was the reverse fixture this season, but the two are now heading in different directions and I fully expect Gremio to avenge that this evening.
 

They have recorded a pair of 0-0 draws since, at home to Santos and away to Atletico Mineiro and they have not conceded a goal now in five league outings, they are not exactly flowing at the other end of the pitch, but there is good reason to feel they might this evening and three points should see them return to a Copa Libertadores spot.
 
The visitors have given themselves a little breathing space over the drop zone with a home defeat of Sport Recife and fine point at highflying Corinthians in midweek, it will be very hard for them to raise their game again tonight, for the third time in little over a week , especially given the quailty of opposition they will have faced inisde four days and bearing in mind they have two home games in the next week, A-P in midweek, followed by Criciuma, games where they have a real chance of picking up 4-6 hugely valuable points, if they do not leave everything on the battle field of Porto Alegre.
 

It was a similar situation going into their away game with Coritiba earlier this month ......
 

We discussed Chapecoense quite a bit early in the season and how it was all going to be about the home games for them and coming off a tough sequence of games, their focus could quickly switch to the visit from Sport Recife at the weekend if they fall behind this evening. They have already lost six on the road and failed to score in 5 of their last 7, a very motivated host to win this one.
 
They lost that 3-0 and something similar would not surprise tonight, as I feel strongly that motivation might fade if they fall behind.
 

1.5 units Gremio -1 ball 2.06 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

Good Luck.

 
 

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Country: 
Brazil
Sport: 
Football

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