I am not thrilled by the penultimate round of matches in Brazil and feel that most of them have been correctly priced. However, I cannot let the season pass without returning to newsletter favourite and champions Cruzeiro ,who have served us so very well all year long. They have stepped off the gas recently and took the opportunity to rest players for the games against Ponte Preta (2-2 ) here and at Vasco da Gama ( 2-1 defeat) last week. However, this is their final home start and I feel they will want to put on a show, coach Marcelo Oliveira admitted as much, he said for this match the "supporters will be here (in numbers) and we will play to full strength". There will be a party atmosphere and I expect the hosts to put on a performance. We have spoken several times over the second half of the campaign ,about only really seeing the best of Cruz in the bigger games, when they were a little more motivated. It was understandable, the schedule in Brazil is brutal and it is best to pace yourself and to be honest, they were a class apart and could win most games playing in first or second gear. I do not think that will be the case this evening and with only defensive midfielder Nilton ( 30-7-0) missing, the coach has already named his starting eleven, his strongest possible line up.... Fábio; Ceará, Dedé, Bruno Rodrigo , Egídio; Lucas Silva, Souza, Everton Ribeiro , Ricardo Goulart; Dagoberto and Borges.
 

They are defensively a little more solid when Nilton plays, but have scored 20 goals in the six matches he has sat out, 12 in three home starts and are, it might be far to say, a little more adventurous in his absence. Tonight's opponent Bahia, are not safe from relegation and would love to not need a result at home to Fluminense next week, but if Cruz are up for this and the signs are that they are, it is very hard to see the visitors getting a result and once they fall behind, it might be more about saving as much as possible for the final game of the season.
 

Striker Wallyson (19-3-5) and central defender Lucas Fonseca (22-0-0) are both major doubts and might not be risked, defensive midfielder Feijão (16-1-1 .... incredibly, Bahia have lost 11 of 21 when he plays 20 minutes or less, just 2 from 15 otherwise) and striker Obina (10-2-1) are suspended and centre back Rafael Donato cannot play against his former club, which is a loss if Fonseca doesn't make it.
 

I have to take a little on Cruzeiro and they could run up a big score if they decided to really turn it on.
 

1.25 units Cruzeiro -0.75 ball 1.80-1.82 asian line /Ibramarket and if you can find these.....

 

0.5 units Cruzeiro to score over 2.5 goals 3.25-3.50 and 0.25 units Cruzeiro to score over 4.5 goals 17.0-19.0 (massive odds, if only these were freely available !!!!) .

 

Cruz have scored five in three of their last 11 home starts.

 

Good Luck.